• FP Fantasy Commish Picks: Week 2 Waiver Wire Report

    As Kenny Rogers once sang, “You’ve got to know when to hold ‘em, know when to fold ‘em, know when to walk away, and know when to run.” That thought leads to our strategy in fantasy football following week 1. I’m holding onto, or being patient with Titus Young, Ryan Williams, David Wilson, and Jermaine Gresham, to name a few. I’m folding on DeAngelo Williams and Cedric Benson. I’m creating a contingency plan on Chris Johnson (we’ve seen this before) and keeping an eye on Wes Welker, who was in the game for less than 2/3 of New England’s offensive snaps. As for knowing whom to run after, in most cases, we don’t yet know how everything is going to play out. For this week, my goal is to sift through all of the week 1 overreaction and if I have an open roster spot, I want to gamble on greatness. The name of the game is not about avoiding overreactions entirely, it’s about knowing whom to overreact about.

    Mark Sanchez, QB- Did you know that Sanchez finished last season as the #10 ranked QB in total points. And while Sanchez has generally been considered a bust, he also has the 4th most total TDs of any 25 year old QB in league history. Sanchez had a big game on Sunday against a Bills defense that didn’t play nearly as well as many were expecting. Moving forward, Sanchez certainly is not close to being an every week starter, but he has enough weapons (thank you Stephen Hill) to make him a pretty good matchup play and bye-week fill-in. Still young, Sanchez has more upside than both Ryan Fitzpatrick and Andy Dalton, just to name 2.

    Alfred Morris, RB- Shanahanigans were on full display as Morris got the surprise start this week in favor of announced starter Evan Royster. Morris looked pretty good with his opportunity, but his most impressive number was the 28 touches he received. I can’t say I completely trust him moving forward, since this is Mike Shanahan we’re talking about, but perhaps there’s some legitimacy here. He certainly won’t be receiving 28 carries every week, but the possibility alone that he could become a starting RB with consistent touches makes him the Fresh Step Scoopable Kitty Litter pickup of the week.

    Randall Cobb, WR- With Driver nearly done, and Jennings possibly in his last year in GB, it sure looks like the Packers want to utilize Cobb this year. He had 9 targets, and they used him multiple times out of the backfield to try and give him open space. It appears that he’s currently their #3 receiver. He didn’t play a ton of snaps, but he has similar usage to what Jordy Nelson did to start last year. Cobb certainly could flame out, but a small uptick in opportunity, combined with the GB offense gives Cobb the highest potential of anyone else potentially available on your wire this week.

    Stephen Hill, WR- The question regarding Hill coming out of Ga Tech was not size or ability, it was polish, considering their style of offense. However, Hill certainly looked to have a lot of polish and chemistry with Mark Sanchez this week. If the goal when adding after week 1 is to aim for a home run (and it is), then Hill should be added in all formats this week.

    Kevin Ogletree, WR- I talked about him at length in the comment section of last week’s waiver wire column. In summation, as long as he’s the #3 WR (and 5th option moving forward), I don’t think he can give consistent value. He’s worth an add, but not over Cobb, Hill, LaFell, or Jeffery in my view. I’d expect 500 yards and 3 TDs the rest of the way.

    Coby Fleener, TE- Indianapolis could be home to the best junk time stats in the league this year, and Fleener could be a large beneficiary of that. He’s likely owned, but if not, go ahead and grab him as your #2.

    Arizona DST- Excellent matchup play. The key with them is that their counting stats (sacks, TOs) will be pretty good, and they also have a potentially dynamic kick return unit.

