Council of the Learned 2012: Conference Championships

Did I vote on this one? I honestly can't remember if I did, much less who I picked.

I voted for SF. But it would be funny if Atlanta won the next two games. That would make a perfecta season: un-respected and underrated for 19 games in a row. That would be some kind of record in the ol' chip-on-the-shoulder department.

I happened to watch Kurt Warner's analysis of Peyton Manning's arm in the Baltimore game. With video examples, he concluded that there was no lack of zip on the ball. IOW, the old boy's arm was fine. Mr. Peyton is caught between two moving forces. On the one hand, debilitating age. On the other, his nerves healing over time. I wonder where the boundary between those two forces will be next season? Will he be better, worse or the same?

Warner also had some interesting observations about the advantage the Falcons' passing game gives them:

“They run a lot of three-wide receiver sets in Atlanta, “Warner said. “When you do that, (49ers cornerback) Carlos Rogers, the best cover guy, goes inside. That’s when I think you can attack on the outside with either one of your big-time receivers.

“The other thing San Francisco does is they love to attack the line of scrimmage with their safeties. If you can throw one of those guys in front of a safety then (you can) use a guy like Julio Jones to get behind those safeties.

“Those are the two ways you have to attack the 49ers’ defensive secondary, but you have to protect first and that’s going to be a key.”

I watched some of the NFL Network's replay of GB-SF and you guys were right. SF often gave Favre time to throw. If they do the same in Atlanta, it's going to be critical. Ryan's pretty good when he can breathe.

For the public record, my votes were for Atlanta and New England this week. I think the Falcons are going to be the first ever #1 seed to ride "Nobody Believes in Us!" all the way to the Super Bowl.

Also, CAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAASE!!!!! *Shakes fist at sky*

Unless Copernicus gets injured and Alex Smith comes in relief (Bledsoe recreation complete) the Falcons have a shot.

I'm done betting against Ray Lewis. I was done last year

Unless Copernicus gets injured and Alex Smith comes in relief (Bledsoe recreation complete) the Falcons have a shot.

I'm done betting against Ray Lewis. I was done last year

I've got San Francisco and Baltimore.

It seems that many are kind of overlooking the Falcons, especially Vegas, since the #1 seed is a 4.5 Home dog. That usually means one of two things. Either Atlanta isn't getting their proper respect, and will beat SF, or SF is just that much better than Atlanta. I believe the latter.

Atlanta is exactly who I thought they were coming into the season. I thought they were a team ready for a breakout, and the responded by posting the best record in the league. Matt Ryan turned himself into a legitimate MVP candidate (in any other year, at least). I had them going to the NFC Title game then, and I had their road ending at that spot. I'll stick with that assessment.

For San Francisco, as great as their defense has been, and as reliable as Frank Gore has been, it's tough to not have it all riding on the shoulders of Kaepernick. Dan Marino, Tom Brady, and Ben Roethlisberger are the only 2nd year QBs have ever made the dance (no rookie QB has started a Super Bowl). That's a pretty impressive list. However, only Vince Farragamo of the 1979 Rams had less career starts (5) than Kaepernick (7) at the time of his Super Bowl appearance.

At the risk of oversimplifying things, this game will come down to which QB blinks. Matty Ice (stupid nickname) was anything but for 29:29 of the 2nd half last week, but made 2 nice throws in the final 31, and led Atlanta to a come back win that should have never gotten to that point. Kaepernick was dominant against GB, and it appears that he has the skill set that will give the Falcons defense fits.

Atlanta has a shot, but I see more scenarios that lead to a SF victory.


I'm after-the-dash with Baltimore. Only one, as it appears. Baltimore appeared to awaken from their slumber in week 16 against an equally desperate Giants team, and has started to show their customary grittiness in the playoffs. Never underestimate a good storyline, and that's exactly what they have. They are combining the nobody believes in us card, with the Ray Lewis Inspirational Tour. Plus, they have proven to be NEs equal, as no team has consistently played NE as tough in recent years.

I can't believe I'm saying this, but Flacco has proven he can be trusted in this game, and in this stadium. Torrey Smith seems like a bad matchup for Aqib Talib. I'm also expecting that this will be Ray Rice's best game of the postseason. It took NE a dropped pass, and a missed chippy by Baltimore to advance last year, and NE isn't quite as dangerous, nor the matchup nightmare this year minus Gronk. I think Baltimore has just enough offense, just enough defense, and just enough grit to take them out.

