• The Commish Report/FF Open Thread: Week 8

    Bye Week Strategy

    I’ll keep my commentary short and sweet this week. With 6 teams on bye in week 8, there’s a pretty good chance that many of you are dealing with significantly compromised rosters this weekend. Whether you’ve only lost 1 or 2 players from your roster, or 5 or 6, the goal, as one of our favorite contributors has made famously clear, is to go big or go home. While many may recommend simply looking for a few points here or there from your bye week fillers, I’m in favor of searching for a potential home run. Instead of taking a player with a 50-60% shot at 4-5 points, I want the guy with a 10-15% chance that he gets 20. And if he gets zero in the process, so be it. In the end, the floor isn't all that far removed from the safer (i.e. boring) pick.

    Over the past few weeks, I’ve been listing some weekly “shots in the dark” (or “longshots”). These players are typically fringe-types, and many can be found on the wire. This list is especially important to scan this week, as perhaps you can find a player or 2 that can help you compete, or even win your week, even if you’re dealing with a depleted roster. Many of these guys are barely rosterable (made up word) in some leagues. But each of these players has either seen a recent opportunity spike, or has a beatable matchup this week. If you find that any of them are available in your league, take a shot. Each of the players listed could easily flame out, but that’s OK. The goal is to give yourself the best chance to win. Mediocrity doesn’t usually win, while an unexpected HR or 2 usually does lead to a victory. Sometimes, all it takes is a little creativity to turn a certain loss into unexpected success. Check below the weekly rankings for your week 8 shots in the dark.

