• Playoff Scenarios For Week 16

    by
    Andy Freeland
    Published on 12-18-2012 04:59 PM
    11 Comments Comments


    Rather than scenarios for each team, I'll try to put the overall picture into something that (hopefully) resembles English. Just looking at teams, not seeding.

    6 Divisions have been clinched: Patriots, Texans, Broncos, Packers and Falcons.

    AFC North
    The Ravens will win the North unless they lose out (Giants, @Bengals) and the Bengals win out (@Steelers, Ravens).

    NFC West
    Same as above. The Niners win unless they lose their last 2 (@Seahawks, Cardinals) and the Seahawks win their last 2 (49ers, Rams).

    NFC East
    Giants cannot win the division on a tie breaker because of their 3 division losses, therefore they can only take the division if they win out and the Cowboys and Redskins (who play each other in week 17) each lose a game. If that doesn't happen, then the winner of that week 17 game at Washington wins the division no matter what (so if the Giants lose either of their last 2 games, the Cowboys and Redskins week 16 games are completely meaningless).

    AFC Wildcards
    There are only 3 teams left: Colts, Bengals and Steelers. Technically it could be any 2 of the 3, but realistically it's going to be the Colts and the winner of the Bengals @ Steelers.

    The Colts haven't clinched, but I'm a little shaky on how they could miss the playoffs. I think the only way it could happen is if they lose their last 2 (@Chiefs, Texans), the Steelers win their last 2 (including week 16 vs Bengals), the Bengals beat the Ravens and the Bengals make up 3 games in strength of victory.

    If the Bengals win in Pittsburgh this week, the Steelers are out and the 6 AFC teams are set. If the Steelers win, they are in with either a win (Browns) or a Bengals loss (Ravens). The Bengals could lose this week and still get in with a week 17 win and either a Steelers loss or the above scenario where the Colts don't make it.

    NFC Wildcards
    There are currently 22 NFC teams with 8-6 records. If you can figure it out, let me know.

    Comments 11 Comments
    1. Andy Freeland's Avatar
      I should probably add that the Dolphins are technically alive. They would need a 3-way tie with the Bengals and Steelers and then they could win some tiebreaker.
      Reply
    1. Trumpetbdw's Avatar
      Technicalities...

      The Dolphins still have an outside shot, if they win out, the Bengals lose out, the Steelers lose to the Browns, and the Jets lose at least 1 of their last 2.

      Also, If the Ravens lose out, and the Steelers win out, the Steelers would be AFCN champs.
      Reply
    1. Andy Freeland's Avatar
      Quote Originally Posted by Trumpetbdw View Post
      Also, If the Ravens lose out, and the Steelers win out, the Steelers would be AFCN champs.
      I'm not seeing that. They would both be 9-7. Tie breakers:
      1. head to head: tied 1-1.
      2. division: tied 4-2.
      3. common games: tied 7-5.
      4. Conference: Ravens win 8-4 to 6-6.

      Am I missing something?
      Reply
    1. Andy Freeland's Avatar
      Quote Originally Posted by Trumpetbdw View Post
      Technicalities...

      The Dolphins still have an outside shot, if they win out, the Bengals lose out, the Steelers lose to the Browns, and the Jets lose at least 1 of their last 2.

      Also, If the Ravens lose out, and the Steelers win out, the Steelers would be AFCN champs.
      Quote Originally Posted by Andy Freeland View Post
      I'm not seeing that. They would both be 9-7. Tie breakers:
      1. head to head: tied 1-1.
      2. division: tied 4-2.
      3. common games: tied 7-5.
      4. Conference: Ravens win 8-4 to 6-6.

      Am I missing something?
      Yes I am. It would be a 3-way tie, therefore the top tie breaker would be head to head record among all 3. The Steelers would be 3-1, Ravens 2-2, Bengals 1-3.
      Reply
    1. hobbes27's Avatar
      Okay, another technicality here. Five divisions have been clinched, not six, Andy.

      Here are the tiebreaking procedures for those that care:

      http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakingprocedures

      I think Indy would not make the playoffs if it loses out, Pittsburgh wins out, Cincinatti beats Baltimore, due to tiebreaker #5, strength of victory for both Steelers and Bengals. But I haven't figured that out.
      Reply
    1. wxwax's Avatar
      Quite remarkable that two rookie QB's, selected one and two in the draft, have lifted their respective woeful teams into playoff contention in their first season.

      I hope the 'Skins win at Philly. I mean, obviously, doh! But also because a rivalry that's been limp for too long will roar into life at FedEx on the regular season's final weekend. Holy cow will that place be jumping!
      Reply
    1. darvon's Avatar
      I am rooting for the Skins.

      Is Oakland still in the mix for Wildcard?

      In the NFC.

      Seattle and SF are IN (by my crystal ball)
      Minn is IN and Peterson gets the record.
      Reply
    1. darvon's Avatar
      Also, the Jets could be IN the playoffs.

      I believe the ancient Mayans wrote about this.
      Reply
    1. wxwax's Avatar
      Quote Originally Posted by darvon View Post
      Also, the Jets could be IN the playoffs.

      I believe the ancient Mayans wrote about this.
      It's a tribute to Mayan engineers that 400 years later we're still using their basic design for the jet engine.
      Reply
    1. hobbes27's Avatar
      Quote Originally Posted by darvon View Post
      Also, the Jets could be IN the playoffs.

      I believe the ancient Mayans wrote about this.
      How? By buying tickets to playoff games?
      Reply
    1. wxwax's Avatar
      Quote Originally Posted by hobbes27 View Post
      How? By buying tickets to playoff games?
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      Reply