Originally Posted by Trumpetbdw

I can't believe I'm saying this, but Flacco has proven he can be trusted in this game, and in this stadium. Torrey Smith seems like a bad matchup for Aqib Talib. I'm also expecting that this will be Ray Rice's best game of the postseason. It took NE a dropped pass, and a missed chippy by Baltimore to advance last year, and NE isn't quite as dangerous, nor the matchup nightmare this year minus Gronk. I think Baltimore has just enough offense, just enough defense, and just enough grit to take them out.

If you ignore Flacco's first two years in the league in the playoffs (which were his first two years in the league), he has compiled some pretty good playoff stats:

Over 6 games:

107/184 (58%), 1485 yds, 12 TDs, 2 Ints.

I'm not saying the Ravens are going to win, but you can't think this is an easy game for New England because of the QB.

This great SF defense has conceded a lot of points in three of its last four games: 34, 42 and 31.

Tom Brady sic'd them for 443 yards. Russell Wilson threw 4 TDs.

They can be had by a good offense, apparently. If they can't put pressure on Matt Ryan, I can see some points being scored. Especially if Julio Jones gets deep as was suggested by Kurt Warner. The guy is a physical beast and his hands are better than I had expected after seeing him in college.

I come back to John Abraham and his ankle. He hasn't practiced this week. They benched him last week when he couldn't get any push. Sounds like a high ankle sprain and I doubt he'll contribute much on Sunday. I fear that that may be the undoing of the Falcons. I suspect we may see them attempt to put a collapsing containment fence around Copernicus and hope he can't take advantage of the time that will give him to find receivers. I wonder if they'll do their best to make him a pocket passer and confuse him with disguised coverages? That's not really Mike Nolan's style here. He's tended to be very aggressive. But it's what they tried in the second half against Seattle.

Originally Posted by wxwax

This great SF defense has conceded a lot of points in three of its last four games: 34, 42 and 31.

Slight correction. The defense allowed 24 last week (7 came from Kaepernick's early INT), and only allowed 3 in the 2nd half prior to garbage time.

Originally Posted by Trumpetbdw

Matty Ice (stupid nickname) was anything but for 29:29 of the 2nd half last week

Really?

3rd Quarter. Falcons got with ball with 9:47 left.

A magnificent clock-killing 14 play, 7:36 minute drive later Matt Ryan threw a TD pass to his fullback Jason Snelling. Along the way Matty Ice earned his nickname by also throwing for two third-down conversions, one for 11 yards and the other for 6 yards.

That epic drive made the score 27-7, kept Wilson on the sidelines and should have sealed the game.

So I hardly think Matt Ryan did nothing for 29:29 of the 2nd half. This is typical of the perception which surrounds the Falcons. I'm surprised that a guy as well-infoirmed as you would write such a thing.

Originally Posted by wxwax

A magnificent clock-killing 14 play, 7:36 minute drive later Matt Ryan threw a TD pass to his fullback Jason Snelling. Along the way Matty Ice earned his nickname by also throwing for two third-down conversions, one for 11 yards and the other for 6 yards.

It was a pretty nice drive. The question is, can they do it 4 or 5 times in the game this coming Sunday? We shall see.

Code:

R.Longwell kicks 62 yards from SEA 35 to ATL 3. Jz. Rodgers to ATL 20 for 17 yards (J.Lane).
Atlanta Falcons at 9:47, (1st play from scrimmage 9:43)
3Q 09:43|1-10|ATL 20|M.Turner left end to ATL 25 for 5 yards (K.Wright; L.Hill).
3Q 09:05|2-5|ATL 25|Jz. Rodgers right end to ATL 25 for no gain (B.Mebane).
3Q 08:24|3-5|ATL 25|(Shotgun) M.Ryan pass short left to T.Gonzalez to ATL 31 for 6 yards (B.Wagner).
3Q 07:42|1-10|ATL 31|M.Ryan pass short right to Jz. Rodgers to ATL 33 for 2 yards (L.Hill).
3Q 07:00|2-8|ATL 33|(Shotgun) M.Ryan pass short right to J.Jones to ATL 46 for 13 yards (E.Thomas).
3Q 06:17|1-10|ATL 46|M.Turner right guard to ATL 49 for 3 yards (L.Hill).
3Q 05:41|2-7|ATL 49|M.Ryan pass short left to H.Douglas ran ob at SEA 44 for 7 yards.
3Q 05:14|1-10|SEA 44|M.Ryan pass incomplete deep right to H.Douglas.
3Q 05:07|2-10|SEA 44|(Shotgun) M.Ryan pass short left to J.Jones to SEA 23 for 21 yards (E.Thomas; K.Wright).
3Q 04:27|1-10|SEA 23|Jz. Rodgers left end to SEA 22 for 1 yard (K.Wright).
3Q 03:46|2-9|SEA 22|M.Ryan pass incomplete short left to J.Jones.
3Q 03:41|3-9|SEA 22|(Shotgun) M.Ryan pass short left to T.Gonzalez to SEA 11 for 11 yards (W.Guy).
3Q 03:00|1-10|SEA 11|M.Ryan pass short right to Jz. Rodgers to SEA 5 for 6 yards (B.Wagner).
3Q 02:11|2-4|SEA 5|(Shotgun) M.Ryan pass short middle to J.Snelling for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. M.Bryant extra point is Blocked (R.Sherman), Center-J.Harris, Holder-M.Bosher. PENALTY on SEA-R.Sherman, Defensive Offside, 0 yards, enforced at SEA 2 - No Play. M.Bryant extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Harris, Holder-M.Bosher. PENALTY on SEA-R.Sherman, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced between downs.
SEA 7 ATL 27, 14 plays, 80 yards, 7:36 drive, 12:49 elapsed

I don't think the Falcons are going to see a scoring binge like last weekend because the Falcons can play zone but it is another attack vector for a team that had enough already. A mid 30s score for both teams would not surprise me in the least.

Originally Posted by wxwax

Really?

3rd Quarter. Falcons got with ball with 9:47 left.

A magnificent clock-killing 14 play, 7:36 minute drive later Matt Ryan threw a TD pass to his fullback Jason Snelling. Along the way Matty Ice earned his nickname by also throwing for two third-down conversions, one for 11 yards and the other for 6 yards.

That epic drive made the score 27-7, kept Wilson on the sidelines and should have sealed the game.

So I hardly think Matt Ryan did nothing for 29:29 of the 2nd half. This is typical of the perception which surrounds the Falcons. I'm surprised that a guy as well-infoirmed as you would write such a thing.

Well, it is a stupid nickname. I like Matt Ryan, and was higher on him, and his team's prospects this year than anyone else I remember seeing on this site. But that nickname has always been dumb. However, your narrative of an epic drive was beautiful, so thank you for that.

Yes, I messed up the timing. I expect more of myself, and promise to do better in the future. If i have offended anyone in the Falcons organization with my egregious error, I truly do apologize.

In my haste to post my comment during a break in the action today, for some reason my mind shifted from 4th quarter to 2nd half. It was the 4th quarter where the Falcon offense tightened up until they had no choice but to let loose with 31 seconds left. Ryan did his job, Mike Smith responded by doing the best he could to ensure that Seattle would have their best opportunity to respond. Really, Smith's a good guy. I guess he just wanted to see the game won on the field, and not by having the clock wind an additional 10 seconds.

Well, at least now your agenda is out in the open! Congrats on coming clean.

Originally Posted by edave

I don't think the Falcons are going to see a scoring binge like last weekend because the Falcons can play zone but it is another attack vector for a team that had enough already. A mid 30s score for both teams would not surprise me in the least.

I concur. I'm a rotten prognosticator, but I can see a pretty high scoring game developing. Copernicus having fun on one side and Ryan and his receivers on the other.

As I've noted many times, a lot of folks here are really good with numbers and use them extensively to form judgments. Being brutal with numbers, I shy away from that sort of stuff.

Also, I mistrust them. Here's an example of why. An SI writer explains why Copernicus has made SF's offense less efficient, he explains the Passer Rating Differential and, relying heavily on numbers, predicts the Packers will beat the 49ers.

Oops!