    Week 8 Lineup Rankings (Updated 10:45 Sat)
    Bye Week- Chicago, Tennessee, Indianapolis, San Diego, Baltimore, Houston
    1.	Peyton Manning DEN vs. Was
    2.	Aaron Rodgers GB @ Min
    3.	Drew Brees NO vs. Buf
    4.	Tony Romo DAL @ Det
    5.	Robert Griffin III WAS @ Den
    6.	Matthew Stafford DET vs. Dal
    7.	Ben Roethlisberger PIT @ Oak
    8.	Colin Kaepernick SF @ Jac (London)
    9.	Russell Wilson SEA @ Stl
    10.	Matt Ryan ATL @ Ari
    11.	Tom Brady NE vs. Mia
    12.	Michael Vick PHI vs. NYG (Check status- but he’s now practicing in full)
    13.	Eli Manning NYG @ Phi
    14.	Carson Palmer ARI vs. Atl
    15.	Alex Smith KC vs. Cle
    16.	Ryan Tannehill MIA @ NE
    17.	Andy Dalton CIN @ NYJ
    18.	Geno Smith NYJ @ Cin
    19.	Terrell Pryor OAK vs. Pit
    20.	Chad Henne JAC vs. SF (London)
    21.	Thad Lewis BUF @ NO
    22.	Christian Ponder MIN vs. GB 
    23.	Jason Campbell CLE @ KC
    24.	Kellen Clemons STL vs. Sea
    1.	LeShon McCoy PHI vs. NYG
    2.	Jamaal Charles KC vs. Cle
    3.	Adrian Peterson MIN vs. GB
    4.	Knowshon Moreno DEN vs. Was
    5.	Frank Gore SF @ Jac (London)
    6.	Reggie Bush DET vs. Dal
    7.	Marshawn Lynch SEA @ Stl
    8.	Eddie Lacy GB @ Min
    9.	Alfred Morris WAS @ Den
    10.	Le’Veon Bell PIT @ Oak
    11.	Giovanni Bernard CIN @ Det
    12.	Darren Sproles NO vs. Buf
    13.	Fred Jackson BUF @ NO (Spiller will likely sit out this week)
    14.	Stevan Ridley NE vs. Mia
    15.	DeMarco Murray DAL @ Det (he’s practiced, and appears to be good to go)
    16.	Darren McFadden OAK vs. Pit
    17.	Maurice Jones-Drew JAC vs. SF (London)
    18.	Jacquizz Rodgers ATL @ Ari  (SJax is back, but Rodgers should still have significant role)
    19.	Pierre Thomas NO vs. Buf
    20.	Andre Ellington ARI vs. Atl
    21.	Zac Stacy STL vs. Sea
    22.	Chris Ivory NYJ @ Cin
    23.	Lamar Miller Mia @ NE
    24.	Joique Bell DET vs. Dal
    25.	BenJarvus Green-Ellis CIN vs. NYJ
    26.	Roy Helu WAS @ Den
    27.	Chris Ogbannaya CLE @ KC (Could see a bunch of checkdowns with Campbell under center)
    28.	Brandon Bolden NE vs. Mia
    29.	Peyton Hillis NYG @ Phi (The RB reclamation society continues)
    30.	Willis McGahee CLE @ KC
    31.	Tashard Choice BUF @ NO (should see decent snaps with Spiller likely out)
    32.	Steven Jackson (back this week, although it’s impossible to know how effective he’ll be)
    33.	Montee Ball  DEN vs. Was (Hillman will be inactive due to lingering fumbling issues)
    34.	Kendall Hunter SF @ Jac (London)
    35.	Michael Cox NYG @ Phi
    36.	Daniel Thomas MIA @ NE
    37.	Daryl Richardson STL vs. Sea
    38.	Joseph Randle DAL @ Det (looks like Murray is going to play)
    39.	Bryce Brown PHI vs. NYG
    40.	Robert Turbin SEA @ Stl
    41.	Johnathan Franklin GB vs. Cle
    42.	CJ Spiller BUF @ Mia (Has not practiced, looks unlikely to play)
    43.	Rashard Mendenhall ARI vs. Atl (Has not practiced, looks unlikely to play)
    1.	Calvin Johnson DET vs. Dal
    2.	Dez Bryant DAL @ Det
    3.	Demaryius Thomas DEN vs. Was
    4.	Jordy Nelson GB @ Min
    5.	DeSean Jackson PHI vs. NYG
    6.	AJ Green CIN vs. NYJ
    7.	Pierre Garcon WAS @ Den
    8.	Eric Decker DEN vs. Was
    9.	Victor Cruz NYG @ Phi
    10.	Antonio Brown PIT @ Oak
    11.	Marques Colston NO vs. Buf
