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Turk Schonert
11-23-2010, 12:41 PM
Top 10 Week #12

1. New England - Win over Indy keeps them here
2. Atlanta - Have the game of the week vs Green Bay in Atlanta, outcome could determine home field advantage in the playoffs
3. Philly - Vick gives Andy Reid a dangerous running game, which gives opposing defenses fits
4. Green Bay - #1 scoring defense in league, Aaron Rodgers is on fire!
5. Baltimore - Struggled at home putting away Carolina who played a QB fresh off the couch
6. NY Jets - Sanchez is making plays to win close games, he must be mentioned in the conversation of most promising young QB's
7. Pittsburgh - Dominating bounce back win over Oakland, Ben is starting to hit his stride
8. New Orleans - Champs are starting to get their swagger back, and, get Reggie Bush back
9. Chicago - Defense and special teams look dominant, dangerous team if offense doesn't turn the ball over
10. San Diego - I know that they are only 5-5, but, they would be 8-2 if it weren't for their special teams. They get V. Jackson back, A. Gates is almost ready, and, P. Rivers is playing MVP ball.


**Indy has too many injuries and is 2-4 on the road
**Tampa Bay has to beat a good team to get into the top 10, and they haven't yet, this week will be a good indicator as they play @ Baltimore
** NY Giants are looking like they are in for another 2nd half collapse, they better find a run game with all of the injuries to the WR's and their 0-line


Bottom 5

5. Minnesota - HC change came 3 weeks too late
4. Detroit - Another sad season winding down
3. Cincinnati - What a total collapse against the Bills (35-0 in the 2nd half)
2. Arizona - Humpty Dumpty had a great fall
1. Carolina - Give them credit, they hung in the game for 3/4's @ Baltimore

** I choose my teams based on gut feeling and what I see. I'll let you all use the SOS and other criteria to choose your top & bottom teams. I enjoy seeing the different viewpoints.

Darren83
11-23-2010, 02:18 PM
Bills out of the Bottom 5!

That is a pleasure to see Turk.

This probably deserves its own thread, but based on what you've seen from Gailey and Fitzpatrick, do you think Fitz will be the starter going forward?

Turk Schonert
11-23-2010, 02:26 PM
Bills out of the Bottom 5!

That is a pleasure to see Turk.

This probably deserves its own thread, but based on what you've seen from Gailey and Fitzpatrick, do you think Fitz will be the starter going forward?

That is a great question Darren? Fitz and Gailey look to have developed a bond together. Over the next 6 games will determine how strong that trust and that bond will become. Andrew Luck is a franchise QB, unless you already have one, the logic is to take him if he is there. If Luck is not there, I can see Buffalo going elsewhere in the draft, picking up a QB later, and starting next season with Fitz at the helm.

iwatt
11-23-2010, 02:44 PM
Well, I'll stick to my SoS system. I too enjoy the difference of viewpoints.
Top 10

1. Atlanta They have the best record in the NFL, and the best shot at securing Home Field Advantage. Matty Ice is a cold killer in 4th qtr ofclose games (95.2 rating)
2. Pittsburgh The tough part of their schedule is done. Only the game @Ravens poses a challenge, as they adjust to new O-Line
3. Eagles The Defense showed up big time, and the offense did it's thing against a very tough unit. Vick survived the Giants. Many others haven't.
4. New England Looking at 12-13 wins, but that defense is still suspect, and Brady hasn't looked his best in 4th Quarter of close games (36.1 rating).
5. Jets Winning close games against team you should destroy isn't a good recipe. Everybody needs luck, recquiring it is something else.
6. Ravens: Previously vaunted Defense is looking vulnerable now. Specially in 2nd half.
7. Packers 3rd seed in the NFC, and winning convincingly on the road.
8. Saints Offense back on track, they have to make up for bad start.
9. Chicago Top notch defense gives a punchers chance in cold weather.
10. Buccaneers Josh Freeman wins football games (nasal voice). In 4th qtr of close games (109.3 rating).

* Indy is looking up at Jacksonville. Not a good sign at this time of the year.
** NYG: haven't beat anybody good so far except for the Bears, after concussing the starting QB.
***: Chiefs need to win on the road convincingly.

