It's raining money, why don't the Browns get a bowl?

How does one compute the value of the player who will be cut to make room for a kickoff specialist?

I'm a little skeptical that you can find guys who can do this consistently and accurately just anywhere. It seems easy for a kicker to plop a kickoff anywhere in a 160 foot area, but after trying to wail it 230 feet downfield, I'm not sure it is. What is the risk of an errant kickoff out-of-bounds, and what are the consequences of them? I'm sure the second question is answerable, but the first one you could only determine by working a bunch of these guys out.

The Panthers had their own kickoff specialist a few years back with a guy by the name of Rhys Lloyd I believe. I also believe that Rhys Lloyd is no longer employed by an NFL team.

Originally Posted by wxwax

How does one compute the value of the player who will be cut to make room for a kickoff specialist?

Teams do that all the time. They always make the determination who is not worthy of the last roster spot. I just think the rule changes make a unique opportunity for someone who is in 5 plays a week to consistantly be valuable.

Originally Posted by darvon

Teams do that all the time. They always make the determination who is not worthy of the last roster spot. I just think the rule changes make a unique opportunity for someone who is in 5 plays a week to consistantly be valuable.

On a game day, if you're dressing a kickoff specialist, you're not dressing a third quarterback.

David Buehler is out there for anyone who wants him. He sucks at field goals but he has a hell of a leg.

In 2010 there were 45480 return yds for a 22.29 avg. In 2011 when I normalize the lessened returns to include the lesser number as a touchback of 20 yards its 30505 return yds for an average of 26.42 yds, which included the 20 yd touchbacks and the returns. The rule change gave the kicker 5 yards, but gave up 4.13yds. Win for the league. The kicking team gained almost a yard.

Under the new rules, having a kickoff specialist is a pure waste of a roster spot. It was a mild waste last year. A TOTAL waste this year. You don't burn a spot for a guy that gains next to zero. 9 less tds this year vs last. That's a minuscule % per game per team.. .123 pts per game to be exact. Using average starting yard as a stat is pure lunacy to justify when a team scores.. Too much happenstance and conjecture to even attempt to argue the point. 5 yards in field position do NOT equate to 24 pts per season, not for every team.

It's a cross section over arching stat that doesn't take into account a teams offensive or defensive abilities. It's an average of all teams, not what the browns could produce. Their offense sucked. Their defense was average. The gain from the kickoffs stops when the offense and defense come on the field. Cleveland could have gained 10 more yards from kickoffs they made and it would have done nothing.

They couldn't stop the run, and continually played from behind. The reality is 1st and 10 from the 20 would erase a 5 yard deficit, most times given their 4.4 yd avg they allowed. In reality it would not help them given the stats you've given, bc on second down they run again and have a 3rd and 1, most times.

Sorry, but the fantasy and reality don't intersect when applying stats that use the "average" when were debating a team that's at the bottom of the league, or near in many categories. This isn't a one fix team. A kickoff specialist doesn't make the skins better than the pats. It most certainly doesn't make the browns better than the pats.

Nice idea, but so was the book 1984. doesn't put either even a step closer to reality.

Originally Posted by mikesteelnation1

...

Nice idea, but so was the book 1984. doesn't put either even a step closer to reality.

I'm not going to take issue with any of your football points, but I think you may have missed the point of 1984.

Originally Posted by mkocs6

I'm not going to take issue with any of your football points, but I think you may have missed the point of 1984.

You calling me a dumb jock??

I didn't miss the end point, but all the steps getting there cloud the picture. Were not talking about the ideals, just the application in reality of the entire prose. That was my point, in this post. That's what's important in football. What's real and can be proven vs the implied or inferred point.

Just to point out that in 1984, Winston Smith ultimately failed in his opposition to the tyranny of Big Brother.

And that in the same season the Browns were 5-11.

Perhaps we Browns fans should hope for some sort of world where doublespeak is in common usage. That way, 5-11 seasons could be considered a success.

We have always been 5-11, Pruitt.

Also, 2+2=5-11.

And we haven't beaten Eurasia in decades.

<hijack>

Nineteen Eighty-Four was spot-on both as a metaphor and, sadly, in some of its specifics.

For example, in England the surveillance camera system is so widespread that a proposed law would make it impossible to get gas at a gas station if you haven't paid your car taxes. The camera would look at your plate and computers would determine your tax status before granting you permission to fill 'er up.

As for the metaphor, consider this from Wiki:

"As literary political fiction and as dystopian science-fiction, Nineteen Eighty-Four is a classic novel in content, plot, and style. Many of its terms and concepts, such as Big Brother, doublethink, thoughtcrime, Newspeak, and memory hole, have become contemporary vernacular since its publication in 1949. Moreover, Nineteen Eighty-Four popularised the adjective Orwellian, which refers to official deception, secret surveillance, and manipulation of the past in service to a totalitarian or manipulative political agenda."

</hijack>

In 2010 there were 45480 return yds for a 22.29 avg. In 2011 when I normalize the lessened returns to include the lesser number as a touchback of 20 yards its 30505 return yds for an average of 26.42 yds, which included the 20 yd touchbacks and the returns. The rule change gave the kicker 5 yards, but gave up 4.13yds. Win for the league. The kicking team gained almost a yard.

We did this before. You need to compare field position to field position, not to runbacks. But let's look at the numbers your presented.

