• Big Ben, DFS, and Other Random Thoughts From Week 3


    -Big Ben only being out for 4-6 weeks, as is being reported by literally every person in charge of reporting such things, is a huge win for the Steelers. (Mike Tomlin has confirmed the MCL injury during today’s press conference, but will only admit to Roethlisberger being out "for a number of weeks".)

    -The fortunate part is that he wasn't planting to throw, he was attempting to move up in the pocket, so he didn't have the full body weight on the leg when he was hit. Also, if you look at the ankle, it gave a little bit, which had to have actually been a good thing. If he had full weight on the plant leg, and the foot stuck in the ground, the ACL surely would have been impacted.

    -I thought hitting the QB in the knee or below was supposed to be a penalty. I’m guessing a hefty fine will be in Mark Baron’s future. I’m not smart enough to claim intent, but I’m certainly smart enough to understand reckless. Barron was trying to make a play, went down, and continued lunging directly at the knee area. Helmet-to-helmet penalties are now clearly having an impact on the way most defenders go about defending a pass downfield, and when attacking a QB in the pocket, that awareness for the knee area should be just as strong.

    -Last week I wrote, “If the Bears are bad with Jay Cutler, what are they without him?” Well, they put up arguably the most consistent offensive performance in NFL history—10 possessions, 10 punts. They may have had only 1 trip into Seahawks territory, but zero turnovers! Winning!

    -For Jimmy Clausen to stand out in a week where two McCowns, a Cousins, and a Weeden started says a lot about his incompetence. Yes, Seattle had Kam Chancellor back, but it is clear that Jimmy Clausen shouldn’t be pulling in an NFL paycheck. That was embarrassing.

    -Speaking of embarrassing, have the Dolphins officially quit on Joe Philbin? That’s way too talented a team to perform in the way they have over the past 2 weeks. At this point, a change probably should be in order.

    -The Patriots look really good right now, but the best team in the league through 3 weeks is the Arizona Cardinals.

    -San Francisco’s 47-7 loss to Arizona coupled with Minnesota’s 31-14 win over San Diego is another glaring example as to why we should never overrate Week 1.

    -When I received my ESPN The Magazine in the mail last week, the cover was a promotional message for Draftkings. After having seen numerous commercials, my daughter didn’t even bat an eyelash as she said, “hey, there’s Dave Gomes”.


    A Generalized Truth About Daily Fantasy Sports

    Commercials for Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) sites FanDuel and Draftkings are now flooding our sporting events as the DFS industry is exploding. With the popularity of fantasy sports growing every year, the promise of a chance at a big payday is obviously appealing to many who either consider themselves to be good at a particular fantasy sport, or at the very least enjoy playing. The fact is, the Draftkings mantra of “real people, real winners” is a bit disingenuous at best. The real winners they feature in their commercials, including Gomes, Drew Dinkmeyer, Chris Prince, and others, are DFS pros—“sharks”, if you will. These players, and many others, spend hours plugging in algorithms that help them come up with thousands of optimal lineups, then plug in those lineups on a nightly basis, spending thousands each night in the process. The general goal on a nightly basis is to earn about 8%-10% profit, while obviously skewing the odds incredibly in their favor when it comes to the big tournaments. As both of the leading DFS sites continue to promote the promise of a big payday, it’s important to understand that as a random player interested in testing the waters, your chances are even more minimal than they appear.
    That’s not to say you can’t enjoy DFS, or make a little money in the process, but if you’re going to do it, it’s best to lower your expectations. The sites have started to promote their “50/50s” where half the field wins an additional 80% of their money back (for example, spend $5 to win $9). You can also play smaller tournaments, leagues of varying numbers of participants, and certain tournaments that limit each person to a single entry. And even in the bigger tournaments, roughly 20% of the entries submitted end up winning something, so it’s certainly not impossible to have a little fun and build up a bit of a bankroll.
    For those that choose not to spend money, but are still interested in checking it out, you are able to set up a free account, and play in any number of free contests. There are always a few free tournaments that offer a very nominal and hard-to-get prize ($2 ticket to the top 5, for example), and there are also free, no-prize tournaments that are set up to help introduce you to the whole experience. You can also create your own contest, setting up a head-to-head or tournament matchup with friends that you know. I’ve actually done exactly that with my kids, setting up a free account for each, and, aside from it being a fantastic math lesson, using it to help them get into sports a little bit more. I explained the basics of how the salary cap works to my 6-year-old son, and he’s put together lineups for basketball, baseball, and football (usually beating me in the process). Yesterday, he put a lineup together that consisted of Cam Newton, Chris Johnson, Le’Veon Bell, Demaryius Thomas, Antonio Brown, John Brown, etc. Last week, he put Allen Robinson on his team and put up 200+ points (I believe the winner of the big tournaments last week had in the 230 range- I should have played his lineup and claimed it as my own).
    From novices to pros, DFS can provide whatever it is that you enjoy about fantasy sports. It can be a free source of family entertainment, your nightly lottery ticket, or literally anything in between. But as with anything, it’s always good to know exactly what you’re getting into before you actually get into it.