Bottom 5

28 Vikings Only a field goal, at home. Getting 35 scored against you, at home.
29 Bills Moving up, I don't expect them to be here much longer.
30 Lions Learn to win.
31 Bengals Time for a firesale and rebuilding process.
32 Panthers Good Defense cannot overcome dismal Offense.

iwatt
11-23-2010, 02:47 PM
That is a great question Darren? Fitz and Gailey look to have developed a bond together. Over the next 6 games will determine how strong that trust and that bond will become. Andrew Luck is a franchise QB, unless you already have one, the logic is to take him if he is there. If Luck is not there, I can see Buffalo going elsewhere in the draft, picking up a QB later, and starting next season with Fitz at the helm.

Fitz has looked great, and this team has played themselves out of the Andrew Luck sweepstakes. There might be somebody else out there, but Fitz is smart, unassuming, and accurate. He fits the blue collar feel of Buffalo. I'd draft a stud LT. Watch them take Mark Ingram though...

Amy
11-23-2010, 06:08 PM
Well, before I do my rankings, let's look at current playoff seedings, along with records against other current playoff teams and how many games left against current playoff teams.

AFC: Jets (1-2, 3) NFC: Falcons (2-2, 3)
Ravens (2-2, 2) Eagles (2-1, 1)
Jags (0-2, 0) Bears (1-1, 4)
KC (1-0, 1) Seahawks (1-1, 2)
Patriots (2-1, 3) Saints (2-1, 2)
Steelers (1-3, 2) Packers (2-1, 3)

3 teams - The Jags, Jets, and Steelers have losing records vs current playoff teams. In addition, the Pats and Eagles wins knocked the Colts and Giants out of the top six, which does effect a few other teams playoff team win-loss records. So, how do I rank them?

12: Seattle. Easy call here. NFC west is a bad division.
11: Jags. Jags are a hard team to read. Are they good or lucky?
10: Steelers 1-3 against playoff teams. Pitt beats the average or less teams and lose to the good ones.
9: KC AFC West is also weak, and they have Todd Haley. Still, RAC makes up for that a little.
8: Bears Chicago, like the Jags, is really hard to read as a team.
7: Eagles I like Philly, but...if Vick gets hurt, are they done? And Vick gets hurt often.
6: Packers Nothing against the Pack, but I think the other teams are just a little better.
5: Saint They're starting to come alive.
4: Jets The Rex's are walking the walk, but they have lost to the...
3: Ravens ..who have lost both the top 2.
2: Falcons Best of the NFC, almost impossible to beat at home and they are the 1 seed.
1: Pats Call it homerism, but they are one of 2 8-2 teams.

AFC Championship: Ravens v Pats at Foxboro (which I've said since September)
NFC Championship: Falcons v Packers at Atlanta

iwatt
11-23-2010, 06:12 PM
By the way, the official DVOA raqnkings are up, and they show the following:


1 PHI
2 PIT
3 NE
4 GB
5 TEN
6 NYG
7 BAL
8 SD
9 ATL
10 NYJ



28 STL
29 BUF
30 SEA
31 ARI
32 CAR

iwatt
11-23-2010, 06:18 PM
AFC Championship: Ravens v Pats at Foxboro (which I've said since September)
NFC Championship: Falcons v Packers at Atlanta

Here are my playoff scenarios:

AFC Wildcard
Jets (5) @ Jaguars (4)
Ravens (6) @ Chiefs (3)

NFC Wildcard
Saints (5) @ Seahawks (4)
Bears (6) @ Packers (3)

AFC Divisional
Ravens @ Steelers
Jets @ Patriots

NFC Divisional
Saints @ Falcons
Packers @ Eagles

Championships
Eagles @ Falcons
Steelers @ Pats

Superbowl
Falcons vs Pats

DannyMilk
11-23-2010, 06:28 PM
I still don't feel the Lions are one of the worst 5 teams in the league, I can't do it, I'd feel too bad haha...and nice to see the Bears in the top 10...I'm still too frightened (or smart?) to buy in

Amy
11-24-2010, 03:46 PM
Here are my playoff scenarios:

