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cobber66
07-03-2010, 09:13 PM
First let me start off by saying I love the idea behind this site, and already it seems to have a lot of great info. I look forward to following along through the season (and offseason)!

As the season approaches we're hearing a lot of hype about the New York Jets, and the moves they've made in the offseason. My question is how does everyone think these moves will translate into results? Let's Look at the numbers from 2009:

The Jets defense allowed only 14.8 PPG, after allowing 22.2 per in each of the two prior seasons. Obviously Rex Ryan and Darrelle Revis (only 3 pass TDs allowed against him) were probably the two biggest factors in that turnaround. But I wonder, can they really be that good on defense for the second year in a row? In 2008 the Titans (14.6 PPG), Steelers (13.9) and Ravens (15.2) allowed the fewest PPG in the league. Guess what happened in 2009? The Ravens were still good but allowed 16.3 PPG, while the Steelers (20.2) and Titans (25.1) numbers showed big increases even as the league-wide average dropped slightly from 22.0 to 21.4 PPG. I heard Cris say on the BS report that the Giants defense cannot be as bad this year as last; can the Jets defense really be as good as last year?

Offensively the Jets were right on par with the league average at 21.8 PPG, and Sanchez played well for a rookie with an excellent running game and pass protection. The running game should still be good, but will Sanchez experience a Flacco-style sophomore slump? If he does, and starts turning the ball over, things could go downhill for that offense.

Additionally, the schedule this year features four short weeks, and 3 of the last 5 games are at New England, at Pittsburgh, and at Chicago, all tough places to play.

Finally, I think a lot of people are overlooking the fact that the Jets were a 9-7 football team last year before beating a worn down Bengals team and a complacent San Diego team. Peyton Manning picked apart the non-Revis part of their secondary with mediocre talent around him.

So while I may be sounding negative on the Jets, I do think they have enough talent to be a playoff team in the AFC. But Super Bowl contender? I'm not sure if I believe that hype. I'm interested to hear other's thoughts!

theshow47
07-06-2010, 07:31 AM
You make an interesting point, and those stats are in your favor, however I don't think that is an apples to apples comparison. The Titans and Ravens both lost there defensive coordinators when schwartz and ryan took head coaching positions. The Titans also lost their best player in albert haynsworth, the lynch pin in their defensive scheme.
The Steelers comparison might hold some water. Both teams run a 3-4 hybrid scheme with multiple alignments. Troy polumalu was essentially lost for the season after the first game, and he is a big catalyst for there secondary. Woodly and Harrison need to get back to what they do best, rushing the quarterback.
Now for the Jets, Ryan is one of the few coaches that scare me defensively. You give that man some toys and he will find a way to put them in position to make plays. Their secondary is obviously designed to beat Mr. Manning, the additions of Cromatie and Wilson might produce a number of different blitz packages from the secondary positions with all the speed available at corner

GBPKS
07-06-2010, 10:23 AM
I think the Jets are this year's most overrated, overhyped team in the offseason. Lot of talk about them, lot of nationally televised games, but can they back it up on the field? There's always one team that comes into the season with a lot of buzz and falls flat on its face. Last year it was the Chicago Bears, and the year before that it was the Cleveland Browns, and this year I think the Jets are a prime candidate.

Last year's team was built on running the ball and playing strong defense. Thomas Jones is gone, and now Shonn Greene has to carry the load - which he hasn't proven he is capable of. I think Tomlinson is done - and if the Jets are counting on him to play a major role, they will be sorely disappointed. I also think letting Alan Faneca go was a mistake - he was the glue that held that offensive line together and I think the Jets will miss him. That will put a lot more of the load on Mark Sanchez, and if he suffers any kind of sophomore slump, the Jets offense will be in trouble. That will put a lot of pressure on that vaunted defense, which relies on blitz pressure and strong secondary play. Revis was absolutely phenomenal last year, and they bolstered their secondary with the additions of Cromartie and Kyle Wilson, but you can run the ball on the Jets if you have to - Kris Jenkins will need to stay healthy for them to be a truly elite defense, and they will need to find a consistent pass rush.

I don't think the Jets will be a bad team by any stretch, but I struggle to see them as a Super Bowl contender. They will be in a slugfest to make the playoffs in their division - New England isn't going away yet, and Miami hung 30 points twice on the Jets last year by running it right down their throat, and now they have Brandon Marshall to augment their passing game.

Andy Freeland
07-06-2010, 10:33 AM
I don't expect the Jets defense to get better than last year, at least not statistically, but they don't have to. I would be shocked if they weren't in the top 5.
But the offense does have to get better, particularly at quarterback. Let's not forget, the Jets were 9-7 last year and only made the playoffs because the Colts pulled Peyton Manning in week 16. They were 20th in total offense and lost their 1400 yard rusher (though I think the playoffs showed that Shonn Greene is the better back).

They are definitely the trendy pick and, as I've said in other threads, that usually doesn't work out. The Jets played great at the end of last year and, on paper, have to be one of the front-runners to get to the Super Bowl. But if every single member of the media agrees on something (like the Jets being the team to beat), it's probably wrong.

theshow47
07-06-2010, 12:20 PM
Alan Faneca might have been a great guard in the early 2000s but at 33 he definatly was more of a mental presents than a physically imposing one. That was a savy front office move, he signed that giant free agent contract and he was no longer worth that dollar amount.

The idea that Mark Sanchez will have a sophemore slump is funny to me. I mean, come on, he threw 12 TDs and 20 INTs.......that was a freshman slump. He is only going to improve. This isn't a case of Matt Ryan or Joe Flacco, this is more remenicent of the Mannings. They were first year QBs that struggled, lets see how he responds. Regardless the Jets will recieve better play at the QB position whether it be Sanchez or someone else.