Green Bay is #1 in Passer Rating Differential. They're out. Seattle and Denver are #2 and #3. They're out.

SF and Atlanta are #4 and #5, having just switched positions. So it seems likely that this statistic will help predict a winner. (It does, however, do an admirable job of identifying playoff teams. Of the top 12, only Chicago and Pittsburgh didn't make the playoffs.)

Kerry Byrne is not really an SI writer, he's the founder of CHFF. I guess he's also a writer for SI in this particular case.

Yep, GB was king of the heap in QB rating and close on ANY/A all season long. The Falcons aren't far behind them. Neither were the 49ers or the Seahawks. It's an outgrowth of good QB play and decent defense.

The stat SF led was interesting though, rushes for fist downs. Rich brought it up early in the season and I started following it, adding it to a bunch of other nutty things I track. By the mid point of the season (week 13), the Patriots and Redskins moved past the 49ers offensively, but no one passed them defensively and they held onto that particular delta rather comfortably.

The take away? Hope there aren't any critical 4th and 1 decisions for Mike Smith.

CHHF ate crow regarding passing differential. They actually came out and wrote they were wrong, though it was a stat that over the years has been very good at predicting winners.

So yes, a stat that predicted winners at a high enough rate was wrong after a kid had a great game coupled by a team showing up unprepared to face the read option. Im not sure what point wax is making. Apparently predictors that fail are proof that predictors shouldn't be used?

By the way, I think the Falcons have a good shot, but only if they dont stop defending right at the same time their QB makes a dumb throw.

Originally Posted by iwatt

Im not sure what point wax is making. Apparently predictors that fail are proof that predictors shouldn't be used?

Nah, just that a devout adherence to numbers is misguided. That article was a prime example. I extend my skepticism to post-career analyses which are predicated on the belief that numbers tell the whole story. I've never believed that.

Numbers don't measure leadership, motivation, character, that sort of thing. (Although teams like the Falcons try to turn some of that into a number using the Football Intelligence test. Good article here.)

I fail in the other direction, BTW. I don't pay enough attention to numbers. Given my disability in that area, I lean too heavily on what my eye tells me, and on what I think I can divine about motivation, home field and all the other intangibles.

Obviously, if there was a perfect way to analyze and prognosticate Vegas would be out of business.

Originally Posted by edave

Kerry Byrne is not really an SI writer, he's the founder of CHFF. I guess he's also a writer for SI in this particular case.

Yep, GB was king of the heap in QB rating and close on ANY/A all season long. The Falcons aren't far behind them. Neither were the 49ers or the Seahawks. It's an outgrowth of good QB play and decent defense.

The stat SF led was interesting though, rushes for fist downs. Rich brought it up early in the season and I started following it, adding it to a bunch of other nutty things I track. By the mid point of the season (week 13), the Patriots and Redskins moved past the 49ers offensively, but no one passed them defensively and they held onto that particular delta rather comfortably.

The take away? Hope there aren't any critical 4th and 1 decisions for Mike Smith.

That's a great point. Obviously last season we saw the Falcons' weakness on fourth-and-one. Same problem early this season. I think the Falcons got better at it as the season wore on, but I don't have any numbers to support that perception.

What's interesting is that Matt Ryan has been pretty good at throwing on third down. The problem, as Pruitt and Trumpet have said, might be Mike Smith. He's so conservative that he might insist on trying to run on fourth-and-one instead of just throwing it. Hope not, since I'd like to see the Falcons win.

Folks who don't follow the 49ers closely have no idea how much the team has been uplifted by the removal of the albatross around their necks. Captain Checkdown is on the bench where he belongs and the team is gleefully anticipating receiving a 2nd round pick from one of the perennial sucker teams (Cards, Chiefs, Raiders, etc).

I'm not sure how "Removal of Albatross" matches up with "Nobody Believes in Us" but it is damned powerful.

I want it noted for the record that Alex Smith's final pass as a 49er* was a 4 yard pass on 3rd and 9.


*If it was not his final pass as a 49er I will probably drink myself to death.

The Niners might not trade away Alexcuses unless they decide to keep him away from Arizona. His bonuses kick in after April 1st, so they'll probably just release him by then. Getting at least a late round pick is better than nothing though.