AFC Wildcard
Jets (5) @ Jaguars (4)
Ravens (6) @ Chiefs (3)

This seeding (Jets 5, Ravens 6), is rather improbable. Here's why:

1. Ravens have the head to head tiebreaker over the Jets.
2. You assume Pats and Steelers having byes in round 1.
3. For the Pats to have the bye, they have to beat the Jets 12/6 (which I think they do)
4. For the Steelers to have the bye, they have to beat the Jets and the Ravens. Given the Steelers record vs playoff teams this year, this is unlikely.
5. Even if they do, however, that would tie the Jets and Ravens, giving the Ravens the 5 seed, not the Jets.
6. So, for the Ravens to take the six seed, they'd have to lose to Pitt and one other team, *and* the Jets would have to lose to Pats and Steelers, *and* Pitt has to go 6-0 over the last six.

Note that this is the simplest way for that seeding to happen. It assumes wins for all these teams, except against each other. And, in this years NFL, that is not very likely.

iwatt
11-24-2010, 04:11 PM
1. Ravens have the head to head tiebreaker over the Jets.
I can see the Jets or Ravnes flipping on the seeding. I just ranked them according to my EW number, without taking into account tie-breakers. I'm all about the numbers. ;)


2. You assume Pats and Steelers having byes in round 1.
This is the most likely situation.


3. For the Pats to have the bye, they have to beat the Jets 12/6 (which I think they do)
I don't see them loosing to the Jets at Foxboro. That will be enough to give them the edge, I think.


4. For the Steelers to have the bye, they have to beat the Jets and the Ravens. Given the Steelers record vs playoff teams this year, this is unlikely.
You are expecting the Ravens to win all their games. Their defense isn't looking as good as it should, and they face three winning teams (Tampa, Pitt and Saints). I expect them to go 1-2 in that listing. I do expect the Steelers to beat the Ravens. In almost every statistical measure I can come up with, the Steelers are better than the Ravens.


5. Even if they do, however, that would tie the Jets and Ravens, giving the Ravens the 5 seed, not the Jets.
I think you are giving way too much credit to the Ravens. They aren't nearly as solid as people think.


6. So, for the Ravens to take the six seed, they'd have to lose to Pitt and one other team, *and* the Jets would have to lose to Pats and Steelers, *and* Pitt has to go 6-0 over the last six.

- Look, we agree that the number 1 and 2 seed will come out of the North and East. At this point that is almost a given.

- The Ravens face a tough schedule ahead. People keep discounting the BUcs, but at the end of the day they are a winning team, and they have done it on the road. The Saints are back to form. And I think Pitt is better.

- The Jets don't convince me either. Holmes is a beast, but at some point the luck will turn.

The number 1 seed requires the Steelers to win-out, and for the Pats to loose 2 games. But the Pats have 3 division games and 2 games against top NFC north teams. So it's not easy sledding for them.

And Ben is playing well: 8.44 YPA, 62.6%, 12TD/4INT

In the end, if you ask me what the "real" seedings are going to be, I'd say
1. NE
2. Pitt
3. Colts
4. Chargers
5. Jets
6. Ravens

But that's me predicting. My rankings are based solely on SoS...;)

mkocs6
11-24-2010, 04:30 PM
Top 10 Week #12

6. NY Jets - Sanchez is making plays to win close games, he must be mentioned in the conversation of most promising young QB's

Turk, I appreciate what Sanchez has done recently, but I would like to point out that he has defeated three teams--in Detroit, Cleveland, and Houston--who notoriously have not finished close football games for the last decade. There is a reason these franchises have been so snake-bitten, and that the last playoff team among them was Cleveland in 2002.

Turk Schonert
11-24-2010, 04:49 PM
Turk, I appreciate what Sanchez has done recently, but I would like to point out that he has defeated three teams--in Detroit, Cleveland, and Houston--who notoriously have not finished close football games for the last decade. There is a reason these franchises have been so snake-bitten, and that the last playoff team among them was Cleveland in 2002.

