• Council of the Learned 2012: Week Eleven NFL Picks



    11th Week

    (Byes: Minnesota, N.Y. Giants, Seattle, Tennessee)

    Thursday, Nov. 15

    Miami at Buffalo, 8:20 p.m- The Dolphins ran into a buzzsaw last week after Bud Adams threatened the lives of the entire coaching staff. Also, Ryan Tannehill threw the ball like he was drinking all night after the Aggies win over Bama. PICK: (BUF 4-3)

    Sunday, Nov. 18

    Arizona at Atlanta, 1 p.m- Everyone seems surprised when I tell them that the Falcons are a paper lion until I see something in the playoffs or I see them get one single yard on the ground when they need it. I’ll re-do the rankings in a week or so, but Atlanta was 31st in first downs per rush two weeks ago. They might be last now. PICK: (ATL 7-0)

    Tampa Bay at Carolina, 1 p.m- Carolina fans, can you tell me what Cam Newton is doing well at this point? He ran into sacks versus Denver instead of away from them. The Bucs were thankful that the Chargers stink and Norv Turner is now asking reporters to decide whether or not a loss is acceptable. Word has it that Mike Silver will get an offer to run 7 on 7 drills this week. Is that A.J. Smith in a bell tower? Don’t accept the offer, Mike! Don’t accept the offer. PICK: (TB 6-1)

    Cleveland at Dallas, 1 p.m- For about one play, it looked like the Cowboys would lose to Nick Foles. Now they get to face the older, wiser version of Nick Foles without the hair. In an effort to make the game watchable; Pat Shurmur and Jason Garrett will be able to coach together when the teams are on offense. The Browns will lose when Shurmur ices his own kicker; causing Garrett to guffaw before he is reminded that he once did it himself. PICK: (DAL 6-1)

    Green Bay at Detroit, 1 p.m- The Lions are not a good football team. PICK: (GB 6-1)

    Jacksonville at Houston, 1 p.m- In an effort to appease the safety junkies next year, Roger Goodell will make the Jags play every team in the league once; sometimes with an “A” team and a “B” team playing in two different cities. The Jags games on the schedule will be referred to as each team’s second bye week on the official 2013 NFL schedule. PICK: (HOU 7-0)

    Cincinnati at Kansas City, 1 p.m- This stat is so good that I had to steal it from ESPN. The Chiefs have gone 407 games since a quarterback they drafted has won a game for them. The last quarterback was Todd Blackledge; who was one of the disappointments of the 1983 class. The ten quarterbacks drafted to not win a game: Ricky Stanzi, Brodie Croyle, James Kilian, Pat Barnes, Steve Stenstrom, Steve Matthews, Matt Blundin (2nd rd, 2-9, 15 yards, 2 INT in career), Mike Elkins (2nd rd, 1-2, 5 yds, INT in career), Danny McManus, and Doug Hudson. PICK: (CIN 6-1)

    Indianapolis at New England, 1 p.m- There may be some points scored in this game. Amazingly, the Pats have thrown for 18 touchdowns while giving up 19 in the air. Serious question: Are the Colts as happy or happier about their future as the Broncos are about their present? PICK: (NE 6-1)

    N.Y. Jets at St. Louis, 1 p.m- Clearly, because of the tie last week by one team playing in this game, this one is the Most Likely to Finish 0-0 Game of the Week. The Rams are tough at home and Mark Sanchez is terrible. Since entering the league, Mark Sanchez has completed 50% or fewer of his passes in 16 of his 55 games played. He had five in 2009, four in 2010, only two last year and now already has five this season. Tim Tebow managed eleven such games last year if the playoffs are included. Sorry, Jets, the answer at quarterback is not on your team right now. PICK: (STL 6-1)

    Philadelphia at Washington, 1 p.m- Which offensive line will be better at NOT providing airport landing lights that lead directly to their own quarterback? I have no idea, but the league might want to allow RGIII and Foles to throw behind portable bunkers. At least then they would have a chance. PICK: (WAS 4-3)

    New Orleans at Oakland, 4:05 p.m- If Joe Flacco can throw for a ton of yards and account for four touchdowns against the Oakland defense, what can Drew Brees do? I know Brees is not great outdoors, but the Raiders now have Michael Huff attempting to play corner. Their nickel back is Joselio Hanson. PICK: (NO 5-2)