    Comments 42 Comments
    1. Bengals1181's Avatar
      eerie




    1. Rich Gapinski's Avatar
      Hey, you forgot to mention that the Bears ran a total of 3 plays in Seattle territory. Progress!
    1. Hoser's Avatar
      That Niner loss was historically awful. Just pathetic. A steaming boatload of crappagio with Kaeper in the captain's chair.
      Normally I would look for a silver lining like "they must have hit rock bottom because it can'[t get much worse than that" but with the Packers coming to town next week...I'm not sure we've seen the deepest depth yet.
      Horrible.
    1. Patrick Sullivan's Avatar
      It is so funny the NFL keeps its distance from traditional gambling but has thoroughly embraced daily fantasy sports.

    1. Patrick Sullivan's Avatar
      The Lions looked inept and confused on offense and anemic on defense.

      That team needs a cleansing from the top down. Mayhew, Lewand, CaldwellBot, Lombardi, the ball boys...
    1. Amy's Avatar
      A couple things.

      First, I agree with Brian that the Steelers got lucky and that there should have been a flag on the play.

      I watched Bills and Dolphins in the late slot. The things that struck me:

      1) Best coach wins. Rex is a very good coach. Joe Philbin, as a head coach, is not.
      2) Miami is paying a defensive lineman QB money. But, as good as Suh is (and I am not a Suh hater), he is not a QB. Investing all that money, and cap space, on an interior lineman is unwise.
      3) They're not calling good defense. Suh was double, or triple, teamed every play. Yet, Miami got no pressure. That's a failure of the coaches.
      4) They don't scare you on offense. There's no one on the Miami offense that worries me. They've scored 51 points, 17 per game. Only the Bears, Jags, Rams,and 49ers have fewer. KC also has 51, but has only played two games at time of this writing.

      Miami was a preseason trendy pick. I'll be shocked if they win 6 games. The Pats and Bills are for real, the Jets might be. if the Jets win in London, Sunday morning, the 'phins season is over. 1-3 (and the 1 win was lucky), with an 0-2 division record would be doom.
    1. Brian Williams's Avatar
      Quote Originally Posted by Rich Gapinski View Post
      Hey, you forgot to mention that the Bears ran a total of 3 plays in Seattle territory. Progress!
      I did mention that their one drive into Seahawk territory, but didn't give them credit for the entirety of the 3 plays. Mea culpa.
    1. Brian Williams's Avatar
      Quote Originally Posted by Bengals1181 View Post
      eerie




      Aaaaaand, the most predictable post of all time. Finally RETRIBUTION!!!

      A full decade later and we still can't move on. The difference is that now, that hit is against the rules (the Brady rule), and a point of emphasis. At the time of the Von Oelhoffen hit, it was not illegal, and was not subject to fine. Now, it is subject to a hefty fine, hence my position.

      Plus, if we're being fair, von Oelhoffen was fighting through a block, went to the ground, and happened to meet Palmer's knee at the same time. Barron wasn't being blocked, and actively crawled in an effort to get to Roethlisberger's legs, so I'm having a more difficult time finding an excuse for him. Though Roethlisberger was running in the pocket as opposed to throwing, which is what ultimately saved his knee from worse damage.

      As I said in the thread, I'm not here to judge intent, but I can proclaim recklessness. Barron's hit was clearly reckless. Just like Bernard Pollard's hit on Brady was clearly reckless at best. Unfortunately, these things happen. Ben was more fortunate than Brady or Palmer. And you never want to see anyone get hurt.