It doesn't matter who the opponent is, it's the pressure of the situation that counts. A major factor in measuring the maturation and progress of a young QB is how he responds to, and how he leads his team in ... a stressful environment. Running a two minute drill when trailing is a stressful environment, especially when on the road, or, without any timeouts. Sanchez has encountered both scenarios over the last 3 weeks ... resulting in 3 wins. That ... is balling!!!

mkocs6
11-24-2010, 05:28 PM
It doesn't matter who the opponent is, it's the pressure of the situation that counts. A major factor in determining the maturation and progress of a QB is how he responds and leads his team in a stressful environment. Running a two minute drill when trailing is a stressful environment, especially when on the road, or, without any timeouts. Sanchez has done both in 3 consecutive weeks ... resulting in 3 wins. That ... is balling!!!

Ehhhhhh... The game against Cleveland did not really look like this. The Jets led for the entire second half, holding the football for over twenty minutes of it, and Sanchez could never get them in the end zone to put the game away. The Jets never trailed in the second half, and Ryan didn't even give Sanchez the green light to try to get down field with :40ish seconds left and good field position. Then in overtime, after being bailed out a by a Browns fumble and some odd playcalling in the shadow of their own goalposts, Mark Sanchez threw a bad pass behind Santonio Holmes which he grabbed and then proceeded to run through three pitiful non-tackles to score.

He's better than he was last year, but I'm not sure about this killer instinct everyone is promoting. I think it's in the league's interest to have a star quarterback in New York, and you're seeing a lot of hype because of it. The Lions lost their starting quarterback and imploded; the Browns inexplicably fumbled away the game; the Texans have the softest defense in the history of pro football.

Not to turn this into a Browns thread, but contrast what Sanchez is doing (with LT, Holmes, Edwards, Cotchery, Keller) with what Colt McCoy has done each of the last two weeks. McCoy has led three drives inside of three minutes--the Browns trailing for two of them, tied for another--and he's moved the ball down the field each time with no weapons, scoring on two of the three, and coming damn close on the third. And he has virtually no weapons! As great as Peyton Hillis is, his running style is of pretty limited utility when you need to score in 2 minutes or less. I understand that Sanchez is playing pretty well, but let's not turn his performances into something they're not.

bluestree
11-24-2010, 05:40 PM
IMO almost everybody has the Jets, Ravens and Steelers too high. Also "Matty Ice" (lame nickname) hasn't won a playoff game, has he? Similar to the Vikings, you can say Atlanta is tough to beat at home, but in the long run, they too might turn out to be a "home in the dome" frontrunner. A win by NO at Atl coould upset their apple cart.

KabaModernFan
11-24-2010, 06:57 PM
The defense isn't looking as good as it should? The Ravens are 8th in total defense, 10th in passing YPG, 9th in rushing YPG, and 6th in PPG. They're also 9th in defensive DVOA, what more do you want?

Amy
11-24-2010, 07:17 PM
Ehhhhhh... The game against Cleveland did not really look like this. The Jets led for the entire second half, holding the football for over twenty minutes of it, and Sanchez could never get them in the end zone to put the game away. The Jets never trailed in the second half, and Ryan didn't even give Sanchez the green light to try to get down field with :40ish seconds left and good field position. Then in overtime, after being bailed out a by a Browns fumble and some odd playcalling in the shadow of their own goalposts, Mark Sanchez threw a bad pass behind Santonio Holmes which he grabbed and then proceeded to run through three pitiful non-tackles to score.

He's better than he was last year, but I'm not sure about this killer instinct everyone is promoting. I think it's in the league's interest to have a star quarterback in New York, and you're seeing a lot of hype because of it. The Lions lost their starting quarterback and imploded; the Browns inexplicably fumbled away the game; the Texans have the softest defense in the history of pro football.

Not to turn this into a Browns thread, but contrast what Sanchez is doing (with LT, Holmes, Edwards, Cotchery, Keller) with what Colt McCoy has done each of the last two weeks. McCoy has led three drives inside of three minutes--the Browns trailing for two of them, tied for another--and he's moved the ball down the field each time with no weapons, scoring on two of the three, and coming damn close on the third. And he has virtually no weapons! As great as Peyton Hillis is, his running style is of pretty limited utility when you need to score in 2 minutes or less. I understand that Sanchez is playing pretty well, but let's not turn his performances into something they're not.