    Last week’s recommendations-
    QB- Jake Locker; Josh Freeman; Alex Smith
    RB- Jonathan Dwyer; Evan Royster; Daniel Thomas; Ronnie Brown
    WR- Kendall Wright; Brandon LaFell; Sidney Rice; Doug Baldwin; Steve Smith (StL)
    TE- Martellus Bennett
    (you may cut Doug Baldwin, Steve Smith, and the carcass formerly known as Ronnie Brown until further notice)

    Additional Week 2 Pick Ups-
    Knowshon Moreno, RB; Alshon Jeffery, WR; Andrew Hawkins, WR; Kyle Rudolph, TE

    Deep League Specials-
    Christian Ponder, QB; Russell Wilson, QB; Alex Green, RB; Dennis Pitta, TE

    Drop List-
    Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB
    Andy Dalton, QB
    DeAngelo Williams, RB
    Cedric Benson, RB
    Rashad Jennings, RB
    Isaac Redman, RB
    Greg Little, WR
    Mike Williams, WR
    Jon Baldwin, WR
    Dustin Keller, TE
    Bills DST
    Bengals DST

    Comments 18 Comments
    1. Rich Gapinski's Avatar
      Great article. Despite lack of burst seen, I'm not giving up on Ced in one league as a flex because of the revenge factor and that the Bears rush defense seemed vulnerable on Sunday. But, yeah, if he can't do it this week, he is gone.
    1. mkocs6's Avatar
      Great write-up, as usual.

      I'm thrilled I snagged Randall Cobb in the 13th Round, less thrilled that he plays Thursday this week when I might be looking to start him. I'm really deep at WR (Megatron, Steve Smith, Maclin--hip flexor, and Decker) and RB (Peterson, Murray, and Green-Ellis--very favorable matchup against Cleveland's run defense this week), so I almost have too many options for that flex spot. Good problem to have, I guess.

      No one immediately jumps into my head as an addition this week. I started to write up some sleeper defenses, but my home league is out of step with the mainstream on scoring defense stats. We have a very punitive system if you give up 28-34 (-7) or 35+ (-10) points, so it's probably too peculiar to be useful to people more broadly.
    1. Trumpetbdw's Avatar
      I'm mad because both Hill and Cobb were taken in my draft by someone not named me. Same with Brandon LaFell, Kendall Wright, and Jake Locker. Alfred Morris was picked up by a Skins fan who watched him against Indy just before the draft. He was scoffed by a few who had no idea who he was, then released him just prior to the start of the season for Josh Morgan. Oops.

      As for 1 Yard Ced, I whole-heartedly disagree. Part of it is that I'm in a PPR, but I haven't owned Ced since his 2nd year in Chicago. I just think he brings nothing to the table. I guess I missed out on a couple of decent seasons, but even then, he was more inconsistent on a week-to-week basis than anything.

      I'm done with Ced, and his 12 for 27 line on Thursday night won't dissuade me from that thought.
    1. Patrick Sullivan's Avatar
      Scrap the patience with Titus Young. He's useless.
    1. iwatt's Avatar
      Wes Welker.... painful to watch.
    1. Docta's Avatar
      I wouldn't give on Benson either. No RB does well against the Niners, and it's not like they're going to use any other RB with how little they run. Dropping players all depends on who you're getting to replace them. Dalton is still a fine QB2.

      On Welker, I'd bet that they're punishing him for his big drop in the SB and asking for more money than he's worth. Gotta show him that he's replaceable.
    1. Docta's Avatar
      I forgive him for sucking.

      I do i have 4 RT @CMike92: You don't have any rushing yards either RT @ChrisJohnson28 Look me n my face, I ain't got no worries
      I kno right smh RT @QCBari: @ChrisJohnson28 you have more dogs than you had rushing yards on Sunday
    1. Ragar's Avatar
      One thing to consider for the Packers is they lined up Cobb at the RB position for 20 of the 61 offensive plays, Cobb was lined up at WR on 18 other plays (38 of 61). Take the grain of salt being it was the Niners defense and the first half proved ruinning was not going to work, however there had been talk all of last year and this offseason of getting Cobb more into teh offense. You can probably expect a lot more touches for Cobb, especially in a PPR system where I would expect some screen passes also to Cobb out of the RB slot.

