• The Commish Report/FF Open Thread: Week 7



    Two years ago, the emergence of Jimmy Graham and Rob Gronkowski seemingly symbolized a growing trend that TEs were going to become a viable and important part of fantasy teams. This came after years of many fantasy owners successfully ignoring the position, due to inflated costs for the few top options, and the crap-shoot that the rest of the TEs tended to present on a week to week basis. Of course, last year’s higher priority placed on TEs led to disappointing production essentially across the board. This year, while Jimmy Graham was being taken earlier than ever, part of the reasoning was due to “positional scarcity”. In other words, Graham’s value was being artificially inflated into the first round because the rest of the options at TE were perceived to be so weak. In fact, the #2 TE off of most boards in August was Rob Gronkowski, who unsurprisingly has yet to play a down this year (although there’s a very real chance he’ll finally be back this week).

    Continued below the week 7 rankings


    Code:
    Bye Week- Oakland, New Orleans
    
    QB
    1.	Peyton Manning DEN @ Ind
    2.	Tony Romo DAL @ Phi
    3.	Aaron Rodgers GB vs. Cle
    4.	Andrew Luck IND vs. Den
    5.	Cam Newton CAR vs. Stl
    6.	Jay Cutler CHI @ Was
    7.	Philip Rivers SD @ Jac
    8.	Robert Griffin III WAS vs. Chi
    9.	Matthew Stafford DET vs. Cin
    10.	Tom Brady NE @ NYJ
    11.	Eli Manning NYG vs. Min
    12.	Colin Kaepernick SF @ Ten
    13.	Ben Roethlisberger PIT vs. Bal
    14.	Russell Wilson SEA @ Ari
    15.	Nick Foles PHI vs. Dal
    16.	Matt Ryan ATL vs. TB
    17.	Andy Dalton CIN @ Det
    18.	Chad Henne JAC vs. SD
    19.	Ryan Tannehill MIA vs. Buf
    20.	Joe Flacco BAL @ Pit
    21.	Thad Lewis BUF @ Mia
    22.	Geno Smith NYJ vs. NE
    23.	Sam Bradford StL @ Car
    24.	Ryan Fitzpatrick TEN vs. SF
    25.	Carson Palmer ARI vs. Sea
    
     RB
    1.	Adrian Peterson MIN @ NYG
    2.	Matt Forte CHI @ Was
    3.	LeSean McCoy PHI vs. Dal
    4.	Jamaal Charles KC vs. Hou
    5.	Alfred Morris WAS vs. Chi
    6.	Reggie Bush DET vs. Cin
    7.	Knowshon Moreno DEN @ Ind
    8.	Frank Gore SF @ Ten
    9.	Giovanni Bernard CIN @ Det
    10.	Marshawn Lynch SEA @ Ari
    11.	Ray Rice BAL @ Pit
    12.	Doug Martin TB @ Atl
    13.	Arian Foster HOU @ KC
    14.	Eddie Lacy GB vs. Cle
    15.	Trent Richardson IND vs. Den
    16.	CJ Spiller BUF @ Mia
    17.	Danny Woodhead SD @ Jac
    18.	DeAngelo Williams CAR vs. Stl
    19.	Stevan Ridley NE @ NYJ
    20.	Ryan Mathews SD @ Jac – Still don’t trust him, but looked the best he’s ever looked last week.
    21.	Maurice Jones-Drew JAC vs. SD
    22.	Le’Veon Bell PIT vs. Bal
    23.	Joseph Randle DAL @ Phi
    24.	Bilal Powell NYJ vs. NE
    25.	Lamar Miller Mia vs. Buf
    26.	Chris Johnson TEN vs. SF
    27.	Jacquizz Rodgers ATL vs. TB
    28.	Zac Stacy STL @ Car
    29.	Brandon Jacobs NYG vs. Min- Safe to say he will never again have a performance like last week.  
    30.	Willis McGahee CLE @ GB
    31.	Andre Ellington ARI vs. Sea
    32.	Joique Bell DET vs. Cin
    33.	Fred Jackson BUF @ Mia
    34.	Brandon Bolden NE @ NYJ
    35.	Rashard Mendenhall ARI vs. Sea
    36.	BenJarvus Green-Ellis CIN @ Det
    37.	Ben Tate HOU @ KC
    38.	Chris Ogbannaya CLE @ GB
    39.	Jason Snelling ATL vs. TB
    40.	Roy Helu WAS vs. Chi
    41.	Ronnie Hillman DEN @ Ind
    42.	Bernard Pierce BAL @ Pit
    43.	Robert Turbin SEA @ Ari
    44.	Johnathan Franklin GB vs. Cle
    45.	Michael Bush CHI @ Was
    46.	Kendall Hunter SF @ Ten
    47.	Bryce Brown PHI vs. Dal
    48.	Mike Tolbert CAR vs. Stl
    49.	Donald Brown IND vs. Den
    50.	Daryl Richardson STL @ Car
    