I agree with 6 here when it comes to the Browns game. The Browns gave that game away in OT much more then the Jets won it. However, I do agree with Turk when it comes to the last minute of the Texans game, though. I do think that Mark Sanchez is showing clutch performances, but he still checks down too much as is not very good in poor weather. I also agree with 6 that given the differences in playmakers, McCoy has been more impressive then Sanchez.

bluestree
11-24-2010, 07:57 PM
. I do think that Mark Sanchez is showing clutch performances, but he still checks down too much as is not very good in poor weather. I also agree with 6 that given the differences in playmakers, McCoy has been more impressive then Sanchez.

Put Matt Ryan in there, too. Looking good, but he's got to get through all the steps before you can consider putting him on the next level. The way it's shaping up, Sanchez and Ryan are going to get the chance to take the next step this season, they play a good teams. It would not surprise me if McCoy surpassed them both down the road. If not, he's one helluva flash in the pan.

msclemons
11-24-2010, 08:06 PM
Look Ma, I'm on top of the world!
1) Tom Brady’s flowing locks are providing warmth and shelter for a young team
2) The House that Deion built is unfriendly to visitors
3) Greg Jennings is on our roster? Well heck, let’s throw it to him!
4) Mark Sanchez’ pretty, pretty smile keeps the stadium lit when the power goes out
5) The offense is so potent that only Cam Cameron can stop it
6) How many women cheered when Seymour decked Big Ben?
7) Santa may be safe in Philly this year
8) Mr. Brees, exactly how do you do that voodoo that you do so well?
9) I just want to pinch Cutler’s chubby little cheeks
10) The winner of SNF goes here – should be a good game between Indy’s 4th string DBs and San Diego’s 4th string receivers.

Honorable mention: Tampa Bay (beating the 49ers doesn’t move you up, sorry)

No wire hangers, ever!
28) Singletary’s plan to eradicate the forward pass from the NFL is proceeding nicely. Also forward runs. Next step: eliminate offense entirely and only play defense and special teams.
29) Happy Thanksgiving Detroit. For your holiday enjoyment you get the best team in the league. Also, Roger Goodell hates you. Yes, you, personally.
30) Mike Brown is upset that Cleveland fans are more downtrodden than Cincinnati fans. He vows to fix that.
31) Kurt Warner has been forced to block all calls from the state of Arizona
32) After reviewing the situation in Carolina, Andrew Luck has opted to stay at Stanford another year
(dis)honorable mentions: Vikings – Can Leslie Frazier copy Jason Garrett?

brauneyz
11-24-2010, 08:22 PM
Clem, is it too late to finagle an invite to your place for dinner tomorrow? Your killing' me here ... :)

bluestree
11-24-2010, 08:42 PM
Santa is never safe in Philly, never I tells ya'!

GoBigOrGoHome
11-24-2010, 08:49 PM
29) Happy Thanksgiving Detroit. For your holiday enjoyment you get the best team in the league. Also, Roger Goodell hates you. Yes, you, personally.

Dude, that ain't right. That just ain't right.

On that note, you are absolutlely right.

Amy
11-24-2010, 11:01 PM
6) How many women cheered when Seymour decked Big Ben?

At least 1. I only wish he'd hit him harder, given him a hit that was worth 25k.

iwatt
11-25-2010, 11:27 AM
The defense isn't looking as good as it should? The Ravens are 8th in total defense, 10th in passing YPG, 9th in rushing YPG, and 6th in PPG. They're also 9th in defensive DVOA, what more do you want?

Kaba, let me rephrase. The defense isn't looking as good as we've come to expect from them. I'd say they are the 6th best defense in the game, only behind Pitt, Green Bay, Saints, Jets, and the Bears.

But for the past 10 years they've usually been a top 3 defense. And they've looked shaky ever since the Bills game. Miami has no offense, the Ravens just walked up the field at the end, the Panthers kept it close until the 4th quarter with an untested QB with no knowledge of the system.

Look, all I'm saying is the defense seems to be trending down in the second half.