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ScottDCP
08-09-2012, 11:20 PM
My first guess as to the Opening Day Roster:

QB Fitz,Young, Smith
RB Jackson, Spiller, Choice
FB McIntyre
WR Johnson, Nelson, Graham, Jones, Hagan, Easley
TE Chandler, Smith, Dickerson
C Wood, Asper
OG Levitre, Urbik, Rinehart, Jasper
OT Glenn, Pears, Hairston, Young

DT Williams, Dareus, Heard, Johnson
DE Williams, Anderson, Kelsay, Merriman, Carrington
MLB Sheppard, White
OLB Barnett, Moats, Carder, Bradham, Morrison
S Byrd, Wilson, Searcy, Scott
CB Williams, Gilmore, McGee, McKelvin, Rogers, Brooks

K Lindell
P Powell
LS Sanborn


How I'd like it to look:

QB Fitz,Thigpen, Young
RB Jackson, Spiller, Choice
FB McIntyre
WR Johnson, Nelson, Graham, Jones, Hagan, Easley, Roosevelt
TE Chandler, Smith
C Wood, Asper
OG Levitre, Urbik, Rinehart, Jasper
OT Glenn, Pears, Hairston, Young

DT Williams, Dareus, Heard, Johnson
DE Williams, Anderson, Kelsay, Merriman, Carrington
MLB Sheppard, White
OLB Barnett, Moats, Carder, Bradham, Morrison
S Byrd, Wilson, Searcy, Scott
CB Williams, Gilmore, McGee, McKelvin, Rogers, Brooks

K Lindell
P Moorman
LS Sanborn

Just guessing, based on camp chatter and interpretation of coach interviews. I disagree with my expectation by two slots.

I would not be surprised at all if Morrison, Scott, or Easley get released. Among the guys I would expect to see play, barring injury. On the O-Line, I would not be surprised to see Asper, Jasper, or Young going as well, but in these 6 cases I do not have a clear picture of where their replacement might lie.

This is likely to change.

ScottDCP
08-10-2012, 10:01 AM
First modifications:

Forgot to highlight Roosevelt on my list of like-to-haves.

Also, they will keep Potter for kickoffs instead of Dickerson at TE, going with two tight ends because it turns out they never use 3.

Pruitt
08-12-2012, 06:17 PM
Love seeing the names "Williams" and "Dareus."

You know, this team is due a healthy season. If it happens, there's a chance that December will finally be fun again.

ScottDCP
08-13-2012, 05:02 PM
OK, time to update my misses...

The Bills have released Michael Jasper (http://www.buffalobills.com/news/article-1/Bills-release-OL-Jasper/83af54e4-fe66-4434-8842-e29b6dc4212c), a pleasant fellow who turns heads by waking up.

New projection:

QB Fitz,Young, Smith
RB Jackson, Spiller, Choice
FB McIntyre
WR Johnson, Nelson, Graham, Jones, Hagan, Easley
TE Chandler, Smith,
C Wood
OG Levitre, Urbik, Rinehart
OT Glenn, Pears, Hairston, Young

DT Williams, Dareus, Heard, Johnson
DE Williams, Anderson, Kelsay, Merriman, Carrington
MLB Sheppard, White, McKillop
OLB Barnett, Moats, Carder, Bradham,
S Byrd, Wilson, Searcy, Scott
CB Williams, Gilmore, McGee, McKelvin, Rogers, Brooks

K Lindell
K/O Potter
P Powell
LS Sanborn


I think that's 53.

Interesting names not making the roster if my guesses turn out to be accurate:

Kirk Morrison
Zebrie Sanders
Mark Asper
Tyler Thigpen
Brian Moorman
Torrell Troup
Colin Brown
Dorin Dickerson, whose hands are iffy
Fendi Onobun, who is as athletic as Dickerson, but still a basketball player.
Danny Batten
Johnny White
Ruvell Martin
David Clowney
Dwan Edwards



Qualifiers:

Cowney and Hagan are both getting more reps than Easley, Roosevelt, and Aiken. Clowney to bring him up to speed, Hagan because he is likely to make the team. I still expect Clowney to be cut in favor of Easley, provided the latter does the unlikely and stays healthy.

I am guessing some youth for veterancy cuts in Morrison, Moorman, Edwards, Clowney, and Martin.

Martin's averageness as a receiver is no longer outweighed by his performance on kicking teams with influx of good young athletes.

Moorman is this year or next, as his frequency of bad kicks has increased each of last three years. Buddy leans on Walsh - rather cut a guy a year too early than a year too late.

Edwards and Morrison more expensive than projected replacements, expect no dropoff. Morrison is now behind Moats, and if he stays there, they will want a young guy as backup.

Clowney is really fast but not a really good receiver, and based only on what I have seen when the bills play the Jets, not quite enough on kicking teams to make a difference for him.

