• Council of the Learned 2012: Week Ten NFL Picks



    10th Week
    (Byes: Arizona, Cleveland, Green Bay, Washington)

    Thursday, Nov. 8

    Indianapolis at Jacksonville, 8:20 p.m- Okay, so the Colts will be missing their starting corners, their starting tight end, the #2 receiver, the original halfback, one of their rush linebackers and possibly will be without their best tackling linebacker. Away teams are 2-6 on Thursday Night. A.J. McCarron is supposed to start for Luck as a favor. Yep, Colts win. PICK: (IND 9-0)

    Sunday, Nov. 11

    Oakland at Baltimore, 1 p.m- The players voted this week that the worst three teams in the league are Oakland, Cleveland and Jacksonville. The results feel like that “Stars are Just Like Us” article from US Weekly. The Ravens can stumble into a victory in this one like they did last week. PICK: (BAL 9-0)

    Denver at Carolina, 1 p.m- SuperNoodle vs. Superman. If I had any artistic ability at all, I’d be making a drawing of Peyton Manning’s noodle arms snaking around Cam Newton; rendering him useless. Sort of like Doctor Octopus or something. Yes, yes, I know that Doc Oct was a Spiderman villain. Just go with the visual. PICK: (DEN 8-1)

    N.Y. Giants at Cincinnati, 1 p.m- The Giants on the road! The Giants on the road! Forget about talking about the Steelers from last Sunday; that game was more about how the Giants never play that well at home and the team had a much longer week from not going anywhere. The Steelers almost equaled Manning’s passing total with their pass interference yardage. PICK: (NYG 9-0)

    Tennessee at Miami, 1 p.m- The Miami-Indy game last week was some good proof that there is still something going on with Vegas and the NFL. How was it that the Pagano speech was talked about right as the games were beginning? There was no way Indy was losing that game after that; though Miami played their role well by leading for most of the contest until having their worst two drives of the game on their last two drives of the game. PICK: (MIA 9-0)

    Detroit at Minnesota, 1 p.m- Matt Stafford passing yards in the second quarter last week: 113. Christian Ponder passing yards in week 7 and week 9: 121 total, 87 net. Adrian Peterson cannot do it on his own. PICK: (MIN 5-4)

    Buffalo at New England, 1 p.m- It feels like this game happens four times a year. The Bills are lucky it doesn’t. Buffalo is showing signs of a team that doesn’t care about the scoreboard or situation anymore. Celebrations after plays when down. Bad play-calling. Bad play. Not good when the Bills still have a great shot at that last AFC spot. PICK: (NE 9-0)

    Atlanta at New Orleans, 1 p.m- The Saints playoff run story spliced with ending the undefeated season for Atlanta is just so easy that it has to happen, right? Also, I am sick of the stats that show weak schedules for 7-1, 8-0, 6-2 teams. A team that has played 8 games and played 8 opponents that have played 8 games will have a 1/8 effect on their own strength of schedule. That is 64 games. Minus 8 games is 56 games. 28-28 is .500. 28-36 is .438. There are so many flaws to almost all strength of schedule arguments. Remember when Denver was supposed to have the toughest sked in the league? Now people are talking about how easy it is. PICK: (ATL 9-0)- Writer's note: I was shocked at the 9-0 here.

    San Diego at Tampa Bay, 1 p.m- Tampa Bay is still in the top 12 in QB rating differential and just traded their best corner anyway. They are 4-4 and playing behind the strong running game and deep passing attack perfect for Vincent Jackson and Mike Williams. Tampa Bay may be making some noise. I know Norv will be gone soon, but this falling asleep on the sidelines stuff is just disrespectful. PICK: (TB 6-3)

    N.Y. Jets at Seattle, 4:05 p.m- Too much green and bright green in this game for me. Thank goodness that Seattle does not have a field that is the same color as that green. Rex Ryan was offended this week when he thought a reporter said “Over-weighted” when he was told that he was voted to be the most “Over-rated” coach. PICK: (SEA 8-1)

    Dallas at Philadelphia, 4:25 p.m- What is the highest over/under for turnovers in a game that Vegas has ever set? This would be the 0-0 game this week, but the offenses are so good at giving up six points to the defense that I couldn’t do it. It should be noted that this game was selected for the National Association of Bad Clock Management and Terrible Decision-Making 2012 Year End Bash. The fact that Jason Garrett and Andy Reid give generously to the NABCMTDM every season does make the event site seem a little contrived. PICK: (PHI 7-2)

    St. Louis at San Francisco, 4:25 p.m- Remember when people thought that the NFC West might be a close race this season? Unfortunately, the Rams and Seahawks have to play on the road and the Cardinals can’t block anything. PICK: (SF 9-0)

    Houston at Chicago, 8:20 p.m- The Bears are first in point differential at +116. The Texans are second at +100. The Chicago D/ST have allowed 8 touchdowns this season. The Chicago D/ST have scored 8 touchdowns this season. Will that be enough to make up for how bad Cutler and the offensive line will look against that defense? PICK: (CHI 5-4)

    Monday, Nov. 12

    Kansas City at Pittsburgh, 8:30 p.m- The Most Likely to Finish 0-0 Game of the Week. This is not a rip on Pittsburgh at all. They could not even show up to the game and it would finish 0-0 because the Chiefs can’t score. Every time the Chiefs try, Matt Cassell finds a new way to turn the ball over. Just watch what he comes up with when the only 11 guys on the field are his own. PICK: (PIT 9-0)

    LAST WEEK: 11-3
    SEASON: 82-50 (62.12%)

    Comments 15 Comments
    1. wxwax's Avatar
      Shame I got my picks in too late. I would have been the lone Jax vote. They gotta win sometime! Colts are definitely better than expected and Luck is special. But it's a divisional road game. Hopefully, it will be more exciting than most of us are anticipating.