Wilfork
07-06-2010, 12:53 PM
Tried and true Patriots fan here, but I agree the Jets will be tough to beat. Love the defense and think it can be better based on some of the acquisitions. Offensive passing should be better too, it has to be right?

I worry about two things for the Jets. 1. Too many heros and hotheads. 2. Running game without Faneca, TJ and Leon might not be as good.

Overall I think its a crapshoot for the division between MIA, NYJ and Pats...

GBPKS
07-06-2010, 01:11 PM
The idea that Mark Sanchez will have a sophemore slump is funny to me. I mean, come on, he threw 12 TDs and 20 INTs.......that was a freshman slump. He is only going to improve. This isn't a case of Matt Ryan or Joe Flacco, this is more remenicent of the Mannings. They were first year QBs that struggled, lets see how he responds. Regardless the Jets will recieve better play at the QB position whether it be Sanchez or someone else.

Yes, and I think that Jet fans are forgetting what their team was last year - they were a .500 team that got a gift berth into the playoffs because the Colts laid down and then were fortunate to beat the Chargers because of a barrage of missed field goals.

I think that if the defense, running game, and OLine all take a step back, then it will take a massive improvement from Sanchez to counter that and I don't see it yet. The Jets have added some receiving weapons but with Holmes starting the season on suspension and Edwards' penchant for drops, I still don't think it is an elite receiving corps. I don't think the Jets will be a bad team - I think they will finish in the middle of the pack (7-9, 8-8). The schedule does them no favors and it will be interesting to see how they fare against the elite QBs from the NFC North this year in inter-conference play, and to see if they can figure out how to solve Miami's running game.

Pattrick
07-14-2010, 06:06 AM
Do you think Mark Sanchez is going to be let off the leash a little bit this year or is Schottenheimer going to keep him tied down?

Tinindian
07-14-2010, 06:39 AM
Whenever I see a team "loading up" on big name players I always think about Don Shula's last year with the Dolphins. They had I can't remember how many 1st round picks on that team and other big names. They were the trendy pick but they got bounced in the 1st round, I think. More importantly they never really looked good all year. You can look at Washington's recent history for more examples that this way doesn't always produce great results.

Although I really do Like Revis, who wouldn't, I am not a big fan of Cromartie's. I wonder how much help he is really going to be for them and how much distraction he is going to have with his 42 kids. We'll see, I guess. After all that though, you would still have to make them the favorite in the East at this point.

Polishguy00
07-14-2010, 07:14 AM
I don't buy into hype. I buy into what seems to be smart football decisions. While the Jets have made a few really good ones, it is possible that they have let in too many personalities and things like Jones and Faneca will come up and bite them in the rear. I never bought into the Bears last year. I am not a die-hard homer. I am a die-hard who is brutally honest about his team. It was the clear that the Bears had questions on the line and the line killed them. Despite the spending spree, the same holds true this year. For the Jets, though, there are not a lot of holes there. They should be just as good on defense. The comment about a sophomore slump for Sanchez is quite scary. If he slumps, he might set a modern INT record. He has to progress, he cannot have a slump.

A team with even less question marks is the Ravens. That team is the one I think truly looks scary on paper.

TheLinc
07-14-2010, 07:19 AM
Tried and true Patriots fan here, but I agree the Jets will be tough to beat. Love the defense and think it can be better based on some of the acquisitions. Offensive passing should be better too, it has to be right?

I worry about two things for the Jets. 1. Too many heros and hotheads. 2. Running game without Faneca, TJ and Leon might not be as good.

Overall I think its a crapshoot for the division between MIA, NYJ and Pats...

Agreed - I think the Jets are a powderkeg just waiting for the fuse to be lit before internal combustion.

I feel the same way about the NFC East though regarding competitive balance. Toss-up with Dallas being slight favorite.

theshow47
07-14-2010, 10:29 AM
I don't buy into hype. I buy into what seems to be smart football decisions. While the Jets have made a few really good ones, it is possible that they have let in too many personalities and things like Jones and Faneca will come up and bite them in the rear. I never bought into the Bears last year. I am not a die-hard homer. I am a die-hard who is brutally honest about his team. It was the clear that the Bears had questions on the line and the line killed them. Despite the spending spree, the same holds true this year. For the Jets, though, there are not a lot of holes there. They should be just as good on defense. The comment about a sophomore slump for Sanchez is quite scary. If he slumps, he might set a modern INT record. He has to progress, he cannot have a slump.

A team with even less question marks is the Ravens. That team is the one I think truly looks scary on paper.


As far as letting Jones go I think LT fills the need of veteran leader in the backfield. And Allen Faneca, I have already adressed his declining value on a previous post. I cant believe NFL fans are really getting worked up over the loss of a 34 year old guard....I mean really....really? I think I've seen this movie before: 29 year old guard becomes free agent, gets big contract, plays well for 3 years before age catches up to him. (o thats right Steve Hutchunson and Eric Steinbach)

The Ravens look good on offense. I love that O-line's guards and tackles, Ray Rice is a multi-dimensional threat, and the addition of Bolden gives Flacco a man that can get open. They drafted 2 athletic tight ends that could prove to be the difference, Ed Dickson and Dennis Petta can catch the ball down the field. But the secondary really scares me. They had a great draft for their front seven by getting Mount Cody and Sergio Kiddle but they didnt address their biggest need corner and safety. Ed Reed is still thinking about retirement (o and his backup is the legendary Tom Zibicowski), and Fabian Washington isnt a starter. Im worried that the defense, which has carried them for a decade will finally see signs of decay.