Contributors
Before we get started, I’d like to send a special thank you to Nancy, for taking the reins with Amy last week, providing me with a week off. The ladies put up an epic effort, especially when it came to that huge Monday night affair with the Pats and Panthers.
To return the favor, Amy is taking a break this week. In her place is a special guest we all know and love. While last week was the girls’ night out, this week, it’s the big boys who are going wild. And by big, I mean that one of us has the word “big” in our handle. Also, it’s clear that I’m a big something, although I’m not exactly sure what. Perhaps you will all chime in to finish that thought for me. Anyway, there are a lot of topics to dive into this week, so we hope you all enjoy this very special installment of Biggie and the Blowhard.
From: Brian
Sent: Mon 11/25/13 1:40 PM
To: GoBig
The Lions have really made a mess of this thing for themselves
Well Biggie, thanks for jumping into the Blitz this week. I’m nothing if I’m not a terrible host, so I’m gonna go ahead and start things this week with a bit of a low blow. The past 2 weeks certainly haven’t been positive for your Lions, who have officially blown a golden opportunity. We were seeing signs of clear improvement from Matt Stafford, and Calvin was no longer being tackled inside the 5 at a historic rate. The defensive front was finally starting to live up to their expectations, Reggie Bush was proving to be the perfect free-agent anecdote as a duel-threat weapon, and Joique Bell was the perfect complement to Bush. The Lions were coming off back-to-back wins over Dallas and Chicago (their 2nd over the Bears), and looking ahead at two very winnable matchups, first against the suddenly vulnerable Steelers, followed by a game with then winless Tampa. With the Bears’ injury issues, and the Packers struggling without Aaron Rodgers, the Lions had the NFC North gift-wrapped for them. So of course, the Lions respond by losing both games, while Chicago won a big game last week against Baltimore, and the Packers somehow won the NFC North this week with a tie. Now, the Lions head into their game Thursday against GB in survival mode. Instead of a 2 game lead, they’ve kept the door open for Green Bay, and lo and behold, Mr. Discount Double-Check himself may find a way to angle himself into the lineup for the Packers. It’s becoming pretty clear that Gym Shorts needs to go, but 2 weeks ago, I thought the Lions were a legit SB contender, and were the one team in the NFC that matched up really well with Seattle. I’m curious as to your thoughts on what has specifically gone wrong with the Lions over the past 2 weeks.
With the Vikings-Packers game ending in a tie, is it possible that, in the interest of fairness, the NFL actually made things worse? That was the first game that saw both teams score on their first possession of OT, only to have the game still end in a tie. Thanks to the new rule, is a tie now more likely in the NFL than it was even 2 years ago, and is that better or worse than having a team win the game with a FG on their first OT possession, while the other team never ended up with an opportunity?
Steelers/Ravens
Can you believe the Browns actually entered the game with the Steelers yesterday as the favorites? This marks the first time they’ve been favored in a game over the Steelers since November of 2003, and only the 2nd time they’ve been the favorites in their 30 meetings since rejoining the NFL in 1999.
It’s not that the Steelers won yesterday as much as how they won. The defense, even without Lamarr Woodley and Brett Keisel, looked dynamic, forcing turnovers, and getting consistent pressure throughout the game. For the first time all year, Troy looked like Troy. His strip/recovery of Chris Ogbannaya was vintage Polamalu, as was his strip sack of Weeden. It was 2008 all over again, except for the fact that the offense was also helping out big time. Following a performance against Detroit that may have been the best of his career, Ben Roethlisberger was great again yesterday, despite a consistent wind north of 30 MPH and a wind chill of 1. He was efficient, wasn’t sacked once (and was barely touched), made the big play when he had to, and even mixed in a punt that ended up inside the 3. Finally, after allowing AJ Green (2 games) and Calvin Johnson a total of 83 receiving yards in 3 games this year, Antonio Brown put up a 6/92 on Joe Haden, including burning him on a 41 yard TD. AB is by no means the prototypical #1 WR, but because of his smaller size and subsequent quickness, the typical lockdown CBs have a really difficult time matching up with him. Brown leads the NFL in receptions, has established a career high in TDs, and hasn’t had less than 5 receptions or 50 yards in any game this season, despite matchups against Hall, Tillman, Cromartie, Talib, and now Haden. For this season, he’s been the most consistent receiver in the NFL.