    12.	Anquan Boldin SF @ Jac (London)
    13.	Wes Welker DEN vs. Was
    14.	Larry Fitzgerald ARI vs. Atl
    15.	Jarrett Boykin GB @ Min
    16.	Justin Blackmon JAC vs. SF (London)
    17.	Stevie Johnson BUF @ NO
    18.	Terrance Williams DAL @ Det
    19.	Mike Wallace MIA @ NE
    20.	Hakeem Nicks NYG @ Phi
    21.	Danny Amendola NE vs. Mia (practiced this week- appears to have legit chance to play)
    22.	Golden Tate SEA @ Stl
    23.	Harry Douglas ATL @ Ari
    24.	Cecil Shorts JAC vs. SF (London)
    25.	Brian Hartline MIA @ NE
    26.	Michael Floyd ARI vs. Atl
    27.	Josh Gordon CLE @ KC (He’s about to be Campbelled)
    28.	Julian Edelman NE vs. Mia (viable unless Amendola is back this week)
    29.	Reuben Randle NYG @ Phi
    30.	Denarius Moore OAK vs. Pit
    31.	Greg Jennings MIN vs. GB
    32.	Kris Durham DET vs. Dal (consistent targets, consistent production, plus a great matchup)
    33.	Brandon Gibson MIA @ NE (quietly been very productive, especially in a PPR)
    34.	Kenbrell Thompkins NE vs. Mia
    35.	Donnie Avery KC vs. Cle
    36.	Jeremy Kerley NYJ @ Cin
    37.	Dwayne Bowe KC vs. Cle
    38.	Emmanuel Sanders PIT @ Oak
    39.	Riley Cooper PHI vs. NYG
    40.	Kenny Stills NO vs. Buf
    41.	Austin Pettis STL vs. Sea
    42.	Robert Woods BUF @ NO
    43.	Sidney Rice SEA @ Stl
    44.	Marvin Jones CIN vs. NYJ
    45.	Tavon Austin STL vs. Sea
    46.	Stephen Hill NYJ vs. CIN
    1.	Rob Gronkowski NE vs. Mia (He’s back, and already a target monster)
    2.	Tony Gonzalez ATL @ Ari
    3.	Vernon Davis SF @ Jac (London)
    4.	Jason Witten DAL @ Det
    5.	Jordan Reed WAS @ Den (Skyrocketing value, he’s the #2 threat in Was)
    6.	Jordan Cameron CLE @ KC (Presence of Captain Checkdown at QB shouldn’t hurt too much)
    7.	Julius Thomas DEN vs. Was
    8.	Jimmy Graham NO vs. Buf (GTD, but did practice some on Friday.)
    9.	Brandon Pettigrew DET vs. Dal
    10.	Heath Miller PIT @ Oak
    11.	Tyler Eifert CIN vs. NYJ (with so many on bye, I like his big-play upside this week)
    12.	Charles Clay MIA @ NE
    13.	Kyle Rudolph MIN vs. GB
    14.	Anthony Fasano KC vs. Cle
    15.	Jermaine Gresham CIN vs. NYJ
    16.	Jeff Cumberland NYJ @ Cin
    17.	Scott Chandler BUF @ NO
    18.	Andrew Quarless GB @ Min
    19.	Ben Watson NO vs. Buf (if Graham doesn’t play, go ahead and rank him 8)
    1.	Steven Hauschka SEA @ Stl
    2.	Dan Bailey DAL @ Det
    3.	Stephen Gostkowski NE vs. Mia
    4.	Matt Prater DEN vs. Was
    5.	Garrett Hartley NO vs. Buf
    6.	Ryan Succop KC vs. Cle
    7.	Alex Henery PHI vs. NYG
    8.	Phil Dawson SF @ Jac (London)
    9.	Kai Forbath WAS @ Den
    10.	Mike Nugent CIN vs. NYJ
    11.	Sebastian Janikowski OAK vs. Pit
    12.	Jay Feely ARI vs. Atl
    13.	David Akers DET vs. Dal
    14.	Matt Bryant ATL @ Ari
    15.	Mason Crosby GB @ Min
    1.	Seahawks @ Stl
    2.	Chiefs vs. Cle
    3.	49ers @ Jac (London)
    4.	Bengals @ NYJ
    5.	Steelers vs. Oak
    6.	Eagles vs. NYG
    7.	Packers @ Min
    8.	Broncos vs. Was
    9.	Saints vs. Buf
    10.	Patriots vs. Mia
    11.	Rams vs. Sea
    12.	Falcons @ Ari
    13.	Raiders vs. Pit
    14.	Cardinals vs. Atl
    *Follow this link for inactive report.  Usually updated an hour to an hour and a half prior to kickoff.

