View Full Version : Early Round Draft Recap-FPL Fantasy League

09-01-2010, 03:59 AM
Analysis of the First Six Rounds of the FPL.com Fantasy League Draft

Round One:
1. TJ-Chris Johnson
2. Brad-Adrian Peterson
3. Marty-Ray Rice
4. Fred-Maurice Jones-Drew
5. Andrew-Frank Gore
6. Nitai-Michael Turner
7. Wade-Aaron Rodgers
8. Cris-Peyton Manning
9. Chris-Drew Brees
10. Danny-Ryan Mathews
11. Andy-Andre Johnson
12. Marcus-Stephen Jackson
13. Gerry-Shonn Greene
14. Matt-Miles Austin
15. James-Rashard Mendenhall
16. Chris-Jamaal Charles

My takes:
1. The first six picks were safe, smart and disciplined. No reaches, nothing out of the ordinary. Just playing the cards they were dealt.
2. While 7-9 is normally a bit early for QBs, in a draft this deep in teams it is essential to grab an elite quarterback and I think Manning, Brees and Rodgers certainly fall into that category.
3. Biggest reach had to be Ryan Mathews at #10, with proven guys like Stephen Jackson, Ryan Grant and Cedric Benson still sitting on the board. Hard to believe that Ryan Mathews will even match the #'s they have consistently put up, much less surpass them. The other big reach in my opinion was Miles Austin at #14, with many other elite WR's still remaining. A lot of faith in what could have been a one-year flash. Big gamble.
4. My own pick: Stephen Jackson at #12. While I was hoping Andre Johnson would fall to me [Andy snatched him right before], I was happy to take the 6th best player on my own Big Board at the twelfth spot. SJ is not a sexy pick, but fantasy drafts aren't about falling for the girl in the short skirt--go with the proven commodity.

Round Two:
17. Chris: DeAngelo Williams
18. James: Ryan Grant
19. Matt: Cedric Benson
20. Gerry: Roddy White
21. Marcus: Larry Fitzgerald
22. Andy: Pierre Thomas
23. Danny: Randy Moss
24. Chris: Greg Jennings
25. Cris: CJ Spiller [What?!?]
26. Wade: Calvin Johnson
27. Nitai: Reggie Wayne
28. Andrew: Tom Brady
29. Fred: Matt Schaub
30. Marty: Tony Romo
31. Brad: Philip Rivers
32. TJ: Brandon Marshall

My Takes:
1. Really solid draft round, with lots of sensible selections aside from the CJ Spiller selection by the most notable member of our draft. Perhaps attributed to his situation of drafting, nonetheless it remained as the biggest blemish on a solid round.
2. QB's went fast, with none of the elite arms lasting into the mid-30's. Once again, not a surprise nor a mistake in a 16-team league. Unfortunately, I was not one of the fortunate who got one of them.
3. Best value: Brandon Marshall at 32, hands down.
4. Reach I liked: Roddy White over Fitz, Moss and Calvin Johnson (among others). A bit of a reach, but I think it was a safe gut-snatch to make. Well done.
5. My own pick: Larry Fitzgerald. Upon hearing that Leinart would not be starting this season at QB for the Cardinals, I immediately heightened my value of Fitz. DA will throw up jump-balls all year for Fitz, whereas Leinart is normally hesitant to throw the ball past the line of scrimmage much less downfield. I was very happy to get Fitz where I did, though it was hard watching all the elite QBs disappear soon after.

Round Three:
33. TJ-Jahvid Best
34. Brad-Marques Colston
35. Marty-Arian Foster
36. Fred-Knowshon Moreno
37. Andrew-DeSean Jackson
38. Nitai-LeSean McCoy
39. Wade- Anquan Boldin
40. Cris-Joseph Addai
41. Chris-Johnathan Stewart
42. Danny-Beanie Wells
43. Andy-Matt Forte
44. Marcus-Steve Smith [Carolina version]
45. Gerry-Ronnie Brown
46. Matt-Joe Flacco
47. James-Steve Smith
48. Chris-Wes Welker

My Takes:
1. Picks I loved: Matt Forte [Andy screwed me again], Marques Colston, LeSean McCoy. All three should justify their selections and help carry their fantasy team each week.
2. Picks I didn't love so much: Not to keep ripping on Cris, but taking Adai over Forte, Wells, Brown and even Stewart seemed a bit foolhardy. I felt my own selection of Steve Smith was a bit awkward, too [I was reeling from the missed chance at Forte].