Oh, and Josh Gordon is a beast.
Next up for the Steelers will be a Thanksgiving clash with the Ravens, who also moved themselves into a tie atop the logjam for the AFC’s 6th seed, completely shutting down the Jets yesterday. Flacco and K Justin Tucker were both able to survive the windy conditions in Baltimore, with Flacco making a few big plays, while Tucker hit on 4 FGs. The defense didn’t allow Geno Smith to get anything going. Following an early FG for the Jets, in their next 9 possessions, the Jets gained 44 yards and turned the ball over twice, while the Ravens were methodically putting their 19 points on the board. Those 9 possessions include 5 that ended with the Jets gaining 0 or negative yardage. The Ravens’ defense has quietly played very well following allowing 49 points to Peyton on opening night. The big problem for the Ravens remains their running game. Ray Rice was a non-factor yet again, marking the 9th time in 11 games he’s failed to rush for more than 3 yards per carry. Against a Steelers team that seems to be regaining their mojo, it’s going to be tough for a one-dimensional Ravens team to earn a crucial win over the Steelers, even at home. Considering that the NFL first breaks divisional ties when determining the playoff seeding, this game will likely serve as a de facto elimination game, especially for the Ravens, who can’t afford to go to 0-2 vs. the Steelers.
Quick Hits
Within that AFC WC log-jam, no team is in better shape regarding potential tie-breakers than Tennessee. They’ve now gone 4-0 against the bushel of 5-6/4-7 AFC teams, including wins over the Steelers, Chargers, Jets, and Raiders.
How close are we to having the Coach of the Year award named after Bruce Arians?
Funny how Tony Romo led a game-winning drive over a defense that had been the stingiest in the NFL over the previous 5 weeks, yet no one wants to talk about it. Including me. Had he failed, however…
Another week, another big road win for Carolina. It wasn’t pretty, but Carolina is clearly a very confident team right now. Remember that on top of their recent victories over SF and NE, Carolina also played Seattle as tough as anyone, losing by 5 in week 1.
And let’s not forget the Saints, who are quietly 9-2. They struggled on Thursday night in beating Atlanta, but now have 11 days to prepare for Seattle next Monday night. Three of their next 4 are against the Seahawks, and then 2 matchups with Carolina. That NFC South race is unexpectedly going to go down to the wire.
Manning v Brady
Finally, I’ll head out to New England, where the Pats won one of the weirdest games you’ll ever see. While Tom Brady was absolutely great in the 2nd half, Peyton Manning was never able to get things rolling last night. There’s a popular diatribe that discusses Manning’s performance in big games, and in the cold weather. But I’m not sure it’s the enormity of the game, or the temperature that bothers him as much as the other contributing elements. In fact, I don’t think the temperature has much impact on him at all. But is impossible, in my mind, to come away from last night’s game and say that Manning wasn’t affected negatively by the wind. His decision-making appeared to be fine, and while there were some drops, those numbers weren’t overwhelming. With other QBs like Big Ben (30+ MPH), Flacco (25+ MPH), and Tom Brady (20+ MPH), overcoming windy conditions yesterday, and even Josh McCown from the week before, it’s pretty clear that the wind impacts Manning’s performance much more than it impacts the performance of other QBs. Clearly, if I were to look up the wind/rain/snow factor in Manning games, the sample size would be small. But I think it’s fair to at least hypothesize why Manning seems to struggle in these conditions.
I compare Manning to a virtuoso classical musician. The classical musician is in 100% control of everything that’s laid out in front of them, and is meticulous with every detail. Prior to each performance, the classical musician will go through the exact same warmup routine every single time, knowing exactly what preparation is needed to give their best performance. And almost always, their performance is flawless. However, there’s one variable that the classical musician has a nearly impossible time accounting for, and that’s figuring out what happens when the notes are taken off the page. When everything is laid out in front of them, they are flawless. Meanwhile, the jazz musician is reading music in a much more abstract style. When the notes are taken off the page, the jazz musician is just getting warmed up. If thrown into a classical setting, the jazz musician may not be as precise as the classical musician, but they can certainly hold their own. However, if you throw a classical musician into a jazz setting, adding a swing to the rhythm, and replacing their script with chords meant for improvisation instead of actual notes, and the classical musician turns into a fish out of water.
