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On Handicapping

Exploring the theoretical aspects of predicting NFL games, focusing more on finding viable processes than the actual win/loss records.

  1. Lazy Man's Fantasy League

    On Monday, we will be having our third annual auction for our Fantasy Owner's League, an idea I came up with two years ago that has been a real hoot. No longer being young, the time and effort of making a fantasy football team actually competitive was too much for me. Plus, fantasy football suffers from the problem of teams shutting down late in the season in unpredictable manners.

    My solution was to create a fantasy league where, instead of drafting players, you auctioned off all ...
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  2. Handicapping Odds & Ends

    It turns out the real world can really get in the way of a good handicapping season. I've always believed you can do about 50/50 while flipping coins but you do worse than 50/50 putting in a little effort, especially if you know the game. That sounds counter-intuitive, and I have no proof, but my feeling is doing a little homework lets you know just enough to fall into a bunch of traps. Busy people with real jobs who try to spend an hour or two per week handicapping are prone to this outcome, in ...
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  3. How To Win an Office Pool

    Alternative title: Football-Neutral Pools Hedge Strategy

    A buddy and I came up with this strategy about 10 years ago and it has generated a significant net profit since and a profit in probably 7 or 8 of the years. You'll notice the title is not "How to Win YOUR Office Pool" and you'll probably realize that it's too late to do much for this year, but it's a strategy worth knowing and implementing next year.

    Basically, all you need to do is to enter two pools ...
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  4. (Unsuccessful) Handicapping Update

    Well, my day job is in the investment arena so my blogging has been minimal of date and will probably be sporadic this year. No great loss to the community!

    I did want to update a couple of topics, though. This year’s Hilton SuperContest set a record for entrants, assuredly as a result of publicity last year engendered by Bill Simmons entering, writing and tweeting about the contest and Chad Millman not only doing the same but talking about the legal proxy services available for ...
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  5. Second Year of the Best Fantasy League Going

    I thought I'd update you on the second year of my Fantasy Owners League. We had our draft last night and it was an absolute hoot. The goal of this league is to provide maximum enjoyment for minimal effort, while making every game played of interest to the league. The solution to this riddle was to auction off all the teams in the league, making us true franchise owners, instead of the players. After the draft night, no further work is required to have full-throttle participation for the whole season. ...
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