Council of the Learned 2012: Week Twelve NFL Picks

Houston
Dallas
New England
Minnesota
Oakland
Cleveland
Buffalo
Tennessee
Denver
Miami
Atlanta
Baltimore
St Louis
New Orleans
Green Bay
Philly

I am shocked by some of these picks this week.

ATD-

Detroit over Houston. Detroit is by far and away the more desperate team, they're used to the short Thanksgiving turnaround, and have been very good against the run. Underreported fact is that Houston, while they run a lot, have not been nearly as efficient running the ball this year. Arian Foster is only averaging 3.8 YPC, and really struggled last week vs. Jacksonville.

Minnesota over Chicago. Adrian Peterson averages 100+ and 1.5 TDs vs. Chicago in his career. If Cutler plays, I can see a Chicago rebound, but the continued possibility that Jason Campbell gets the start gives me enough pause to take Minnesota. The Bears aren't beating anyone with Jason Campbell.

Pittsburgh over Cleveland. So other than the Steelers guys, you're all on the Browns? Charlie Batch is a better fit for this offense than Leftwich. Plus, Pat Shurmur is still the HC in Cleveland, right? Pittsburgh certainly isn't winning a Super Bowl without Roethlisberger, but everyone needs to relax. They'll be fine.

San Diego over Baltimore. Beating the Steelers, traveling cross country, then coming back to face the Steelers again makes this a trap game for Baltimore. Plus, Flaccid is a 50% passer on the road.

St. Louis over Arizona. I'm ATD on this game? 5 people are riding Ryan Lindley and a returning Beanie Wells?

New Orleans over San Francisco. I think everyone is overreacting to what they saw from SF last week. Kaepernick looks fantastic, and is the wild card for this teams' future, but he's now going on the road against a team with the firepower to score. In NO, anyone picking SF and Kaepernick, who I'll remind is making only his 2nd start, has to be expecting 31+ points. I can't buy that.

New York over Green Bay. The Giants at home in yet another 'nobody believes in us' game with an extra week to prepare. I like the Giants in a shootout.


Sidebar- I picked Tampa, but am shocked that we're 8-1 on that game. But Matt Berry on espn shared an interesting stat. While Atl has been excellent against the pass this year, they are the 2nd worst in completion% allowed outside the numbers, and have given up the 6th most amount of big plays outside the numbers. Tampa, meanwhile, is one of only 2 teams to have 2 WRs both in the top 20 in targets outside the numbers. Combined with Atlanta's poor numbers against the run, there's a lot to like about Tampa this week.

And while I officially picked Carolina, the fact is, when Carolina and Philly meet on Monday night, we all lose. All we can hope for is some epic game-management magic from Ron Rivera and Andy Reid. If all goes well, we could have our first ever post game dual firing.

I was ATD on Miami (Seattle is just not that good away from home, and Miami is due) and Philly (I don't think they'll lose every game, and Carolina is one they might win by accident).

There were a couple games this week that felt a little too difficult to call.

Minnesota at Chicago- I'm still not sure if Minnesota is legitimately good this season or not. Part of me feels like they've mostly been the beneficiary of playing some soft teams in the first half of the season, save for San Francisco who seems to be taht good team that has a bad game. Chicago's offense has been ranging anywhere from underwhelming to terrible, and while I don't expect Chicago's defense to lay another egg again this weekend, I also don't believe the trend of uber dominance they've displayed for the most part this season can continue. Ultimately I went with Chicago, but I wouldn't be surprised if Minnesota pulled it out.

Pittsburgh at Cleveland- I chose Pittsburgh based purely on history, but I'm close to changing my pick to The Factory of Sadness. Cleveland is one of those teams who have a tendency to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, and the Steelers are one of the most mentally tough teams in the NFL.

St. Louis at Arizona- Two teams battling for mediocrity. I took St. Louis because Sam Bradford is better than anyone on AZ's roster, and he's banging a Victorias Secret model, but Arizona's defense is pretty stout and they're playing at home.

Green Bay at NY Giants- The Giants are coming off a bye week and are eager to rinse the bad taste of their last game out of their mouths, and the Packers are beat up. I know the Packers sacked Matt Stafford 5 times last weekend without Clay Matthews, but I'm not sure if that's a one game wonder, or if Capers has found a way to be creative with the guys he has. I don't expect the Giants to respect the Packers run game, because, what run game? I also think the Giants will be able to bring pressure rushing only 3 or 4, which is going to neutralize the Packers passing attack. I think this will be a close one with the nod ultimately going to New York.

I'm surprised that Cleveland is so heavily favored. I picked them too. But Pitt has always fought hard when given a crappy QB. I'd a thunk a few might have been swayed by that.

Miami-Seattle is a complete toss-up.

I guess everyone who picked Chicago is convinced that Cutler will play. If he doesn't, Minnesota is an easy pick. I believe I'm the one who took them, can't remember tho.

I'm sure it seems like the Falcons haven't had a consistently good team in forever. But in fact, they have. Playoff appearances in 2008, 2010 and 2011. Conference championship game in 2004. Second round of playoffs in 2002, beating Green Bay at Lambeau. Super Bowl in 1998. They're undone by their inconsistency, usually flailing after each playoff year. But this lightly-regarded franchise has actually seen quite a bit of playoff football.