    Week 8 Shots in the Dark
    Last week’s longshots- Foles, Ogbannaya, LaFell, Hill, Fleener (Bad week for me, so with 6 teams on bye, I’m going double or nothing this week)

    QB- Carson Palmer (Atl has allowed at least 2 TD passes in every game, and avg allowing 280+ PYPG)
    QB- Eli Manning (He’s struggled, but Phi presents a great matchup for him)
    RB- Mike James (Could easily see 25 touches this week, including 4-5 receptions)
    RB- Chris Ivory (doubled his season total in carries last week. Looks to be the guy for the Jets)
    WR- Kenny Stills (perfect desperation HR option, as long TD is a decent possibility this week)
    WR- Kris Durham (Really solid PPR play, getting consistent targets, plus great matchup vs. Dal)
    WR- Jarrett Boykin
    WR- Terrance Williams
    TE- (Jordan Reed probably doesn’t count anymore)
    TE- Tyler Eifert
    TE- Brandon Pettigrew
    Bonus D/ST Pennsylvania special- Eagles, Steelers

    Email me at FPCommish@gmail.com
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    Comments 13 Comments
    1. Wordsworth's Avatar
      My team has been a disaster. My #1 and #3 picks are both out for the rest of the fantasy season (Doug Martin, Julio Jones) and my #2 pick has done absolutely nothing so far (CJ Spiller). I have no idea how I'm 4-3, but it's surely all downhill from here.
    1. Pruitt's Avatar
      I complained a few weeks ago when my team was 0-5 despite scoring the 6th most points in the league.

      Still getting points but am currently 0-7. Guess having Spiller and Ridley as my top two picks wasn't so wise. And as a sign of how quickly things can change, I am starting Brady this week and am not happy about it.
    1. Wordsworth's Avatar
      This was the first time in my years of playing fantasy that I actually went RB-RB with 1 and 2, and it has completely backfired.
    1. Pruitt's Avatar
      Quote Originally Posted by Wordsworth View Post
      This was the first time in my years of playing fantasy that I actually went RB-RB with 1 and 2, and it has completely backfired.
      When I first played fantasy football, RB RB was the way to go. Never again. Whoever took Peyton is most likely undefeated at this point.
    1. Wordsworth's Avatar
      I figured with RB being so thin, that maybe if I got two studs I'd be in the driver's seat for a repeat championship. That has not been the case whatsoever.

      A report just came out saying Doug Martin is eyeing a week 10 return which is in plenty of time for the playoffs, but his team has been so putrid that I can't even rely on a modicum of production from him.
    1. Patrick Sullivan's Avatar
      Quote Originally Posted by Pruitt View Post
      When I first played fantasy football, RB RB was the way to go. Never again. Whoever took Peyton is most likely undefeated at this point.
      I have PM as my QB in one league. Week one when he threw 7 TDs, I still lost 155-151 to Packa.

      Yep. I suck at FF.
    1. Trumpetbdw's Avatar
      I'm not usually one for RB/RB either, but I had the chance to keep Doug Martin for a 6th rounder, and also had the 1st pick in my home league draft, so it seemed like a no-brainer. Had I not kept Martin, I'd have kept Spiller for an 11th rounder. No matter what, the choice would have been wrong. This year has been a very weird one, since there have been many disappointing performances from usually reliable players, with only some related to injury. Traditional thinking has been slapped in the face.
    1. Trumpetbdw's Avatar
      Rankings are updated. Looks like Demarco Murray and Steven Jackson are going to play. Murray I like, Jackson I don't. I'd still guess that Jacquizz Rodgers will play a significant role, and is likely to outproduce SJax.
    1. Wordsworth's Avatar
      I don't trust SJax as anything more than a matchup flex at this point in his career, even if healthy.
    1. Trumpetbdw's Avatar
      Quote Originally Posted by Wordsworth View Post
      I don't trust SJax as anything more than a matchup flex at this point in his career, even if healthy.
      That's a lot more than I trust him.
    1. Trumpetbdw's Avatar
      Rankings are updated

      -Hillman will be inactive for Denver, evidently a healthy scratch due to ongoing fumble issues. It's all set up for Moreno to have a monster game.
      -Amendola practiced most of the week, and may actually play. Keep an eye on his status tomorrow morning (Albert Breer is reporting that he's officially been cleared by Pats docs, and will play tomorrow.)
      -Graham will be a GTD for NO tomorrow. If he sits, Ben Watson becomes a top 8 option, and is a good bet to put a TD on the board.
    1. Trumpetbdw's Avatar
      Just moving the links to this thread
    1. Trumpetbdw's Avatar
      Jimmy Graham is playing. DeMarco Murray is out. Amendola is active and starting.