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GBPKS
11-12-2010, 03:11 PM
In the preseason, I picked the Browns as my playoff sleeper team and they got off to a brutal start, but they have blown out the Saints and the Patriots in back to back games.

They have to be kicking themselves for the games they lost early in the season.

I think they have dug too deep a hole to make a playoff run, but Browns fans have to be happy with how their team is performing.

iwatt
11-12-2010, 03:54 PM
In the preseason, I picked the Browns as my playoff sleeper team and they got off to a brutal start, but they have blown out the Saints and the Patriots in back to back games.

They have to be kicking themselves for the games they lost early in the season.

I think they have dug too deep a hole to make a playoff run, but Browns fans have to be happy with how their team is performing.

- The Wild Cards in the AFC will have to have 11 wins this season. The Browns won't be able to do it. Their losses to Tampa and Kansas don't look that bad now that we know both teams are for real.

mkocs6
11-12-2010, 09:01 PM
Hard for me to see the Browns making the playoffs this year, but I'm enjoying the way the team is playing.


- The Wild Cards in the AFC will have to have 11 wins this season. The Browns won't be able to do it. Their losses to Tampa and Kansas don't look that bad now that we know both teams are for real.

This is probably right, but I could see it dipping to 10-6. I don't believe in this Ravens team yet, and I could see them dropping three more games this season. Has anyone else noticed that they have a five-game stretch upcoming where they hit TB, PIT, @ HOU, NO, @ CLE? I could believe 2-3 during that stretch. Similarly, I find it difficult to believe there will be two 11-win teams in the AFC South.

Even still, the Browns would have to finish 7-1 in order to get to 10-6, and even then they would need to figure out a way to win the division tiebreaker with Baltimore. Not easy. Let's just win on Sunday and we can worry about the playoff chase a little later if we're still in it.

Andy Freeland
11-12-2010, 10:13 PM
Hard for me to see the Browns making the playoffs this year, but I'm enjoying the way the team is playing.



This is probably right, but I could see it dipping to 10-6. I don't believe in this Ravens team yet, and I could see them dropping three more games this season. Has anyone else noticed that they have a five-game stretch upcoming where they hit TB, PIT, @ HOU, NO, @ CLE? I could believe 2-3 during that stretch. Similarly, I find it difficult to believe there will be two 11-win teams in the AFC South.

Even still, the Browns would have to finish 7-1 in order to get to 10-6, and even then they would need to figure out a way to win the division tiebreaker with Baltimore. Not easy. Let's just win on Sunday and we can worry about the playoff chase a little later if we're still in it.

Pretty good assessment. They've played 2 good games, but to have any shot at the playoffs they would have to win at least 7 of the last 8. Counting the last 2 games that would mean a 9-1 run and I just don't see it.

iwatt
11-12-2010, 10:21 PM
Similarly, I find it difficult to believe there will be two 11-win teams in the AFC South.


No, the South is only sending 1 team to the playoffs. The WCs are coming out of the East and North.

Ravens would have to have an unlikely collapse for the Browns to come in and take the WC. The Steelers have too easy a schedule ahead of them (except for the Pats game) too not take the division. The Pitt-Cleveland game will be very good.

iwatt
11-12-2010, 10:21 PM
Similarly, I find it difficult to believe there will be two 11-win teams in the AFC South.


No, the South is only sending 1 team to the playoffs. The WCs are coming out of the East and North.

Ravens would have to have an unlikely collapse for the Browns to come in and take the WC. The Steelers have too easy a schedule ahead of them (except for the Pats game) too not take the division. The Pitt-Cleveland game will be very good.

Amy
11-13-2010, 11:38 AM
No, the South is only sending 1 team to the playoffs. The WCs are coming out of the East and North.

Ravens would have to have an unlikely collapse for the Browns to come in and take the WC. The Steelers have too easy a schedule ahead of them (except for the Pats game) too not take the division. The Pitt-Cleveland game will be very good.

Steelers have Bengals #2 still - and the Bengals have to have confidence now, given that Pitt defensive collapse in the 4th quarter, and they have Ravens #2 in Baltimore, and yes, one more with a feisty Browns team - who will hopefully be using McCoy still. Don't annoint a 6 seed as division champs quite yet. Can they take the divsion, yes, they can. Is it guaranteed? No, not by any means - they have almost no oline left and QB play is not good. If you look at the official stats for AFC QBs here's how the Ravens and Steelers compare - NFL.com only goes down 14 places:

Completion Percentage* Flacco: 8th, Steelers: Not listed
Yards: Flacco: 4th, Steelers: Not listed
TD: Flacco: 11th, Steelers: Not listed
Int: Flacco: 4th, Steelers: Not listed
Sacks: Flacco: 5th, Steelers: Not listed
1st Down Percentage*: Flacco: 4th, Steelers: Not listed
Rating*: Flacco: 7th, Steelers: Not listed

Now, before the 'Ben has only played 4 games' comes in - that's not important. It does not effect the * stats at all - in fact, with everything except total yards, it is an *advantage* He's had less chances to make bad plays. And, with a smaller sample size, it would be *easier* for him to have a good rating, competion percentage, and first down percentage. 37 percent of Flacco's *attempts* result in first downs. That's really impressive. If I'm the Ravens I worry about the int rating, but, really, the Raven's passing offense is better than the Steelers by far. I think the Raven's will win the division, though the fact the Steelers get gift calls and the Raven's get victimized by non calls is a real factor that may give it to Pitt. In any event, I see the Steelers going 0-1, or maybe 1-1 in the playoffs. They won't be in Dallas in Feb.

mkocs6
11-13-2010, 01:45 PM
I'm not sure I agree with Amy's theory of statistics (that Roethlisberger has had fewer opportunities to make bad plays), especially with respect to completion percentage. This isn't quite baseball (although I must admit, I'm not a big fan of the SABR-metric revolution; it has given the game some valuable ideas, but I think it's hardly a sufficient way to analyze baseball players and talent, but that's another conversation for another day) but I still believe that numbers in football, especially for the quarterback, are more likely to reach a statistical equilibrium throughout the course of the season. For instance, your best wide receiver plays a bad game, drops a few passes, driving your completion percentage for that game below 60%; that will get erased over the course of a season, but with only four games played, it may be more difficult. Plus, as Roethlisberger practices more, a lot of these statistical problems will get cleared up. I think Ben is a disgusting human being, but he's a pretty damn good quarterback.

Anyway, put more simply, I disagree with iwatt that they will win 13. Especially if the Steelers lose tomorrow (and I will be picking New England to respond after a bad loss), they have to close the season 7-0. They're not going to do that, even though the schedule is much easier. It's going to be hard to win in Baltimore and Cleveland in Weeks 13 and 17. I don't think they'll have problems with Cincinnati.

Pruitt
11-13-2010, 02:29 PM
At the start of the season, I figured that 4-12 was realistic. Part of the reason for the pessimism was the dismal thought of seeing Jake Delhomme at QB every week.

After the first three close losses, I looked at the schedule and posted that 0-9 was staring the Browns in the face.

I am thrilled that they have made themselves relevant, and now, 7-9 looks like the target. May not sound like much, but it's a hell of an improvement.

Made even sweeter by the fact that the Bengals are about to clean house!

iwatt
11-13-2010, 02:41 PM
People are making too much of the bengals coming back, with the help of two bad calls on Hampton and Taylor. Ive gone into length on Garbage time Palmer. When he actually had a chance, he choked again.

I think the Pata take the game, but the Steelers can take the rest of the schedule and go 7-0.