      (this should also limit Benson some, so unless you are using him as a bye week player, it is probably asking too much for him to conisistently produce numbers for you)
    1. Trumpetbdw's Avatar
      I just don't see Benson providing any real value at any point this season. He may give a decent performance or two, but no where near enough to justify him as anything more than a #4 back on your roster. Same with DeAngelo, in my opinion. So in that realm, I'd rather own Alex Green because I feel like if he ever gets into the lineup, he'd have more value since he can add a little something catching the ball out of the backfield.

      But as Docta pointed out, Randall Cobb is already playing some in the backfield.

      As for Dalton, I'm not sure he is a good #2. I have him lower than most anyway, but add in his limited upside, and I'd rather gamble on someone else. For example, I have Jake Locker rated 20th overall, and at this point, I'd probably move all of Mark Sanchez, Alex Smith, and even Russell Wilson ahead of him as well. That puts Dalton at 24, making him the lowest possible #2 in a 12 QB league. In other words, unless he proves me wrong, I won't be owning him at any point this season.

      My goal of this exercise is to not only give guys to add, but also to include the people I'd drop them for. So in general, I'd rather own all of my adds over all of my drops. Yes, I'd own Sanchez over Pickspatrick or Dalton. Yes I'd own Dwyer or Morris over Williams or Benson. Yes I'd own Stephen Hill or even Andrew Hawkins over Greg Little or Mike Williams.

      The only minor exception involves the deep leaguers. If I desperately needed a #2 QB, I'd rather Dalton or Fitzpatrick over Wilson or Ponder. I guess. But as a #3, I'd much rather gamble on the upside of Wilson or Ponder and leave Dalton and Fitzpatrick alone. At RB, whether I'd prefer Benson or Green would be solely based on my total depth at the position. With little depth, Benson is the smarter play, but if I have 4 solid options at RB, I'd rather Green as my #5 than Benson.
    1. packa7x's Avatar
      Benson's value will not come as a workhorse #1 or #2 back, but he will be valuable in terms of a "what the heck" flex. Alex Green may contribute more as far as a pass catcher, but he's been pretty useless thus far and hasn't shown much of anything.

      I'd also probably say hold on with Sanchez. He had a great game, yes. But this was the super-secret Jet offense. Now every team knows roughly what's coming and they wont be the Bills.
    1. Trumpetbdw's Avatar
      Quote Originally Posted by packa7x View Post
      Benson's value will not come as a workhorse #1 or #2 back, but he will be valuable in terms of a "what the heck" flex. Alex Green may contribute more as far as a pass catcher, but he's been pretty useless thus far and hasn't shown much of anything.

      I'd also probably say hold on with Sanchez. He had a great game, yes. But this was the super-secret Jet offense. Now every team knows roughly what's coming and they wont be the Bills.
      Thanks for the comments, packa. I certainly could be wrong about Benson, but I've felt this way about him for 3 years. Even last year, while his numbers looked ok, he was way too hit or miss to rely upon consistently. This year, hit or miss would be a kind way of stating his value. I think he'll be mostly miss. Sure, he could have a good week or two, but I trust myself in drafts to find much better options than him. I'd rather take a shot with David Wilson, Jonathan Dwyer, or even Mark Ingram than him, and I think Mark Ingram isn't that good. Just my preference, but it's clear that many disagree. That's ok. Just know that my opinion on Benson isn't based on last week. It's based on years of seeing that he's not that good, and trusting that GB is a smarter organization than Cincinnati in that they won't keep ramming him into the wall for much longer.