More to come later...

09-01-2010, 09:12 AM
Forte's not a bad pick-up there, but I wouldn't expect much out of him. The days of a Marshall Faulk type RB in Martz's offense began and ended with Marshall Faulk. Martz never utilized Kevin Jones, under-utilized Frank Gore, and thus isn't likely to utilize Forte. I think LeSean McCoy is likely to have as good of a fantasy season as Forte.

Andy Freeland
09-01-2010, 09:34 AM
1. Picks I loved: Matt Forte [Andy screwed me again]

Good to hear. This was a reoccurring theme for most of us. I had at least 4 guys get drafted by someone else while they were on my screen as my next pick: Michael Bush, Bernard Berrian, Carson Palmer, Jermaine Gresham come to mind. There were a couple of others that I can't think of right now. I think the 16 team league threw off everyone's timing, the 'this guy will be there next round' feeling was usually wrong.

Now that the draft is over I can share my hastily thrown together 16-team philosophy.
1. Upside instead of consistency (aside from Andre Johnson). Kolb could be a top 7 QB, but probably won't (at least not early). Shipley could end up being the Houshmandzadeh/Welker 80-90 catch guy, but probably won't. Louis Murphy could get 8-10 TDs, but probably won't, same with McCluster.
2. Handcuffing. I was more concerned about injuries than normal. I took Chester Taylor to cover Forte and Chris Ivory for Pierre Thomas.
3. Draft QB1 late and QB2 early. I wanted a top backup QB for safety and trade value. Didn't work out. After Palmer went there wasn't anyone worth taking so I went with Campbell late. I looked at the week 8 schedule (Kolb's bye) and Campbell at home vs the Seahawks was the best of what was left.

09-01-2010, 01:12 PM
Before I continue with the recap [I will, no worries], I'll go over my strategy quickly as well:
1. Was looking to get my receivers early, then grab a QB, then a boatload of RBs with the hope that a few of them break through. This strategy is prime for a 10-team, sufficient for a 12-team, and not so good for a 16 team. I now know.
2. I pretty much abandoned it and went with the best value on the board for the first four rounds once I realized that a storm of mediocrity was coming. Most of the guys on my team aren't guys I normally would target, but the value was just way too good to pass up. That's how I ended up with Jackson, Fitzgerald, Steve Smith, Antonio Gates with my top four. [And yes, this means I'm not attached to any of my guys. They are all on the trading block.]
3. Then, I started reaching for guys that I just had good feelings about--Berrian, Portis, Holmes and Cassel. Like you mentioned, it just seemed like guys weren't sticking around so I needed to get my guys.
4. After giving up my dreams of landing a top-6 QB, I decided pretty early on that I needed two of these three: Cassel, Orton and Derek Anderson. After landing Cassel [is 'land' the appropriate verbage?] I figured I would take an upside shot with Anderson. I played against him in high school and he has a soft spot in my heart--and I think there is like a ten percent shot that he goes off and has a Pro Bowl season this year.
5. My 'slew of RB's' strategy was not nearly as effective as I would have hoped, as in the later rounds there were no 'upside' backs. Instead, I had to play the injury-lotto, drafting Sproles-Westbrook-Taylor-Jennings. With Portis and Jackson having the same bye week [I don't put much thought into byes, but this one hurts particularly] I am going to need at least one of those to come through. If not, a trade probably is looming at some point for me.
6. I got Gronkowski late, and I was extremely excited to do so. Had I been able to land Janikowski also, I would have renamed my team to the "Big Kowski," traded Antonio Gates and started my rookie phenom all season. Even his bye week.
7. Self-Position grades, taking into account value of when the players were picked:
-QBs: C+
-RBs: C-
-WRs: A-
-TEs: A-
-D/ST: B
-K: B

The last two are like PE and Music Ed grades, so looking at the first four: C+, C-, A-, A-
I give myself a B- for the draft.