      I don't give Buffalo much of a chance. This team seems to have developed a losing mentality. But this isn't the New England of old. They can be had. Another divisional matchup. Could we get a November Surprise?
    1. Trumpetbdw's Avatar
      I can't believe I'm this boring, but I don't believe I'm after the dash on any picks this week. What is this world coming to?

      I'm not surprised on the Atlanta pick. They're a boatload better than New Orleans. I actually think the 2 most likely upsets from the 9-0 games are Oakland over Baltimore and Buffalo over New England. No real rhyme or reason for either, just a hunch.

      I think Seattle is a lock, and Tampa is a near lock, especially with the whole Vincent Jackson vs. his former team dynamic.

      7 people (including me) are still stubbornly sticking with Philly this week? Interesting...
    1. biggittyb's Avatar
      It should have been much sooner for Norv traveling 3 time zones to be a punchline.
    1. ScottDCP's Avatar
      Baltimore
      Denver
      Giants
      Not Dolphins
      Detroit
      Buffalo
      Atalanta
      San Diego
      Seattle
      Dallas
      St. Louis
      Houston
      Kansas City

      And yes, I picked the Chiefs because I hate the Steelers.
    1. mkocs6's Avatar
      After the dash, as always, with Dallas.
    1. xmenehune's Avatar
      I would nominate both DET & KC HCs for inclusion into the NABCMTDM, I wonder if an association for GM's should be considered? ha ha!
    1. wxwax's Avatar
      Quote Originally Posted by Trumpetbdw View Post
      I think Seattle is a lock, and Tampa is a near lock, especially with the whole Vincent Jackson vs. his former team dynamic.
      It's interesting that Seattle, Miami and Tampa -- three teams getting no respect in the pre-season -- are favored this weekend.
    1. mkocs6's Avatar
      Quote Originally Posted by wxwax View Post
      It's interesting that Seattle, Miami and Tampa -- three teams getting no respect in the pre-season -- are favored this weekend.
      Well... they all look decent (of late, especially), but more importantly are all playing really bad teams at home, who are a combined 3-7 over the last four weeks.

      Since the Titans' and the Jets' close wins against Pittsburgh and Indianapolis in Week 6, neither has won a game and have both looked dreadful. The only win for any of the three since then was San Diego's victory over Kansas City last week, but gamblers have to remember their meltdown against Denver and their 7-6 loss to the Browns.
    1. Pruitt's Avatar
      I differ on the Houston and the Dallas games.

      And I simply can not believe that the Pats are favored by 11. If I was in Vegas, I'd put my house keys down on this one.

      The team is only halfway through its schedule and everything about them - from starting QB to Coach to GM screams "lame duck." And they have Haynesworth 2.0 leading the defense. This one smells awful.
    1. BuckeyeRidley's Avatar
      Here Goes:

      CIN>NYG
      TEN>MIA
      DET<MIN
      BUF<NE
      ATL<NO
      SD>TB
      DEN>CAR
      OAK>BAL
      NYJ<SEA
      DAL<PHI
      STL>SF
      HOU<CHI
      KC>PIT
    1. ScottDCP's Avatar
      Quote Originally Posted by ScottDCP View Post
      St. Louis
      Didn't see that one coming.
    1. wxwax's Avatar
      Quote Originally Posted by ScottDCP View Post
      Didn't see that one coming.
      *golf clap*
    1. ScottDCP's Avatar
      Thanks. I don't know that anybody has balls enough to predict a tie. And I really thought Zeuerlein and Fisher together had balls enough to make a 58 yarder in OT.
    1. BuckeyeRidley's Avatar
      Quote Originally Posted by BuckeyeRidley View Post
      Here Goes:

      CIN>NYG
      TEN>MIA
      DET<MIN
      BUF<NE
      ATL<NO
      SD>TB
      DEN>CAR
      OAK>BAL
      NYJ<SEA
      DAL<PHI
      STL>SF
      HOU<CHI
      KC>PIT
      I'm feelin' Smooth after callin' Ws for CIN, NO & STL [even though it was a tie]. SEA winning over NYJ is not surprising. They did it to BAL & My Eagles last year; gives Props to them in their Pete Carroll era with these home games.
    1. wxwax's Avatar
      The Jets did their best to rattle the young QB Wilson and for a long while it was working. The young man made poor decisions and coughed up the ball. But Seattle has a running game and that straightened things out.
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