Sanders and Asper drafted this year. Sanders is fifth on OT depth chart right now, and only playing RT. If he can't swing, he will be on a practice squad unless someone else thinks they can teach him better. Asper is a 6'7" interior guy. Buffalo's backup center is its starting RG, and they love their backup OG. So, no need to keep an extra one of those. They'll try to stash Colin Brown on practice squad, and use him if Wood or Urbik break their legs again this year.

Choice and White are equivalent runners, with Choice maybe being a hair better. White is better on kicking teams. Might make me wrong because of that.

I have been waiting for McIntyre to get cut for missing blocks in the backfield since he got here. Not happening this year. They are in fact trying to use him as a receiver right now.

Troup can't get out of the nurse's office.

Batten not good enough.

I would love to see Young replace Smith in the Wildcat, and by that I mean not ever run the Wildcat. I still think Smith is the worst receiver they can keep, outside of Martin, the worst QB, the third best kickoff returner on a good day (behind at least Rogers and McKelvin,) and taking up way too much money.

The biggest stretch I am suggesting is that they keep only 2 tight ends. Chandler catches, Smith blocks. If they go 3 TE, who are they fooling by bringing in that third guy and not throwing to him? Use the third or fourth OT and get an OT on LB/SS mismatch in the run game.

ScottDCP
08-13-2012, 05:07 PM
Some other young guys who might end up on your practice squad:

CBs Prince Miller and Isaiah Green. They both make lots of plays in practice, but don't have the measurables required to stay on the active roster of a good team all year.

Safety Nick Saenz. Same as the CBs.

Kamar Aiken, Naamaan Roosevelt. Fitz LOVEs Roosevelt, and is constantly politicking to get him on the roster when the issue is not resolved. Catches Everything. Aiken is really solid, but a step slower than you would like. That said, I would take him over a third of the guys who make rosters every year because they run fast, but can't catch or block.

ScottDCP
08-13-2012, 07:15 PM
Just read something from Bruce DeHaven on the kid punter:

I'm not sure when or where it will be, but he's going to be a punter in this league.

Looks like Moorman's in, which pleases me.

Swami
08-14-2012, 09:04 PM
Actually, Scott, I'm quite ready for Moorman to go. I thought he really tailed off last year and the latter stages of the prior year. Easley's the interesting guy for me - I can see him making someday with some team, but can understand why the Bills might not keep him. And Troup - what a sad story. Who knows what his potential is/was?

msclemons
08-15-2012, 01:27 AM
McKillop was a really solid depth guy for the 49ers. Great on special teams too. He got injured and caught up in the numbers game at LB but I think folks in Buffalo will like him.

ScottDCP
08-15-2012, 11:14 AM
A couple of developments in recent practices that may affect things:

Kellen Heard has been getting 'dinged' in the lower half every few days for a couple weeks now. Could prevent his being kept.

Dickerson and Onobun are getting some focus. Might mean they replace Easley. Not yet sure. Had his knee not gotten wrecked, Mike Caussin would likely have kept all three off the roster, but he's PUP right now, and no better than fifty fifty to make it back this year.

ScottDCP
08-15-2012, 11:15 AM
Actually, Scott, I'm quite ready for Moorman to go. I thought he really tailed off last year and the latter stages of the prior year. Easley's the interesting guy for me - I can see him making someday with some team, but can understand why the Bills might not keep him. And Troup - what a sad story. Who knows what his potential is/was?

I have always liked Moorman because he isn't much bigger than me and is super fast by punter standards. Also, I have a soft spot for the team's Player of the Decade for the '00s.

ScottDCP
08-16-2012, 03:50 PM
Another thought - Keeping Sanders at backup OT instead of a third TE. The 12 year old kickoff dude has to take a spot for somebody, and it isn't going to be a CB, DE, LB, QB, or RB. WR? I think that number is determined by how well Easley plays in the games. If he lights it up,, they might keep 6. Roosevelt, Martin, Aiken, and Clowney are definitely going to be looking for work in a few weeks. All could end up on your favorite teams. Roosevelt and Aiken would likely do the most good.

I think they keep 7 LB, 9 DL, and 5 WR. 3 QB, 4 RB, 5 CB, 4 safeties, counting Bryan Scott as a safety even though he is going to be playing LB almost exclusively. 4 kicking team guys. That's 41. Got 13 left. 8 or 9 OL? 2 or 3 TE? I go 2 TE and 9 OL now.

I have Carrington sticking at DL, but unlikely to dress on game day. Kyle Moore could supplant him, but hasn't really done anything to separate himself.

ScottDCP
08-18-2012, 08:39 PM
Thoughts after the second preseason game:

Prince Miller will end up on a practice squad.