Originally Posted by wxwax

I guess everyone who picked Chicago is convinced that Cutler will play. If he doesn't, Minnesota is an easy pick. I believe I'm the one who took them, can't remember tho.

Cutler is playing. If he doesn't, you can just put me on the short list for a new liver. I can't go through another year like last ones.

I'm after the dash with St. Louis only. I'm with Trumpet and Wax in that I'm surprised we broke so decisively in favor of Cleveland and Tampa Bay. People just aren't buying what the Falcons are selling.

With respect to Trumpet, even if Charlie Batch is a better fit for Pittsburgh than Leftwich, he's still just Charlie Batch. Cleveland have outplayed each of its last five opponents, and should have at least three more wins than they do on the season. They get their rivals at home for the first game they'll play all season with their real defense. The offense--and it does have talent, if you haven't seen them--has yet to put together a complete game, and I think this might be the moment.

6, I will give you credit for unquenchable optimism re: the Browns. Is your middle name Pollyanne? (I picked them too.)

Originally Posted by iwatt

Cutler is playing. If he doesn't, you can just put me on the short list for a new liver. I can't go through another year like last ones.

I hope it's not too soon. I can't forget how Chris Miller ended his career. Or Staubach.

Originally Posted by mkocs6

They get their rivals at home for the first game they'll play all season with their real defense. The offense--and it does have talent, if you haven't seen them--has yet to put together a complete game, and I think this might be the moment.

All true. MY Rebbuttals are simple:

1) Pat Shurmur vs Mike Tomlin.
2) Dick Jauron vs Todd Haley

Those might not be as unevenhanded, but the real reason:

3) Brad Childress vs Dick Lebau.

God hates Cleveland...

Originally Posted by wxwax

6, I will give you credit for unquenchable optimism re: the Browns. Is your middle name Pollyanne? (I picked them too.)

You think this is optimism? I just display the kind of confidence that seems appropriate when things are going very badly.

Originally Posted by iwatt

All true. MY Rebbuttals are simple:

1) Pat Shurmur vs Mike Tomlin.
2) Dick Jauron vs Todd Haley

Those might not be as unevenhanded, but the real reason:

3) Brad Childress vs Dick Lebau.

God hates Cleveland...

...to be fair, I think Jauron versus Haley is kind of a wash. Your other points are well-taken, though.

Originally Posted by mkocs6

You think this is optimism? I just display the kind of confidence that seems appropriate when things are going very badly.

I sure do! Most supporters of a 2-8 team on a two-game losing streak don't speak in such positive terms about their prospects.

My disagreements are with the Arizona, Tampa and Indy picks.

I also wonder about the Bears...

I would like to jump on the Brownwagon. Charlie Batch couldn't beat out Byron Leftwich. Antonio Brown isn't playing. The Browns D-ine looks frisky these days. God may hate Cleveland, but the set up to this game reminds me of 2009 when a reeling Steelers team lost in Cleveland late in the year.

I've picked Washington most weeks this year, then choose this week to go against them?

Although I'm still taking credit for my Detroit pick.

That Lions/Texans game was one of the most fun games I've seen in recent memory..

Is it my eyes or is MIA underreporting on inj's especially with D players? There front 7 are not as fierce as earlier in the season, specifically Soliai I believe is injured. I know SEA doesn't play as well on the road, so even if MIA is "due" for a win @home, SEA is also "due" for a road win.

ATL may be w/o CB Samuel, TB is looking better and better

CLE should've won last wk @DAL, so maybe that's why a home game vs PIT looks like win, as they'll be UP and PIT is w/o Big Ben

If Cutler starts, CHI has a good chance of winning, w/o Cutler, MIN should be able to control the game

GB @NYG, I'm thinking NYG only because it's that time of the year, when NYG starts to bring it together. GB D looks vulnerable, if they hold up, GB gets the win.

I wonder if SF will be so hot, two games in a row, on the road? NO D has 2ndary issues, but with Vilma and Lofton now playing together for a month, SF run O should have a tougher time.

You Panther fans should be thankful that no one will be talking about your team at all this week. Not about Cam’s awfulness or Rivera’s world of suck. Not at all. Eagles fans should be thankful that their offensive line will be just fine when the players are healthy again. PICK: (CAR 6-3)

I am so sorry that the rest of America has to be exposed to the hulking big vat of ugly that is the Carolina Panthers. The good news is that the Panthers are 10-16 overall in prime time games, which means they don't suck any more in prime time than they do on a normal Sunday afternoon.

The Panthers play such uninspired football that at this point, I don't think it even matters that the Eagles suck too.

Gobble! Gobble!

HOU<DET
WAS<DAL
NE>NYJ
MIN<CHI
OAK>CIN
PIT<CLE
BUF<IND
DEN>KC
SEA>MIA
ATL>TB
TEN>JAX
BAL<SD
SF<NO
STL>ARI
GB>NYG
CAR<PHI