• Return of the Stat Geek

    Tom Brady has 1553 passing yards after 4 games, an average of 388.25 yards/game. At his current pace he would finish with 6212 yards. He needs to average 295 yards/game the rest of the year to break Dan Marino’s record of 5084.

    However, after throwing for 517 yards in week 1 Brady’s yards have dropped every week. Brady’s passing yards/game have conformed to the following formula every week: round(passing yards/100)*100=600-(week*100). If that holds true for the entire season, in week 17 he will throw for -1000 yards. This is the dumbest stat ever.

    Steve Smith (Panther variety) has 530 receiving yards in 4 games, an average of 132.5 yards/game, which projects to 2120 (NFL record is 1848 by Jerry Rice in ’95). He needs 25 yards to pass his total for last year, 554 yards in 14 games. He has at least 150 receiving yards in 3 out of 4 games, all losses. In the Panthers only win he had 2 catches for 15 yards.

    The most amazing thing about Steve Smith’s 530 receiving yards is that it doesn’t lead the NFL. Wes Welker has 616 receiving yards (projects to 2464). Like Smith, he also has 150+ receiving yards in 3 out of 4 games, including 217 yards in the Patriots’ only loss of the year. He has at least 7 catches in every game and is averaging 10 catches/game. Wes Welker has 5 fewer receiving yards than the Jacksonville Jaguars (and 71 more than the Colts, but the Colts have only played 3 games).

    The Cleveland Browns defense is currently ranked 9th in the NFL, but 4th in their own division. The top 3 defenses in the NFL right now are all from the AFC North. The Cincinnati Bengals have the #1 defense, the New England Patriots are dead last. It's possible that this is a sign of the end of the world, I'm consulting a Mayan calendar.

    Eagles’ DE Jason Babin leads the NFL with 7 sacks. The Texans #1 pick in 2004, he had 17.5 sacks in his first 66 games, 19.5 sacks in his last 20 games.

    The two worst teams in net points right now are the Chiefs (-77) and Rams (-67). The state of Missouri has been outscored by 143 points this year (an average of 17.9 points per game).

    Not only are the Lions 4-0, but their average margin of victory at home is 45 points. Ok, they’ve only played 1 home game which they won 48-3, but that means they are 3-0 on the road and play their next 3 at home. In the last 2 weeks, come from behind wins over the Vikings and Cowboys, the Lions have been outscored 40-3 in the first half and outscored opponents 54-13 in the second. For the season they’ve outscored opponents 89-20 in the 2nd half, 51-10 in the 4th quarter (and 3-0 in OT).

    The 4-0 Lions are halfway to matching their win total for the last 3 years combined. The win over the Cowboys this week was the 500th regular season win in franchise history (including their first 4 years as the Portsmouth Spartans).

    Calvin Johnson leads the NFL with 8 TDs, he has 2 TD catches in each game.

    No rookie quarterback has a negative TD to INT differential this year. No rookie quarterback has a positive TD to INT differential this year. (Newton 5 TDs – 5 INTs, Dalton 4 TDs – 4 INTs, Gabbert 2 TDs – 2 INTs).

    If you’re playing the Patriots and you win the toss, don’t defer. Tom Brady has a 156.0 rating the first quarter this year. The Patriots have outscored opponents 72-34 in the first half, but have been outscored 64-63 in the second half. The Pats have scored in 15 of 16 quarters this year (all except the 3rd quarter of week 2 win over the Chargers).

    The Titans are a surprising 3-1, especially when you consider that they are 32nd in rushing offense at 66.8 yards/game. Chris Johnson is averaging 2.9 yards/carry and hasn’t scored a TD, but did have his first 100-yard game of the year this week (23-101-0, 4.4/carry in 31-13 win over the Browns).

    The Packers scored more points this week than either the Rams or Jaguars have scored in their first 4 games combined. The Jaguars are 32nd in the NFL in scoring at 9.8 points per game.

    Steelers, Colts and Chiefs, 3 of the AFC’s 4 defending division champs, are all in last place. Though the Steelers are tied for 2nd place in the AFC North, only 1 game behind the Ravens.

    Comments 12 Comments
    1. Pruitt's Avatar
      The 4-0 Lions are halfway to matching their win total for the last 3 years combined
      Unbelievable. Not so much that they are 4-0 (a lot of people thought they'd be good), but that they'd won 8 games in the previous three years.

