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View Full Version : Measure Twice, Cut never.



darvon
02-21-2011, 08:58 PM
The most important position in football is the QB.

And, as a fan, what I keep hearing from the experts is that the most important characteristic of a QB is accuracy.

I assume that means dynamic accuracy. The ability to throw it through a window that moves and opens and shuts in time.

So why don't they have a quantitative measurement of QB accuracy in the combine. I can easily imagine a set of rails/robots which go down paths and randomly "become open" with little targets to hit. It would be very repeatable and a QB could get a reliable score.

So with all the control freaks and quants in the NFL, why don't they have a quantitative measure of QB accuracy?

I remember a sports show a year ago, probably ESPN that threw up a little accuracy test. And lo and behold, guess who came out the best by the numbers? Drew Brees.

So test with numbers that relate to actual NFL patterns are easily doable. Even the stupid little TV show could readily differentiate between Drew Brees and Jamarcus Russell.

So why doesn't the combine do it?

Docta
02-21-2011, 09:06 PM
You'd have to see how they'd do it under pressure, which wouldn't be possible at a combine.

darvon
02-21-2011, 09:16 PM
1) Any number is better than no number.

2) Make a time limit for pressure. There is a thousand ways to do this. It can be improved with practice.

3) The stupid TV show was able to rank Drew Brees on top.


Just because a test isn't an exact analog for real life, doesn't mean it can't CORRELATE with real life. Important point of experimental science.

We test drugs on lab rats, but we aren't trying to make drugs for lab rats.

Wordsworth
02-21-2011, 09:28 PM
I think the show you're talking about is Sport Science, because I believe I saw that same episode. Great show.

darvon
02-21-2011, 09:31 PM
It was a great show. And I am calling it stupid, when I probably should call it simple. It was simply a tv show with a certain episode wanting to quantify QB "accuracy" and it did enough of a good job that it got results which highly correlate with our own qualitative rankings.

So a concerted effort by the NFL Combine should be able to produce a series of tests with a MUCH HIGHER correlation with success.

SO WHY DON"T THEY????

GoBigOrGoHome
02-21-2011, 09:40 PM
The stupid show is Sport Science.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c6EguTZFK5s

darvon
02-22-2011, 02:39 AM
Where is the film from Josh McCown as referenced at 3:13 on this film? I can't google it.

Polishguy00
02-22-2011, 07:51 AM
I like the idea, but I have a feeling that not much would change; at least initally. The top quarterbacks would argue that their play on the field is enough and would choose not to do the test on their Pro Days. Top guys will throw comfortably to their own receivers and look good by routinely throwing 40+ completions out of 45 throws. The quarterbacks who show up at the combine who would do the test would be the ones who have nothing to lose (Think Pat Devlin). Teams may get frustrated with the lack of numbers for the top guys, but hype, fan pressure, internal scouts, Scouts, Inc., etc. would all still pressure the team to take the guy who looks the best.

I bet there would be a good correlation between NFL success and a test like this, but it takes the first perceived gamble being successful to provide change. Only then would there be a situation where Team X tells Top Prospect Z that they will not draft him unless he does the test. It could be a possible long term solution, though. Since I like numbers, I would love to see this test.

Polishguy00
02-22-2011, 07:59 AM
The stupid show is Sport Science.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c6EguTZFK5s

I had not seen this before. It makes me think that it is not good news for Jay Cutler. I will now hang my head in sadness.

darvon
02-22-2011, 08:00 AM
It's interesting that the test would be declined by the QBs. But you just gotta keep gathering the numbers and let peer pressure and competitive spirit motivate people to test.

Remember even Peyton went to the combine, but some would not go. That in itself would raise questions. Remember also that there will be a rookie scale in place.

Turk Schonert
02-23-2011, 11:26 AM
darvon, there is a measuring device ... game film. The sports science display showed that an accurate QB can hit a target with better frequency than an Olympic archer. Accuracy in NFL games comes with a lot more than being completely balanced, having no obstruction, and throwing at a stationary target.

Wordsworth
02-23-2011, 01:57 PM
I had seen that before but I just watched it again and it really is amazing. Brees is the man.