It's possible the following DBs might be wearing PS hats this year:

Prince Miller
Isaiah Green
Nick Saenz
Nick Sukay
Delano Howell

All young, good athletes. Largely without pedigree and in need of experience. Each can play kicking teams, and will likely get a late-year injury replacement shot if any.

Also, in listenking to Tasker and Bentley call the game, Naamaan Rooosevelt might be a darkhorse candidate to push Martin and Easley out of the way, and make it if they keep 6 WRs. He is highly thought of by both the QB and the special teams coach. Has to work in his favor if both are politicking for him.

And Brad Smith got schooled by college kids in coverage against the Vikings. Seriously, stop pretending he can play QB.

ScottDCP
08-26-2012, 10:51 AM
Some movement after yesterday's game:

Marcus Easley and Kamar Aiken droppedeasy ones in the last four minutes. They will be sent packing.

Kirk Morrison played very well as a backup MLB. He is a starter and will always look great against a full roster of backups.

Naamaan Roosevelt looked very good, as usual. He makes it hard on the coaches, that's for sure.

Delano Howell is getting a real shot to be safety #4. I think he will make the team at first, and be replaced by a waived veteran before the first game.

Kyle Moore looked better than Jarron Gilbert at DE. Robert Eddins will probably be on the practice squad again.

Nobody on the backup offensive line outside of Chad Rhinehart should feel secure, although Colin Brown looked better than the rest.

Among the DTs, Kellen Heard (inexpensive) and Alex Carrington (moderately expensive) looked as invisible as Dwan Edwards (expensive.) Look for Edwards on the August 31 waiver wire if Heard stays healthy this week.

MLB Chris White didn't appear to have much of a tangible impact. Scott McKillop did. Welcome to Buffalo, Mr. McKillop. Thank you for your efforts, Mr. White. I fear you will be the last LB cut, since Bryan Scott is going to be listed there for the year, and will not count as a safety anymore.

Johnny White has been injured all summer, in small ways. Tashard Choice is a superior runner in any case. The question is this: since the third RB is almost guaranteed to be almost excusively a kicking game player, does Choice's lack of contribution there work against him? I think he is as good as Spiller, if less explosive, but he is not going to take any carries away form him or from Jackson. Interesting choice. I recall Jerry JOnes getting rid of him bfor that reason, although the difference there is that Choice should have been the first or second RB.

I still think Spiller is best as a receiver.

The six year old kicker hits that thing a mile, and he's not giving coverage guys a chance to make an impact.

I still don't buy Moats as a linebacker in space. He is a pass rusher, for all that he is shorter than all the rest of those.

Moorman looks to have improved on short punts, tremendously. Tasker said he's having the best summer of any punter he has ever witnessed. Interesting.

Zebrie Sanders? That wasn't a hold, and he looks an awful lot like he could comfortably add forty pounds of muscle to his torso.

Someone is going to pick up Shawn Powell this fall, when their punter sucks or is injured, and they are going to have to get used to him.

There is no reason for Buffalo to keep more than 2 tight ends.

If Naamaan Roosevelt gets cut, he will probably end up in Miami, Minnesota, or Seattle.

He better not get cut.

Clowney will get picked up by someone this year, for part of the season, anyway. Good guy, good player, but not quite good enough to be secure, or to make this team.

Vince Yong. Huh. The really want him to win the second QB job. It isn't exactly a canned hunt, but they really want him to be the guy.

Brad Smith. Not a QB. Very good in the kicking game, although Buffalo's third best returner, but not one of their six best WRs. Probably ninth. About the same as Aiken.

This is something of a carryover form the Vikings game, but Graham is not a returner. He is small and fast, but doesn't have good return instincts. Shouldn't need them, with Rogers, McKelvin, Smith, and Roosevelt around.

I was hoping for something from Merriman. The backup DE rotation makes me nervous. Will keep opponents in games too often for my liking.

If you expect Buffalo to blitz, it will be when the first unit DEs are resting.

If your team is playing Buffalo and you want to predict where the pass will be thrown, look to whomever Aaron Williams is covering. Or the TE/RB underneath, because we still cannot figure that out.

ScottDCP
08-27-2012, 10:46 PM
OK, the recent trade for another inconsistent backup quarterback has shifted things somewhat. Young likely will not make the final roster, having been released.

They say they want Smith to be the third QB. Why I have no idea. Ask Audie Cole. If they drag three real QBs into the regular season, John Potter looks like the first candidate to go and likely brought back, barring waiver claim by another team, when they dump Thigpen or Jackson in late September, after determining whether they wasted a draft pick (I hate it when they do that) on Jackson, or are satisfied he is not who he is.

Should add, Buddy spent a little time enganging in some veeeery specific language about Smith, so I may get my way in a week.