     WR
    1.	Dez Bryant DAL @ Phi
    2.	Brandon Marshall CHI @ Was
    3.	Demaryius Thomas DEN @ Ind
    4.	AJ Green CIN @ Det
    5.	Victor Cruz NYG vs. Min
    6.	Calvin Johnson DET vs. Cin
    7.	Jordy Nelson GB vs. Cle
    8.	Josh Gordon CLE @ GB
    9.	DeSean Jackson PHI vs. Dal
    10.	Reggie Wayne IND vs. Den
    11.	Pierre Garcon WAS vs. Chi
    12.	Eric Decker DEN @ Ind
    13.	Antonio Brown PIT vs. Bal
    14.	Justin Blackmon JAC vs. SD
    15.	Vincent Jackson TB @ Atl
    16.	TY Hilton IND vs. Den
    17.	Wes Welker DEN @ Ind
    18.	Keenan Allen SD @ Jac
    19.	Andre Johnson HOU @ KC
    20.	Larry Fitzgerald ARI vs. Sea
    21.	Torrey Smith BAL @ Pit
    22.	Anquan Boldin SF @ Ten
    23.	Steve Smith CAR vs. Stl
    24.	Alshon Jeffery CHI @ Was
    25.	Julian Edelman NE @ NYJ
    26.	Hakeem Nicks NYG vs. Min
    27.	Mike Wallace MIA vs. Buf
    28.	Stevie Johnson BUF @ Mia
    29.	Harry Douglas ATL vs. TB
    30.	Mike Williams TB @ Atl
    31.	Brian Hartline MIA vs. Buf
    32.	Reuben Randle NYG vs. Min
    33.	Vincent Brown SD vs. Jac
    34.	Kenbrell Thompkins NE @ NYJ
    35.	Greg Jennings MIN @ NYG
    36.	Golden Tate SEA @ Ari
    37.	Kendall Wright TEN vs. SF
    38.	Michael Floyd ARI vs. Sea
    39.	Brandon LaFell CAR vs. St
    40.	Austin Pettis STL @ Car
    41.	Cecil Shorts JAC vs. SD
    42.	DeAndre Hopkins HOU @ KC
    43.	Donnie Avery KC vs. Hou
    44.	Robert Woods BUF @ Mia
    45.	Tavon Austin STL @ Car
    46.	Kris Durham DET vs. Cin
    47.	Nate Washington TEN vs. SF
    48.	Stephen Hill NYJ vs. NE
    49.	Emmanuel Sanders PIT vs. Bal
    50.	Dwayne Bowe KC vs. Hou
    
    
    TE
    1.	Tony Gonzalez ATL vs. TB
    2.	Jason Witten DAL @ Phi
    3.	Vernon Davis SF @ Ten
    4.	Jordan Cameron CLE @ GB
    5.	Julius Thomas DEN @ Ind
    6.	Jermichael Finley GB vs. Cle
    7.	Antonio Gates SD @ Jac
    8.	Greg Olsen CAR vs. Stl
    9.	Martellus Bennett CHI @ Was
    10.	Rob Gronkowski NE @ NYJ
    11.	Heath Miller PIT vs. Bal
    12.	Kyle Rudolph MIN @ NYG
    13.	Jordan Reed WAS vs. Chi
    14.	Brandon Pettigrew DET vs. Cin
    15.	Coby Fleener IND vs. Den
    16.	Brent Celek PHI vs. Dal
    17.	Charles Clay MIA vs. Buf
    18.	Jeff Cumberland NYJ vs. NE
    19.	Timothy Wright TB @ Atl
    20.	Scott Chandler BUF @ Mia
    
    
    K
    1.	Matt Prater DEN @ Ind
    2.	Dan Bailey DAL @ Phi
    3.	Robbie Gould CHI @ Was
    4.	Ryan Succop KC vs. Hou
    5.	Stephen Gostkowski NE @ NYJ
    6.	Steven Hauschka SEA @ Ari
    7.	Alex Henery PHI vs. Dal
    8.	Nick Novak SD @ Jac
    9.	Mike Nugent CIN @ Det
    10.	Phil Dawson SF @ Ten
    11.	Adam Vinatieri IND vs. Den
    12.	Greg Zuerlein STL @ Car
    13.	David Akers DET vs. Cin
    14.	Mason Crosby GB vs. Cle
    15.	Caleb Sturgis MIA vs. Buf
    