    San Diego at Denver, 4:25 p.m- I’ve got nothing interesting here. The Denver defense is getting better and better and Peyton’s Eff You season continues. Manning is on pace for around 40 touchdowns and 4,800+ yards. PICK: (DEN 7-0)

    Baltimore at Pittsburgh-x, 8:20 p.m- The Big Ben injury could not have happened at a worse time for the Steelers who have to play this game against Baltimore again on December 2nd. The defense has been playing well and will have to step up again. PICK: (BAL 5-2)

    Monday, Nov. 19

    Chicago at San Francisco, 8:30 p.m- There hasn’t been a quarterback match-up this good in the series since Cody Pickett faced Kyle Orton in 2005. The Bears have not won in San Francisco since the 1985 Super Bowl season, losing the last seven times by an average score of 34-6. The Bears haven’t scored more than 15 points in those games and have been shutout three times. The Bay Area is not kind to the Chicago club. PICK: CHI 4-3)

    LAST WEEK: 8-5-1
    SEASON: 90-55-1 (61.98%)

    Comments 8 Comments
    1. ScottDCP's Avatar
      Buffalo
      Atlanta
      Tampa
      Chicago
      Houston
      San Diego
      Baltimore
      Oakland
      Washington
      Patriots
      Jets
      Bengals
      Green Bay
      Dallas
    1. wxwax's Avatar
      The trick -- an impossible one, really -- is figuring out which divisional games will have an upset. You have to count on one or two, at least. In the Survivor pool, I'm reduced to picking a road team, because divisional games are so dangerous.

      Every time I see a QB with a concussion, I flash back to Chris Miller. Better to hold them back, even tho they're so important. If the two teams are sensible, it could make for an ugly game on Monday night.

      The Falcons aren't really a 8-1 team and their ground game is really weak. Not sure I'd go along with paper tiger, just because Matt Ryan and those receivers have found the firewater and are drinking deeply.
    1. Trumpetbdw's Avatar
      ATD-

      Carolina- just have a feeling the home dog steps up.

      Cleveland- just because Dallas should never be a unanimous selection.

      NY Jets- again, Stl should never be a unanimous choice.

      Oakland- we seem to have forgotten the Saints aren't that good. Oak will remind us of that.

      Pittsburgh- defense and running game will step up.

      I stand by my Chicago pick if Kaepernick plays for SF.
    1. ScottDCP's Avatar
      I am going to adjust my Chicago pick if Cutler is out. I like Kapaernick better than Campbell, and I think Chicago will lose.
    1. biggittyb's Avatar
      It's going to be interesting to see how Peyton fares playing outdoors in late November for the first time in 2 years, even if its versus Norv.
    1. Curtis's Avatar
      Quote Originally Posted by biggittyb View Post
      It's going to be interesting to see how Peyton fares playing outdoors in late November for the first time in 2 years, even if its versus Norv.
      He supposedly struggles in weather 40 degrees and below. It will be about 60 degrees in Denver Sunday. Next week when he comes here to Kansas City, it is forecast to be about 56. It's unseasonably warm here in the midwest. I've been wearing shorts almost every day this month.
    1. wxwax's Avatar
      Quote Originally Posted by biggittyb View Post
      It's going to be interesting to see how Peyton fares playing outdoors in late November for the first time in 2 years, even if its versus Norv.
      Forecast is for a balmy 59 degrees. Weather's not going to be a factor. Surprisingly, the average high in Denver in December is in the 40's, so it typically doesn't get super cold. Me, I think the Peyton outdoors thing is a non-story.

      I can't see picking Oakland. NOLA is indeed a mediocre team. But Oakland is just awful. They're at home and this is the NFL, so anything could happen. But with NOLA feeling more confident of late, I like their chances.

      I reckon the MNF game will be a bad one. Campbell is poor and Copernicus has a lot to prove. 7-3. Or maybe, 7-2.
    1. BuckeyeRidley's Avatar
      Ari<atl
      cle<dal
      gb>det
      cin>kc
      nyj<stl
      phi>was
      tb<car
      jac<hou
      no<oak
      sd<den
      ind>ne
      bal<pit
      chi>sf
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