Oh well.

09-01-2010, 06:28 PM
My team ended up being.....ok. I was pick #15 of 16 so I was forced into playing damage control from the very beginning. I decided to draft a QB after everyone else and grab the best player available until then.

QB: Vince Young, Ben Roethlisberger
RB: Rashard Mendenhall, Ryan Grant, Donald Brown, Kareem Huggins, Tashard Choice, Jonathan Dwyer (RM handcuff)
WR: Steve Smith NYG, Michael Crabtree, Kenny Britt, Demaryius Thomas, Arrelious Benn
TE: Owen Daniels
K: Dan Carpenter
DEF: Texans

I took Ben before VY because when he gets back in week 6 he will be a great fantasy play as he typically is. Until then Vince is a solid fill-in and will possibly grab me some lucky rushing yards and a solo TD or two if I'm lucky. I got Mendenhall and Grant back to back at picks 15 and 18, which I am satisfied with considering how ugly things got. Huggins could play a lot of Cadillac is injured, and he has played well in exhibition action. Moore and Goodman were the other options to handcuff Mendenhall with but I took Dwyer for his playmaking abilities and what I've seen in preseason. Just a hunch. WR is thin but everyone is thin somewhere in a league this big. Thomas and Benn could either one have some value, but I expect little from them.

Overall I'd give my team a D but considering that everybody's team is ugly and jacked up, I'd say I got a B- for what was available to me.

This league is freaking gigantic.

09-01-2010, 09:18 PM
Interesting analysis.
My strategy was simple- RB's first, WR's next, Start shopping for QB's after that, then fill in the rest.

My logic was, since I wasn't going to get a top tier QB picking at 16 in the first round, I might as well look for solid RB's. With a couple guys taking WR's and QB's early, that left me the opportunity to grab Jamaal Charles and DeAngelo Williams.

It felt like forever as I waited for the cycle of picks to come back to me. By that point nearly all the WR's I wanted were gone, so I opted to just take the best player available, including a QB. I went with Wes Welker and Eli Manning here.

I felt grabbing Driver in the 5th was as good a place as any, and I debated taking another QB here but looking over the list of who was left, there wasn't much difference. I also noticed the tight ends started to go, and my top three went quick so I grabbed the best available in Zach Miller.

After that my only strategy was to try and grab the best players still left. I though I got good value for Carson Palmer in the 7th, but otherwise it was just about trying to fill the roster with guys I hoped could be productive.

09-02-2010, 06:01 PM
Aye, souza, you and I got hosed having the last picks. The WR depth was pitiful by our turn.

09-03-2010, 12:31 PM
Aye, souza, you and I got hosed having the last picks. The WR depth was pitiful by our turn.

I had the 7th pick, ended up with Megatron and Boldin in the 2nd and 3rd rounds, making me hosed at running back

09-03-2010, 07:44 PM
For some reason I thought your team was the one after me at 16.

09-04-2010, 12:01 AM
Looking back, I think the best strategy is to get one elite RB, one elite WR and a semi-elite QB [Michael Turner-Roddy White-Tony Romo, for example] and then take the best available RB/WR for the next 4 or 5 rounds. I ended up going RB-WR-WR-TE-RB-WR-WR, and there definitely needed to be a QB earlier and at least one more RB. Oh well, lesson learned.

09-11-2010, 02:35 AM
I think the 16 team league threw off everyone's timing, the 'this guy will be there next round' feeling was usually wrong.

That is exactly what happened in FPLII. I felt like I reached on a few picks, because I didn't want to miss 'em.

09-12-2010, 01:07 AM
That happened to me too. I think our league is too big. Next time I'd prefer to do 14 maximum, 12 preferrably