     DST
    1.	Seahawks vs. Ari
    2.	Chiefs vs. Hou
    3.	49ers @ Ten
    4.	Bears @ Was
    5.	Chargers @ Jac
    6.	Vikings @ NYG
    7.	Dolphins vs. Buf
    8.	Panthers vs. Stl
    9.	Ravens @ Pit 
    10.	Bengals @ Det
    11.	Packers vs. Cle
    12.	Broncos @ Ind
    13.	Bills vs. Mia
    14.	Rams vs. Car
    15.	Lions vs. Cin
    
    *Follow this link for inactive report.  Usually updated an hour to an hour and a half prior to kickoff.



    But a funny thing happened on the road back to TE irrelevance. Even without Gronk playing a snap, there has been a positional explosion that is currently putting 2012 to shame. Jimmy Graham is living up to the 1st/2nd round hype he was given in the preseason. Even with last week’s very disappointing donut, only Jamaal Charles and Julio Jones have scored more points per week than Graham (min. 5 games). Vernon Davis, Jordan Cameron, and Julius Thomas are also putting up monster seasons thus far. And while Davis was drafted as a top 5-7 TE, Cameron was merely drafted in most leagues as a late round sleeper, and Thomas went undrafted in many leagues. Aside from those 3, Antonio Gates has seen a bit of a renaissance in his production, Tony Gonzalez and Jason Witten continue to defy Father Time, Charles Clay (another undrafted option) has proven to be a very productive weapon in Miami, and Martellus Bennett has been a valuable addition for the Bears. With Gronkowski coming back, the TE position is officially loaded. There are many people who have ended up with at least 2 of the above names. There are also a few who have been stuck with the misfortune of relying upon Brandon Myers or Jared Cook. Depending on your perspective, the TE position is presenting both a wonderful buyer’s and seller’s market this year. It may take a little creativity on your part, but if you’re willing, either trading your excess away, or acquiring someone else’s excess has never been more viable.

    Who To Target- If you’re in need of a TE, the obvious answer is to target a team with multiple options at the position. If the Jordan Cameron owner also has Graham, Davis, or Thomas, then it’s possible that you could obtain him at a bit of a discount, consider most people are down on the Browns’ offense with Brandon Weeden under center. He’ll still cost a decent amount, but not nearly as much as he would have 2 weeks ago, and no matter who’s under center in Cleveland, Cameron will continue to have very good value. As for the more under-the-radar options, my favorite value at the position right now is Jermichael Finley. Finley has been a disappointment for a few years now, but looks much better this year. And now, with GB losing Randall Cobb for much of the rest of the regular season, Finley is going to be forced to take on a much bigger role, reportedly getting reps in practice out wide as a WR. Finley shouldn’t cost an arm and a leg to acquire, but I think he has a real shot to out-produce guys like Jason Witten, Vernon Davis, or even Julius Thomas the rest of the way.


    5 Trade Targets-
    QB- Jay Cutler- yes, he can be a reliable, top-end starter for your team. Plus, the schedule is super sweet, starting this week against a very poor Redskins secondary.

    RB- Knowshon Moreno- Ball and Hillman are no longer legit threats to his job, and with defenses focusing on Manning and the passing offense, he’s a consistent performer who has a real chance to finish in the top 5 at RB.

    WR- Alshon Jeffery- Bold prediction- Jeffery out-produces A.J. Green the rest of the season. Yes, I’m all in on the Bears passing game.

    WR- TY Hilton- His up and down production may be leaving his owner frustrated, but if you have a team that isn’t putting up explosive point totals, he may be a perfect fit to carry you to a couple of victories in the 2nd half of the year.

    TE- Jermichael Finley- see above.



    6 Players to stash-
    [I]QB- Josh Freeman- This is mainly for deep leagues, but yes, I’m going there. He’s now the starter in Minnesota. They want to add a downfield element to their offense to compliment AD, and have the weapons to make it happen. Freeman is not a sure thing, but is motivated, and more than capable.

    RB- Andre Brown- Will be eligible to return next month, Wilson may not come back this season (and wasn’t productive when he did play), and the current options are a mess. Brown looked good in his opportunities last season.

    RB- Shane Vereen- He was probably released in your league, and should be back in a few weeks. Was carving a Sproles/Woodhead-type role prior to his injury.

    WR- Brandon LaFell- He’s probably on your waiver wire, and I think there’s something here. Call it a hunch, but I think there’s a chance he takes off in the 2nd half.