ScottDCP
08-27-2012, 10:50 PM
Oh, and I think the Prince Miller cut was designed to give other teams the ipression he wasn't good enough, so he might be available come practice squad time. Same for Onobun.

ScottDCP
08-31-2012, 10:20 PM
OK, so it looks like this:


QB Fitz, Jackson, Thigpen
RB Jackson, Spiller, Choice
FB McIntyre
WR Johnson, Nelson, Graham, Jones, Smith
TE Chandler, Smith, Dickerson
C Wood, Brown
OG Levitre, Urbik, Rinehart
OT Glenn, Pears, Hairston, Young

DT Williams, Dareus, Heard, Johnson
DE Williams, Anderson, Kelsay, Moore, Carrington
MLB Sheppard, White
OLB Barnett, Moats, Bradham, Morrison, Scott
S Byrd, Wilson, Searcy, Howell
CB Williams, Gilmore, McGee, McKelvin, Rogers, Brooks

K Lindell
P Powell
LS Sanborn
KO Potter

edave
08-31-2012, 10:52 PM
K Lindell
P Powell
LS Sanborn
KO Potter

Has Buffalo been doing the two kicker thing for a while or is that new this year?

Pruitt
08-31-2012, 11:41 PM
Has Buffalo been doing the two kicker thing for a while or is that new this year?

New this season. Lindell was okay on kickoffs, but
Potter has been exactly as advertised with the Bills, booting kicks out of the end zone with ease. Through Buffalo's first two preseason games, he had a 100-percent success rate with touchbacks. His spot may be more of a philosophical choice -- can the Bills really afford to keep an extra kicker? They might, given its benefits.

(from CBSSPORTS.com)

ScottDCP
09-01-2012, 12:02 AM
I was surprised to see White make it over McKillop. Actually, I was surprised to see Dickerson make it over McKillop. Dickerson's hands are streaky, whereas McKillop is a very good kicking game player. Barring injury, I can't foresee Dickerson getting offensive snaps, but hey, I only went unbeaten as a coach the last decade.

I got close on my early predictions, closer on my second, outsmarted myself on a couple, and am still pissed about Brad Smith over Naamaan Roosevelt. The rest I don't mind, with Dickerson making me say hunh?
.

Swami
09-01-2012, 09:30 AM
I'm now convinced that Brad Smith is just a guy who brings mediocre talent to a number of different positions. That's not all too valuable. The kicker means you don't need to keep as many special teams guys, they say, though he doesn't punt.

I still think the entire season comes down to week #1. A win and I can see getting through the tough part of the sched in good shape with a very easy finish. A loss and we're behind the 8-ball.

ScottDCP
09-01-2012, 12:30 PM
Oh, and they totally stashed Zebrie Sanders on IR because they didn't expect him to clear waivers.

ScottDCP
09-01-2012, 12:33 PM
I'm now convinced that Brad Smith is just a guy who brings mediocre talent to a number of different positions. That's not all too valuable. The kicker means you don't need to keep as many special teams guys, they say, though he doesn't punt.

This reminds me - in Moorman's rookie year he was the kickoff guy, and did a fair job. His punting was erratic, but his kickoffs almost always went three into the end zone (not out of it, but still, better than Lindell.)

Pruitt
09-01-2012, 09:05 PM
I'm now convinced that Brad Smith is just a guy who brings mediocre talent to a number of different positions. That's not all too valuable. The kicker means you don't need to keep as many special teams guys, they say, though he doesn't punt.

I still think the entire season comes down to week #1. A win and I can see getting through the tough part of the sched in good shape with a very easy finish. A loss and we're behind the 8-ball.

As for point 1, I agree 100%. Smith is a guy who does a lot of things, and none of them well.

As for point 2, have you seen the last few weeks of the Bills' schedule? Dolphins (H), Colts (A), Jags (A), Rams (H), Seahawks (Toronto), Dolphins (A), Jets (H)

Last yea's Bills would have won 4 of these games. They hit this spell of the schedule at 5-4, good things can happen.

ScottDCP
09-02-2012, 12:38 AM
Huh, the Browns picked up Tank Carder. Good for him. The Vikings got Mark Asper. Good for him, I think. And the Rams got Kellen Heard (cut largely becasue he's a giant whose legs and feet are starting to betray him.) Sorry to hear it, man.

mkocs6
09-02-2012, 12:42 AM
Huh, the Browns picked up Tank Carder. Good for him. The Vikings got Mark Asper. Good for him, I think. And the Rams got Kellen Heard (cut largely becasue he's a giant whose legs and feet are starting to betray him.) Sorry to hear it, man.

Not to divert the topic to the Browns, but the Carder signing is good news for him. He'll see time on the field. The Browns are thin at linebacker.

ScottDCP
09-02-2012, 12:53 AM
Divert away.