This is how I feel Manning is. Everything has to be precise. When it is, there’s no one better. But when you make an adjustment to the elements, he has a relatively difficult time adapting, because it’s something he can’t control. Brady, Big Ben, or even Aaron Rodgers may not be as virtuosic as Manning, but each are able to better adapt to any type of weather condition. That doesn’t necessarily make any of them better than Manning, but it does speak to Manning’s one kryptonite.
Before I pass this over, I have one final question for you to chew on. If you had to choose between Peyton Manning and Tom Brady for the HOF, whom would you select as being the most deserving?
From: GoBig
Sent: Mon 11/25/13 6:56 PM
To: Brian
Same. Old. Lions.
I just don't know what else to say. As you stated above, Detroit had the NFCN all but sewn up if they win just one of their last two games. There is no shame in losing on the road to Big Ben and the Steelers, but to lose the way they did? Embarrassing, to say the least. Enter the suddenly surging Tampa Bay Freaking Buccaneers and their stork of a quarterback, their embattled coach and their defense that played the second half without its best defensive back. You are down 24-21 you are driving. You hit your best player at the five, he catches the ball and a defender strips it for a bizzaro interception which ends the game.
By the way, in case no one on TV ever talks about this, Matthew Stafford is not into reading coverage. He reads flow and looks for open spaces. If you can fool him into believing a space is open and pounce after he lets go of the ball, you have him.
Only the Detroit Lions can lose a game in this fashion. Credit to the Bucs. They came into a hostile, rocking stadium where they could not run the ball (only one run over 10 yards and had only one rushing first down), went 4-14 on third down conversions, allowed four sacks and left six points on the field (two missed FGs). On the other hand, the Bucs did what road warrior teams do to win games. They played pretty cleanly (Zero turnovers - ZERO!! - to the Leos' five - FIVE!!). They scored a defensive touchdown (L. Johnson 48-yard TAINT). And they hit a "hammer throw" for an 85 yard TD to Tiquan Underwood. Kudos to the Scrappin' Schianos. They absolutely deserved that win.
Oh. And Fire Gym Shorts. That is all.
The Tie
The Vikings, for once, did a service to the Lions by tying the Packers. And yes, I think the NFL will redo the overtime rules in the off-season. That was a disaster. The only saving grace in the NFCN is that no one else won, either. So my Lions are in the hunt. But I ain't holding my breath. I am working on the assumption that Aaron Rodgers will play Thursday and that is a problem.
Open For Business
So, 2014 Steelers Training Camp is open? I can't explain it any other way. Your guys appear to have reassessed their offensive philosophy. Let Ben be Ben? Check. That's really all you needed (perhaps Todd Haley is a secret reader of FP and has been following mikesteel's stuff?). And if Polamalu is going to continue to play like this, the Steelers may end up doing something special.
Manning or Brady
Oh Peyton, wherefore art thou? Dude, you have to be better. You have to be able to put away games. Yikes. If PM has to go to Foxborough in January...
On to your question about Manning v Brady: Brady. All day & twice on Sunday, Brady. I'm one of those awful people who regards winning as the most important stat of all. Brady wins. He wins pretty. He wins ugly. He wins with a revolving door to the wide receivers' room. He wins. And for you guys who denigrate wins as a stat, you need to reassess. It's the only stat that matters at the end of the day. The rest are important, too, but wins are king.
Your analogy about the musicians is a good one. I have always viewed Manning like a thoroughbred racehorse. When he is whole and his body is clicking, he is the best ever. Upset his applecart a little and he comes off the rail.
Quick Hits
Agree on Arians. Amazing job in the desert.
How about the football world starts showing some love to Rams? Two straight beatdowns. Nice.
I can't buy the Titans. Yet here they are in control of a wild card spot.
If Thomas Dimitroff is still in Atlanta come January, someone should smack Arthur Blank.
Zebras
The Zone Blitz would be incomplete without a rant against the officials. The NFL needs to start clarifying its rules. Hits to the QB are called, seemingly, based on star power. What is a catch? All TDs are 'reviewed' - even the obvious ones - which sucks some of the life out of the stadium. We don't tune in to watch referees, Rog. I should not know Clete Blakeman's name. Got that?