    WR- Cordarrelle Patterson- With Freeman under center, he’s the type of explosive threat they’re looking to involve. It’s a longshot, but as the Vikings continue to fall out of the playoff hunt, expect him to get his shot in the near future.

    Bye-week Longshots for Week 7
    (Last week- Cutler, Henne, Reece (kicking myself for not going Jacobs), Sanders, Reed)

    QB- Nick Foles
    RB- Chris Ogbannaya
    WR- Brandon LaFell, Stephen Hill
    TE- Coby Fleener


    Email me at FPCommish@gmail.com
    Follow me on twitter @FPCommish

    Comments 9 Comments
    1. Trumpetbdw's Avatar
      I feel compelled to mention...

      For those that feel that South Jacksonville High is nothing but a fantasy wasteland, that simply isn't the case. Especially with Chad Henne under center, and unafraid to get the ball down the field.

      Justin Blackmon, with Cecil Shorts out for most of the game against Denver, had 20 targets, including 4 RZ targets (with 1 at the goalline), 14 catches, and 190 yards.

      The top 5 (Mega, AJ, Marshall, Dez, Demaryius) are nearly unattainable right now. But outside of those 5, no one has greater current and future potential than Blackmon, Josh Gordon, or Alshon Jeffery. If you need a HR, I'd try to take my chances and overpay for any of those 3 guys, as they appear to have the most upside relative to current value. Their value is clearly rising each week, but I still think their perceived value is pretty well below their potential return.
    1. Trumpetbdw's Avatar
      I'm committing a straight steal of links. Thanks Biggie!

      Collinsworth's Perfect Fantasy Challenge

      FootballPros I (NFL.com league)

      FootballProsAuction League

      FootballProsDynasty League
    1. Trumpetbdw's Avatar
      Quote Originally Posted by Trumpetbdw View Post
      I feel compelled to mention...

      For those that feel that South Jacksonville High is nothing but a fantasy wasteland, that simply isn't the case. Especially with Chad Henne under center, and unafraid to get the ball down the field.

      Justin Blackmon, with Cecil Shorts out for most of the game against Denver, had 20 targets, including 4 RZ targets (with 1 at the goalline), 14 catches, and 190 yards.

      The top 5 (Mega, AJ, Marshall, Dez, Demaryius) are nearly unattainable right now. But outside of those 5, no one has greater current and future potential than Blackmon, Josh Gordon, or Alshon Jeffery. If you need a HR, I'd try to take my chances and overpay for any of those 3 guys, as they appear to have the most upside relative to current value. Their value is clearly rising each week, but I still think their perceived value is pretty well below their potential return.
      To clarify, I don't think that Blackmon, Gordon, and Jeffery should be considered the #6, 7, 8 WR moving forward. There is way too much potential for volatility here. But if you're 2-4 and need a jolt, these 3 are going to be much easier to acquire than the actual #6, 7, 8 (Jordy Nelson, Victor Cruz, Pierre Garcon in my view).

      The next 5, in some order, are Gordon, Antonio Brown, Desean Jackson, Eric Decker, and Torrey Smith. Blackmon and Jeffery are both in the next tier, but as I said, if you need to take a chance, you can bump them up even higher.
    1. Patrick Sullivan's Avatar
      Quote Originally Posted by trumpetbdw View Post
      stop!!! Thief!!!!
    1. Trumpetbdw's Avatar
      With Gronk evidently back, I'd move him to #6, between Thomas and Finley. If you've been waiting this long for his return, you probably have to start him.
    1. Docta's Avatar
      I bid $500 on Randall Cobb in the dynasty league. The next highest bid was $125.

      I regret nothing.
    1. Patrick Sullivan's Avatar
      FP 2013 Pick'em Challenge

      Collinsworth's Perfect Fantasy Challenge

      FootballPros I (NFL.com league)

      FootballProsAuction League

      FootballProsDynasty League
    1. Patrick Sullivan's Avatar
      So the other day I dropped Janikowski and added Nick Novak & put him in my lineup. Or so I thought. The oversight left me with no kicker going this week. Those six points parked on my bench would have meant a win for Cold Gin Time Again. And I gave up a pretty good K.

      Dammit.
    1. Trumpetbdw's Avatar
      Quote Originally Posted by Patrick Sullivan View Post
      So the other day I dropped Janikowski and added Nick Novak & put him in my lineup. Or so I thought. The oversight left me with no kicker going this week. Those six points parked on my bench would have meant a win for Cold Gin Time Again. And I gave up a pretty good K.

      Dammit.
      One thing I hate about the espn site is that when you make a pickup for a player, or a trade, it doesn't automatically insert them into the spot for you.