• 2012 FP Upset Special Challenge: Week #19 Divisional Playoffs

    2012 FP Upset Special Challenge: Week #19 Divisional Playoffs



    Four more playoff games will be played this weekend. The last time during the 2012 season that so many games are available to us. By Sunday evening, we'll be down to four teams and two remaining games prior to Super Bowl XLVII in New Orleans.

    With a win riding No Upsets last week, brauneyz has a 1 game lead over Colts01 and Pruitt and 2 games over Raven, Trumpetbdw, DaBearsFan and jhinkamp.

    Current standings.

    Last weeks results.

    Season to date.

    Now on to Week #19 of the FP Upset Special Challenge. Let's get busy.

    You can join us every week. You can join mid-season. If you miss a week, so what? Come back next week. We're just glad you're here and you'll always have me to talk to down at the bottom of the standings.

    Rules:

    • One pick per week
    • Your chosen team must be at least a (+3) underdog I have suspended the 3 point rule for the playoffs to ensure we get as many of the games as possible. (Only games listed in this column are eligible)
    • Your chosen team must win the game outright (no 'pushes' or 'covers')
    • Season winner is the one with the most upsets correctly chosen between Week #1 through the Conference Championship Games (20 weeks all together)
    • There will be a points system to determine a winner in the event of a tie
    • Points will be accumulated by adding the game spreads for your correct picks (if you take Carolina (+4.5) and Carolina wins, you will be awarded a win and 4.5 points). Be careful making picks based on the number of points possible. Points only count if you are tied for the total wins lead when the whole contest is finished.
    • The No Upsets Option: Predict correctly that 'No Upsets' will occur in any given week and you will be awarded one win and a point total equal to the sum of all the spreads in that week's Upset Special. If you wish to exercise the 'No Upsets' Option, that prediction is due by 5 minutes prior to kickoff of the first game of the week in question. This includes Thursday Night Football and Saturday Playoff games. The 'No Upsets' option is confined to the Upset Possibilities listed in this article.
    • The All Upsets Option: Re-introduced for the playoffs, it is what it sounds like. Scoring is the same as that used for 'No Upsets'. Also like 'No Upsets', the pick must be made at least 5 minutes before the first game begins.
    • Picks are due no later than 5 minutes before the scheduled start of the broadcast time for your game. The FootballPros.com time stamp on your post is gospel.
    • Spread lines will be posted Wednesday and will remain static throughout the week. This isn't The Sports Book at Caesar's Palace, after all.


    Prizes to be determined but may include a cool icon denoting your status as *ahem* Upset Special Top Dog, a hat or t-shirt or possibly tickets to the Super Bowl (NOT!!)

    Week #19 Upset Special Possibilities (odds by OddsShark). Underdogs in bold.

    Saturday Games

    • Ravens (+8.5) @ Broncos
    • Packers (+2.5) @ 49ers


    Sunday Games

    • Seahawks (+2.5) @ Falcons
    • Texans (+9) @ Patriots


    Dave's Week #19 Upset Special:

    While the NFC games appear more likely to be competitive to this observer, not everyone will agree. Some (not brauneyz!) will swing for the fences and go All or No Upsets.

    Either way, my course was preordained, give me the Packers!

    Comments 30 Comments
    1. StarvinMarvin's Avatar
      Seahawks. The Force is strong with this one.
    1. mikesteelnation1's Avatar
      Ravens. Until manning wins some cold outdoor playoff games, I have no faith. Quite different environment to throw the ball, than a 72 degree dome.
    1. wxwax's Avatar
      In 13 regular season games where the temperature was 21 to 40 degrees fahrenheit, Manning had a quarterback rating of 94.5. That's little different from his 95.7 quarterback rating in games overall. Manning's completion percentage in these games was 64.7 and he threw for an average of 8.0 yards per attempt. That's on par with the 65.2% completion percentage in all games and 7.6 yards per attempt.

      Did I mention that he had 23 touchdowns and only 13 interceptions in these cold games? In fact, even in the one game he played below 20 degrees, he still was 14 for 18 on pass attempts.
      http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/2013...s-cold-weather
    1. edave's Avatar
      I'm kinda torn on the weather question for Manning.

      It's Denver. You know what they call a forecast of 16 with snow flurries in January? A pretty nice day. He lives there now. That said, they've had really mild weather for their most recent home games so we haven't seen him play a winter game yet.

      2012-12-02
      Buccaneers
      64° F

      2012-12-23
      Browns
      51° F

      2012-12-30
      Chiefs
      35° F

      The Ravens won't find the cold too debilitating either, but in combination with the altitude? We'll have to see.
    1. wxwax's Avatar
      Just read that Manning's been wearing a glove on his throwing hand for the last month, including his last two games.

      Manning's completion percentage was 5.8 points higher and his passer rating was 19.2 points better with the glove than without. (Small reminder: The opponents in those two games finished a combined 7-25.) Some observers, quick in the past to point out that Manning's passes have often flown with a bit of a wobble, have noticed less of that since he donned the glove.
      But really, isn't the issue here Baltimore? Hands up anyone who thinks they didn't shoot their wad last week.



      ps Denver climate is pretty mild all year round, including January.

      http://www.denver.org/metro/weather
    1. mkocs6's Avatar
      Give me the Seabastards.

      I will also predict that if the Broncos win or lose, the weather is going to have nothing to do with it.
    1. BuckeyeRidley's Avatar
      Seahawks.
    1. FrzzerBwler's Avatar
      GBay. Had to go Canadian and add an 'ay to make the program happy.
      Does this mean I should buy some Moosehead or Molson for the game?

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    1. edave's Avatar
      Week 19 is in the books, final points:



      Congratulations to iwatt, KabaModernFan, mikesteelnation1, Raven and vancemeek for winning the week with the Ravens.

      With the wins, Raven has joined the group at 10 wins (Colts01 and Pruitt) and mikesteelnation1 has joined the group at 9 (Trumpetbdw, DaBearsFan and jhinkamp). brauneyz remains our leader with 11 wins heading into our last week.

      See you next week for the Conference championships.

      Full standings

      The complete season to date.
    1. wxwax's Avatar
      Amy told uz zo. I shulda lisuned to har.
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