From: Brian
Sent: Tue 11/26/13 10:10 AM
To: GoBig
The Final Word on Week 12
I feel like Matt Stafford is becoming the next incarnation of Tony Romo. When things are going great, he's great. And occasionally, he's good enough to lift the team on his shoulders. But too often, when they need him to come up big, he'll lay an egg at the most inopportune time. Then again, despite the 3 picks to put Tampa in position for the upset, he made the play at the end to Megatron. HOW DOES MEGATRON GIVE UP THAT BALL??? Dude is a freaking Transformer! He's not supposed to be out-muscled by anyone, let alone a rookie DB like Josh Freaking Banks. JOSH BANKS??? You're better than that CJ. That's almost enough to have your nickname permanently revoked. C'mon, man!
That said, I think we have to give credit where it's due. The Bucs may have finally found their future at QB, as Mike Glennon has been great. His performance has gone completely under the radar, because the team had such a bad 1st half, but he's been saddled with no OL, one really good weapon in Vincent Jackson, and a running game that is now featuring a guy in Bobby Rainey who recently lost a battle for a gig in Cleveland to Chris Ogbannaya, Fozzy Whitaker, and Willis McGahee's corpse. In 8 starts, he has a 62% completion rate, 13/4 TD/INT ratio, nearly 1800 yards passing, and a 91.6 QB Rating, which places him 9th in the league, ahead of guys named Ryan, Stafford, Cutler, Kaepernick, Newton, Dalton, Flacco, Luck, Griffin, and some guy named Brady.
With Brady vs. Manning, I find myself getting labeled in the Manning-hater camp, but I'm not sure that's the case. Honestly, I want Manning to succeed. I want the greatest to prove that they're the greatest in every situation. That's what makes someone the greatest. No one would ever argue that Manning isn't a top 10-12 QB of all time, and I'd put him in my top 5-6. But where there's smoke, there's fire. Manning doesn't have the ability to improv that the other great QBs had. Bart Starr, Johnny U, Joe Montana, and John Elway were all grinders. Among his contemporaries, Brady and Big Ben are the two grinders that immediately come to mind. Sure, everyone is prone to a bad game, but all of the other QBs I listed are better at adjusting to the situations they can't control than Manning. That doesn't necessarily mean that they're historically better than Manning, because most are not. But if you put me in the toughest situation imaginable, and I need to pick 1 QB to win, I'd take all of those guys over Manning in that spot.
I agree, the answer is Brady. But give Manning one more SB run, especially if it includes a hypothetical trip to Foxborough, and that would probably be enough to change my answer.
Thanksgiving
There are some years where the Thanksgiving Day games are a bit of a disappointment, but this is not one of those years. We get to kick things off in Detroit with Green Bay coming to town for a gigantic divisional showdown. I agree that Aaron Rodgers is going to find his way onto the field, and that can't be good news for the suddenly reeling Lions. Why do I see Jordy Nelson streaking down the field for a multi-TD day? That said, GB has been struggling against the run, and I'm not sure they have a defensive answer for either Calvin or Reggie Bush. Even if Rodgers plays, I think I'm going to buy low, and lean slightly toward the Leos to bounce-back in a shootout.
The sneaky interesting game of the day is in Dallas, where they play a Raider team that were 10 seconds from holding the 6 seed in the AFC. As it stands, they're now tied for 12th out of 16, which shows how ridiculously mediocre...ERRRRR... close the AFC is this year. I'm looking forward to getting a look at Matt McGloin, who's looked pretty good in his first 2 starts in Oakland. Matty Light was a walk-on at Penn State, and by default, somehow started games in both his sophomore and junior seasons, amassing a 54% completion rate under the {well-known QB Guru} Jay Paterno. Leading up to the Ticketcity Bowl in 2011, McGloin and a teammate had a heated exchange that bled into the locker room, where McGloin was knocked unconscious, and reportedly suffered a seizure as a result. Then, in 2012, Bill O'Brien came to the rescue, and, in what has to be his career resume topper, somehow turned McGloin into a really good pro-style QB, which has led to this opportunity in Oakland. McGloin projects as a career backup, but even that is an amazing feat. Anyway, I think McGloin is going to have a nice game on Thursday, and may even get some help from Darren McFadden, who could return to the lineup. But while the Oakland defense isn't terrible, there's no way they'll shut down Dallas on their Thanksgiving stage.