      I'll tell you, the Fords must have hired an exorcist to remove the Millen stench. This team is unrecognizable.
    1. NickMykita's Avatar
      The big phrase everyone's tossing around is "The Lions are 4-0 for the 1st time since 1980." Usually when people say that, they're not just making the historical comparison, but also referencing a great team in their history. But don't get too excited, Lions fans: when they started 4-0 in 1980, they finished at 9-7 and missed the playoffs. Still, 4-0 is a small victory for a team that's 3 years removed from 0-for-the-season.
    1. Trumpetbdw's Avatar
      The Cleveland Browns defense is currently ranked 9th in the NFL, but 4th in their own division. The top 3 defenses in the NFL right now are all from the AFC North. The Cincinnati Bengals have the #1 defense, the New England Patriots are dead last. It's possible that this is a sign of the end of the world, I'm consulting a Mayan calendar.
      Perfect analysis as to why cumulative offensive and defensive stats are meaningless. I'm sure the Bengals have earned their ranking, and I know the Ravens have, but the Steelers being in the top 3 at this point is shocking, and flat wrong. The NFL should reevaluate their method for evaluating team statistics.

      No rookie quarterback has a negative TD to INT differential this year. No rookie quarterback has a positive TD to INT differential this year. (Newton 5 TDs – 5 INTs, Dalton 4 TDs – 4 INTs, Gabbert 2 TDs – 2 INTs).
      Not to force sponsorship on what you do, but this should be the "Fresh Step Scoopable Kitty Litter" Random Stat of the Week. Well done.
    1. darvon's Avatar
      The exorcists name is Tom Llewellyn.

      Once you get a good GM the rest usually comes.

      Tom Llewellyn was responsible for building Ford Field for the Lions. He was put on that before Millen came to town, and when Millen came, Tom was still in the middle of a new stadium, so Millen got all the Football responsibility. As anyone in Detroit can tell you, the stadium came about so slick that I heard not 1 word of negativity during the whole process. Tom is REAL good. Then when Tom got done with the stadium, he took the business responsibilities away from Millen, so Matt could focus on personnel issues. Well we all saw how that worked out, but during Tom's reign there were NO business problems with the Lions, just on the field ones.

      When Matt finally got canned, Tom was President. He picked the new GM and the rest is history.

      Tom is golden. If he ever leaves the Lions we will be doomed to forty years in the desert again.

      Sometimes the owner can do the "boss" things, sometimes its the Pres, sometimes the GM. William Clay Ford is a lousy boss, but he does like to be hands off. Now that Tom is there, we can be a real team. That's all we need to be. Just competitive. Make a playoff half the time and someday it will all align and we will go to our first Superbowl, the last of the pre-superbowl teams to make it to the Superbowl (I don't count the back from the dead Browns as being pre-Superbowl).
    1. Trumpetbdw's Avatar
      So Tom Llewellyn is to the Lions what Doug Llewelyn was to "The People's Court".
    1. Dave Lapham's Avatar
      I know Cris takes care of you Andy, but I am a stats fan and you my man ARE THE MAN!!! Would you consider weekends of high school, Big 12, and Bengals Radio Network matchups? I could keep you busy, but could I afford you?
    1. Andy Freeland's Avatar
      Quote Originally Posted by Dave Lapham View Post
      I know Cris takes care of you Andy, but I am a stats fan and you my man ARE THE MAN!!! Would you consider weekends of high school, Big 12, and Bengals Radio Network matchups? I could keep you busy, but could I afford you?
      Thanks Dave, sounds like fun but I would need a week to be expanded to 16 days. I don't know how you do it, I used to do college games and that was tougher than pro, high school must be even worse. Don't you sleep?
    1. BuckeyeRidley's Avatar
      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ytCE...layer_embedded
    1. packa7x's Avatar
      You're giving me a stats stiffy!
    1. Bengals1181's Avatar
      Quote Originally Posted by Andy Freeland View Post
      Thanks Dave, sounds like fun but I would need a week to be expanded to 16 days. I don't know how you do it, I used to do college games and that was tougher than pro, high school must be even worse. Don't you sleep?

      I don't know how he does it either. He does:

      A 3 hour Bengals radio show monday nights

      A 2 hour bengals radio show wednesday nights

      A 30 minute preview of the Bengals game for Bengals.com

      A cincinnati high school game thursday night

      I think another 3 hour bengals radio show friday afternoon (not sure on this, been awhile since I listened)

      A Big 12 game on Saturday afternoon

      A Bengals game on Sunday.

      He also covers Bengals press conferences post game, on Monday, and on Wednesday.

      And preps for all of them throughout the week and still shows up here.

      Lapham is a machine.
    1. BuckeyeRidley's Avatar
      As for Dave & Cris, I hope they don't drink motor oil or anti-freeze and that's the secret! Also, that reminds me When do they get their oil changed? Who takes it? Oh Well.

      Andy certainly came up with the Good again. Glad Clavin Johnson is balling out in DET. Cris Carter even was back peddling this week too. That's a Mad Upgrade from Roy Williams. Guess One of Matt Millen's picks were a fan favorite. Good Choice.
    1. msclemons's Avatar
      Eagles’ DE Jason Babin leads the NFL with 7 sacks. The Texans #1 pick in 2004, he had 17.5 sacks in his first 66 games, 19.5 sacks in his last 20 games.
      I thought Babin was a one year wonder and a colossal free agency mistake by the Eagles. Oops!
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