First, let me make sure I am understanding your numbers correctly.
- 30505 return yds in 2011? And that includes 20 yards for each touchback? OK. Something is not right in my understanding. I recall 5.1 KOs per team per game. 32 teams x 5.1 x 16 games (I think this is a regular season stat, is yours?). That would say about 2700 KOs. If they averaged (including TBs @ 20 yds) 26.42, then you should get about 60,000 yards. I think your return numbers might be excluding TBs.

- Return yardage isn't the same as starting field position. My value calculations are simply on the difference between the 20 and the 25 (on avg) 5 times a game, every week. Although that isn't the difference between 3-13 and 16-0, I think it is significant.

- I also don't know the value of the last roster spot to an NFL team. Someone commented about not dressing the 3rd QB, but I can't remember the last time I saw 3 QBs rotate into a game, and although my memory isn't perfect, I have 45 years of games watched. This is where I think the NFL is probably too staid. I would bet that most clubs don't know the actual marginal value of the last roster spot. And I bet it isn't a net 400 yards or 25 less points.

- It isn't just the Browns, it's just that they had the worse TB %. Others with low percentages include Atlanta, NYJ, Rams, Buff, Minn...

Could ATL used a -25 in PA for 2011?

And notice that the # of KOs went UP last year by 6%. If it goes up again, that will just increase the effect.




The league avg for PA is about 350. An additional -25 is huge value for the 53rd man, I would conclude.

Too much happenstance and conjecture to even attempt to argue the point. 5 yards in field position do NOT equate to 24 pts per season, not for every team.

It's 25 yards each game, but your point is taken. Still even bad teams only allow about 300-350 Yards Against per game. 25 is still a pretty big number, but does that actually result in 25 pts per season, since it is with sub par defenses? Or just longer drives that score anyway?

I couldn't find any stats on team average start position. Instead I extrapolated my return yard stats vs total kickoffs and added the appropriate yards for the touchbacks for the receiving team to compare 2010 and 2011. Unless someone else has a link, its the best were going to get.

The yardage and points added links you posted and made reference to may be for going from worst to first, but far off the averages. Remember this is a league of parity, and you're very unlikely to go from #32 to #1 at ANYTHING by signing one guy. ESPECIALLY a kicker who only touches the ball 5.1 times a game...

Based on an aggregate touch back % of 41.34% in 2011 vs a 15.92% in 2010 and 2039 fielded returns in 2010, using the increase in total kickoffs in 2011 to be 2576 total with 30505yds gained on fielded kicks and giving 20yds for all touchbacks in both seasons. Here's what we have:

Kickoffs yielded an avg of 21.93 in 2010, and an average of 20.11 in 2011. The average is under 150 yards per season difference. Under 10yds a game. I know u like stats so I did the math and research. I'm sick of looking at spread sheets, but I'd venture to say scoring overall was up this year vs last.

Hmmm.. interesting.. scoring went up when kickoffs were made less meaningful..supposedly more field to cover. the whole premise of the kicking game making any negligible difference on a large scale is laughable. I'm sick of spreadsheets, but I feel strongly about my point here, so I looked at scoring league wide for the 2 years.

11281 points scored in 2010 with a ton less touch backs. 11326 scored in 2011 with a metric ton of touch backs. Add to that the 14 lesser tds scored on kickoffs and we have 143 more points scored based on non kickoff scores.

The league averages don't even come close to your op Darvon. The kicking game difference made next to zero difference in the avg return yards adjusted for touchbacks, and the new rule led to more scoring.

End point you gain NOTHING on average by having a kickoff specialist. Furthermore refer to my previous post about happenstance and conjecture sans judging said teams ability on offense and defense.

As far as that last roster slot I've proven quite adequately why gms don't carry a kickoff specialist in most cases. Better to have a special teams ace to cut down on potential returns.. wait it looks like gms saw the same thing seeing as how a perceived advantage wasn't anything of the sort. Dress a 3rd qb as u see fit. That would also contribute more than a kickoff specialist when its fact more touchbacks don't lead to more points scored...

Originally Posted by Pruitt

Just to point out that in 1984, Winston Smith ultimately failed in his opposition to the tyranny of Big Brother.

And that in the same season the Browns were 5-11.

Perhaps we Browns fans should hope for some sort of world where doublespeak is in common usage. That way, 5-11 seasons could be considered a success.

5-11 seasons would still be a thoughtcrime and a memoryhole in believing they were a success. Doublespeak doesn't trump the other orwellian platitudes here, given the entire history of the brownies in their most recent resurrection.

Guess I'm not as dumb a jock as some believed?

Originally Posted by mikesteelnation1

5-11 seasons would still be a thoughtcrime and a memoryhole in believing they were a success. Doublespeak doesn't trump the other orwellian platitudes here, given the entire history of the brownies in their most recent resurrection.

Guess I'm not as dumb a jock as some believed?

"Thoughtcrime" is the perfect term.

I'll alert Tom Cruise.

the new rule led to more scoring.

Au contraire,

The new kickoff rules could not contain the jump in scoring caused by other factors. Just wait til you see the scoring jump in 2012.

Except against the few teams that employ a TB specialist...


And more data is coming out for 2011 all the time. The data I used in the OP wasn't there 2 weeks ago.

In a couple of months all of it should be gathered and published.