Of course, the prime time game sees Cris and Al treking to Baltimore for Ravens v Steelers. In a game that looked like a dud a few weeks ago, now, it's suddenly as compelling as ever, as the winner instantly becomes the favorite to emerge from the muddled AFC playoff picture, and may even find themselves challenging Cincy for the top spot, if they falter just a bit. The Steelers are currently the more complete team, and Ben has been playing the best football of his career in carrying the Steelers to 5 wins in their last 7. We both know who I think will win this game, so I'm really curious as to your thoughts on what's going to take place on the Frozen Tundra of M&T Bank Stadium.
Under-the-Radar Games of the Week
On Sunday, Broncos-Chiefs is going to get most of the pub. I've got the Broncos taking out the Chefs in what looks to be pretty good weather in KC this weekend. And then we have that major clash on Monday night in Seattle with the Saints and Seahawks fighting for NFC supremacy. I'll take the home team to prevail in that one. Both of those games will get a lot of deserved hype, and I'll let you hit on both if you choose.
There are two other games that stand out to me on Sunday. The first is Arizona traveling across country to take on the Eagles. The Cardinals bring a nasty defense, and are on a massive roll, having demoralized the Colts on Sunday. Meanwhile, the next INT Nick Foles throws this year will be his first. Dude has a 16/0 TD/INT and a 128 QB Rating in 5 starts this year. However, Foles tends to struggle against consistent pressure, and the Chip Kelly offense can be thrown off by a physical secondary. The Philly defense has also improved dramatically as the season has gone on, but I see Arizona pulling out a win in a surprising defensive struggle.
The other game of interest is in San Diego (discovered by the Germans in 1904) between the Chargers and the Bengals. Phil Rivers has been more than sneaky good this year, he's been great. It's easy to forget that for a time, he was right in the conversation as one of the best QBs in all of football. Makes me think there was an injury he was hiding last year, because he wasn't nearly the same player. The Bengals are the better team, but I like the Chargers at home in a shootout. Plus, this is a little known fact, but QBs are 7-1-1 in the week immediately after being farted on by Andy Reid.
Well, that's about all I've got Biggie. I'm going to throw it on over to you to clean things up, and give us the final word on what to expect in week 13, then we can continue the conversation in the comments. Thanks again for jumping into the blitz this week. I truly appreciate the great effort.
From: GoBig
Sent: Tue 11/26/13 11:37 AM
To: Brian
Turkey Day Games
As of this writing, it appears Aaron Rodgers will not be making his return to action this week at Ford Field. I think the Packers still come in and play like their asses are on fire. But Matt Flynn won't be going against three third stringers and practice squad wideout pressed into service as a DB. So look for the Lions to take care of business for once and gain some much needed separation in the division race.
The game down in Dallas (can we start calling it Allas, since they have no 'd'?) interests me in that the Cowboys should whip the Raiders. So that means shootout, right? McGloin has been impressive. If the Raiders can get McFadden back on the field - and if he is close to 100% - they should gash the Cowboys and their 30th ranked rush defense. But Tony Romo is playing too well to lose to Oakland at home. Shootout city this Turkey Day, right?
Negative, Ghostrider. With the Steelers going into Baltimore, we will see one Thanksgiving game which features solid defense on both sides of the ball. I have no idea who wins. If the game was in Pittsburgh, I would say the Steelers win. Do I think the Ravens win at home? I just do not know.
The Rest
The rest of the weekend features the Broncos at the suddenly-without-two-of-their-best-defenders Chiefs. The Chiefs need that win in a bad way. Will their crowd push them over the top? It might.
What the hell is going on up in Seattle? Brandon Browner is reportedly being suspended for a year for violating the league's substance abuse policy. Strange. Pete Carroll has a team with off the field issues. Hmph. I'm shocked.
Is Colin Kaepernick really the next best thing? I just ain't seeing it. I understand why people think he is great. He was great last night. It seems the rest of the league had him figured out. Then last night happened. Work in progress, I guess.
What would be more perfect than a Dallas win to stay in the race for the NFC Least? A drubbing of the Iggles by that other bird team that used to be in that joke of a division, that's what. I got the Cardinals.
Do the Riverboat Ronnies keep it going against the now confident and plucky Scrappin' Schianos? I think the Panthers do what the Lions could not and put away the Bucs at home.
One last thing before I get back to work - the Patriots are angry. Tommy Terrific is going to shred the Texans and will probably be pounding the final nails into Gary Kubiak's coffin.
Thanks for inviting me to join you this week, Brian. It was a pleasure.
Hey people, your Week #13 Open Thread is up & running. Enjoy the games.