      For Sanchez, clearly I'm hoping that I'm not going to have to rely on him in any league. I'd put him at around 21 overall at the position at this point, with the appeal being that he has some pretty decent upside, and in fantasy terms, really wasn't all that terrible last year, finishing 10th overall. I do think there's room for improvement here. Would I put him ahead of Matt Schaub, Andrew Luck, Joe Flacco, Carson Palmer, or even Jake Locker? Absolutely not. Those guys are in my 16-20 range right now. But I think I'd put him on the same list as Alex Smith, which is ahead of Wilson, Fitzpatrick, Dalton, Cassell, and the others in that general range. And why doesn't he have a similar upside to Joe Flacco, for example?
    1. Trumpetbdw's Avatar
      Packers vs. Bears-

      Aaron Rodgers is the #1 QB this week. You're not benching him regardless.

      Jay Cutler should have a really nice game, as his new crop of receivers should give the Pack secondary major problems. I'd have Cutler in the #6-7 range this week, and would start him over guys like Matt Stafford, Peyton Manning, Phil Rivers, and Tony Romo.

      Matt Forte- Don't worry about Michael Bush. Last year Marion Barber was stealing goal line touches from him. That's not his game. His game is merely about being awesome, and he does very well at that. Start him with confidence, as you always would. He's a top 5 back this week.

      Michael Bush- As a flex play, he's as good a bet as any to score a TD.

      Brandon Marshall- #1 WR value this week. TD is likely.

      Alshon Jeffery- In that 30-35 range this week, so if you start 3 WR, he could very well in the mix.

      Randall Cobb and James Jones- With Jennings out, both of these guys should shine. Cobb in particular is a top 20 play this week.

      Jermichael Finley- If you have him, he's likely your best option, and is a decent bet for a score.

      Packers RBs- No need to further divulge into this. I don't care that Benson has motivation against his former team.

      Devin Hester and Earl Bennett- You probably weren't starting them anyway, but I think if a 3rd option over Forte and Marshall emerges, this is Jeffery's night over either of these two.

      Greg Jennings- Just a reminder. He's inactive.

      GB and CHI Defenses- GB may get a few sacks and a pick, but I'd try to avoid both defenses if possible.

      Rodgers throws for near 400 with 3 TDs, 1 each to Cobb, Jones, and Finley. Cutler tops 300 as well, finding Marshall for 2 scores. Forte tallies 150 total yards and 2 more scores as Chicago upsets GB in Lambeau 34-27.
    1. Trumpetbdw's Avatar
      In my haste, I forgot to include Jordy Nelson. Of course you start him if you own him, but it wouldn't surprise me at all if he ends up with less points this week than both Cobb and Jones. I think the latter 2 are better bets to score this week, since the Bears do a pretty good job of preventing the long ball against the Packers.
    1. Trumpetbdw's Avatar
      Yeah, those previous two posts by me have been an epic fail on my part, thus far. Please ignore everything I've stated. Ever.
    1. mikesteelnation1's Avatar
      Quote Originally Posted by Trumpetbdw View Post
      Yeah, those previous two posts by me have been an epic fail on my part, thus far. Please ignore everything I've stated. Ever.
      I'm so damn turned around.. at this point I have no idea what day or time it is.

      Just figured out there's an NFL game on tonight... Like NOW
    1. packa7x's Avatar
      Hahah trumpet, it's an opinion. If you told me Tim Masthay would have a TD pass to Tom Crabtree, I'd laugh at you.
    1. mkocs6's Avatar
      Quote Originally Posted by Trumpetbdw View Post
      Yeah, those previous two posts by me have been an epic fail on my part, thus far. Please ignore everything I've stated. Ever.
      I, too, thought Cutler and Cobb would have nice games tonight. Looks like I'll need to get bailed out this weekend.
    1. Trumpetbdw's Avatar
      GB defense has been absolutely incredible. I figured I was good as gold with Rodgers, Forte, and Gould all playing tonight.

      And of course, this was the highest over/under in Vegas, so clearly this game has not gone as expected.

      I've stated before that I hate prognosticating stats. I think I just proved why. I think I'll just stick with general blanket statements in the future.