View Full Version : Week Three

09-27-2010, 08:47 AM
This week was a very interesting week. While I'm sure that most people will talk about the Pats Defense, I found some very interesting things on the Offensive side. I didn't like the second half last week for where Brady was going with the ball, so I decided to track this game offensively, and look at where the ball went.

Here's how it ended up:

Welker: 8 targets, 4 catches. He had two other catches negated by OPIs, one each on Gronkowski and Hernandez (factoring those in, it would be 10/6)
Hernandez: 7 targets, 6 catches.
Moss: 3 targets, 2 catches, both for TDs. (Please, Mr. Kraft, give him an extension. A day like yesterday is a perfect Moss day)
Edlemann: 3 targets, 3 catches
Tate: 2 targets, 2 cacthes (1 fumbled to the Bills)
Gronkowski: 2 targets, 2 catches, 1 for a TD
Green-Ellis: 1 target, 1 catch
Slater: 1 target, 0 catches

This offense is crazy to pass defend. Every person out there can make huge plays and Hernandez is just insanely good. He makes moves that just make defenders totally miss. When the ball gets spread out it makes this offense explosive.

It's also, however, interesting to look at the Pats drives more in depth, because you can actually see this openly.

Drive 1: 8 plays, 4 runs, 4 passes. TD to Moss. Hernandez with the star, with a 12 yard end around, and 2 long pass catches.

Drive 2: This drive looked like one from the Jets game. Brady thought there was one man on the team: First Down: Taylor for 7, negated by Holding, First and 20: Edellman screen for -5, Second and 25: Welker for 7, 3rd and 18, Welker, incomplete (a high throw, Brady's only bad throw of the day). In effect, we ran 3 Welker plays for 2 net yards. We were predictable, and got shut down.

Drive 3: 1st down: Welker drop. (Note, this is the 4th Welker play in a row), and OPI on Gronk. 1st and 15: 4 yard run, I think from Taylor, but missed the who, 2nd and 11: Incomplete to Moss. McKelvin made a nice play on the ball and broke it up, 3rd and 11: Tate catches it, fumbles, Bills recover. But, he would have had the first down, and Moss nearly got the ball. Randy fought hard for it.

Drive 4: 5 runs, 1 pass (to Gronk). TD run by Jets castoff Woodhead.

Drive 5: Right before the half, 2 passes (Tate for 29, Hernandez for 13) and we kick our first FG of the season.


Drive 6: 5 passes, 4 complete. The big plays were Welker for 27 against the dime, and Moss for 35 and a TD.

Drive 7: 3 and out. A 1 yard Edelman run, and 2 passes to Hernandez, one defended. His only failed catch of the day. Bills D played this nicely, they won this possession with effort. About this time, some coach figured out you can run on the Bills.

Drive 8: 13 plays, 3 catches, 10 runs. Taylor goes down with a toe injury on the second play, Brady runs for the first down on 3rd and 6, and we give the ball to Green-Ellis, the drive ends on Gronkowski's TD.

Drive 9: 11 runs, 3 passes, only 1 complete. Gronk caught one for 16, then after Brady missed Slater (on 2nd and 9) and Welker (on 3rd and 9), we were bailed out by a Bills illegal contact - and we then ran 9 times in a row, ending with Green Ellis going for a 7 yard TD.

And then, we decided to play the Jets! In an attemt to let the Bills back in the game, we go...

Drive 10: 1st down: Sack. 2nd and 17: Welker for 5, negated by Hernandez OPI.. 2nd and long: Edleman for 5. (Julian finished with 3 targets, 3 catches, 6 yards. Not a good day for 11). 3rd down: Pass batted down at the line.

But - on the Bills first play Merriweather got the pick, and Green Ellis ran 4 more times, and then we went into kneeldowns.

Overall, both teams played well, the game was expertly called - there were I think 4 on us, 5 of them, and every one of them a solid, good call. The Pats running game came to life - with Kevin out, I think the TEs and the running backs get more touches and we get a more varied offense.

Defensively, we'll look bad at times this year. This is a very young Defense, the entire normal linebacker and secondary starters are 3rd year or less, so there will be a growing period. And, we need a pass rusher. But, the Pats now have a core of good, young players on both sides of the ball to keep them going for a while. I expect a lot of shoot out games that'll be won by the Pats if we spread the ball around, and lost if we don't.

We also need to resign Moss. He still burns defenses and the Pats don't need him to carry the offense any more - let him end his career as a home run hitter. 2 catches for 2 TDs is a fine day.

09-30-2010, 09:06 PM
Here is what I like right now:
1. Having TE's who are versatile and dangerous weapons in the passing games. More toys for Brady (Simmons, every column)
2. Brady not over-targeting Moss--only looking for him when he's open plus 1-2 downfield heaves a game [Brady has been a bit off on these, Moss has done his part minus the drop against the Jets]
3. BJGE heading the RB-by-committee. I would rather have a healthy Taylor, but he's much better than Faulk at running the ball.

Here's what I don't like:
1. the ineptitude of the defense
2. the offensive lulls [unacceptable with the defense the Pats have]
3. the inability to get Tate more involved--he's dangerous and could be a legit #2.
4. over-reliance upon Welker, becomes predictable.
5. Gostkowski. not a fan right now.

That's it. Nice job, Amy.

10-01-2010, 02:16 PM
My concern is your #4 Chilly. What has me worried is that everytime we had a bad down and distance in the game, Brady went to Welker, or to Mini-Welker. (Edelmann). Now, that was fine in 2007, but, now, the Bills knew he would, and they had the D ready to stop those plays.

I'm not worried at all about the D. Given how young it is, and how complex BBs scheme is, I expect growing pains, and yes, mistakes that will cost a game or two. But, I think we have a 10 year defensive core forming. However, we do need a pass rusher. BB needs to suck it up, call Adaluis Thomas, apologize, bring AD back and give him Raven type schemes to unleash him. Or get Aaron Schobel to come out of retirement.

As far as Tate, I think in the Bills game, the fumble put him in BBs doghouse. It's a weakness for Belichick, he gets mad at a player and pulls him for too long. Tate needs to be out there more, he's a legit deep threat on the other side, which opens up the middle for Hernandez/Gronk/Crumpler/Julian/Welker (Ie whooever happens to be in.) As much as I love Kevin Faulk, that injury may well have been a godsend. It'll give Woodhead, more importantly, Green-Ellis more playing time.