      As for Von Oelhoffen, I found this interesting nugget from the Cincy Jungle written this past July. It's probably time to move on

      Even though Palmer was von Oelhoffen's opponent that day, the injury was a shocking experience for him, and he knew it was bad as soon as it happened.

      "Honestly, why I was shocked, and it was tough for me, was because I heard it pop. It sounded like a gunshot, man, because it was right by my ear. I knew right off it was gone, and you don't want that, so that can be overwhelming. (Kimo pauses) It's tough."

      It was clear Von Oelhoffen was remorseful for what had happened. He makes it even harder to even suggest there was any malicious intent when his hit injured Palmer.

      It was, and still is, a tough pill to swallow that the Bengals' Super Bowl dreams ended on that play, but there's no sense in placing blame on it, at least toward von Oelhoffen.
      My only question, if we don't blame von Oelhoffen, who do we blame? The OL that von Oelhoffen was fighting through, then blocked him toward the ground as he accidentally went into Palmer's knee?



    1. Patrick Sullivan's Avatar
      Wow. The Bears just unloaded Jared Allen via a trade with the Carolina Panthers. This makes sense. Allen is a 4-3 rush end, not a linebacker. He should thrive in the Panthers' scheme.

      I'm not seeing any details regarding the move.
    1. Brian Williams's Avatar
      Quote Originally Posted by Patrick Sullivan View Post
      It is so funny the NFL keeps its distance from traditional gambling but has thoroughly embraced daily fantasy sports.

      Fantasy sports are not considered to be gambling in 45 of 50 states. That most likely plays a role in the NFL's (likely under-researched) decision to embrace fantasy football, though if you'll remember, they were later to the party in that regard than the other sports.
    1. Patrick Sullivan's Avatar
      The Lions stink. However, that Johnson guy is still pretty damn good.

    1. Patrick Sullivan's Avatar
      Quote Originally Posted by Brian Williams View Post
      Fantasy sports are not considered to be gambling in 45 of 50 states. That most likely plays a role in the NFL's (likely under-researched) decision to embrace fantasy football, though if you'll remember, they were later to the party in that regard than the other sports.
      When you can win or lose money based on your opinion of what will be the result of something which has not yet happened, that's gambling. The NFL (and others) can put all the lipstick they want on that pig and it will still be gambling.

      I do not have a problem with any of it. Let's just call it what it is.
    1. Bengals1181's Avatar
      Quote Originally Posted by Brian Williams View Post
      Aaaaaand, the most predictable post of all time. Finally RETRIBUTION!!!

      A full decade later and we still can't move on. The difference is that now, that hit is against the rules (the Brady rule), and a point of emphasis. At the time of the Von Oelhoffen hit, it was not illegal, and was not subject to fine. Now, it is subject to a hefty fine, hence my position.

      Plus, if we're being fair, von Oelhoffen was fighting through a block, went to the ground, and happened to meet Palmer's knee at the same time. Barron wasn't being blocked, and actively crawled in an effort to get to Roethlisberger's legs, so I'm having a more difficult time finding an excuse for him. Though Roethlisberger was running in the pocket as opposed to throwing, which is what ultimately saved his knee from worse damage.

      As I said in the thread, I'm not here to judge intent, but I can proclaim recklessness. Barron's hit was clearly reckless. Just like Bernard Pollard's hit on Brady was clearly reckless at best. Unfortunately, these things happen. Ben was more fortunate than Brady or Palmer. And you never want to see anyone get hurt.

      As for Von Oelhoffen, I found this interesting nugget from the Cincy Jungle written this past July. It's probably time to move on



      My only question, if we don't blame von Oelhoffen, who do we blame? The OL that von Oelhoffen was fighting through, then blocked him toward the ground as he accidentally went into Palmer's knee?





      did I miss the part where I was reveling in Ben's injury or calling it retribution?



      I never like seeing anyone get a serious injury.


      Just pointed out that they were eerily similar hits. Tony Kornheiser just said the exact same thing on PTI. Tossed in the Brady hit too.



      All that said, I can't see anything wreckless about Barron's hit. He's a football player trying to make a play. He trips into the feet of Ben, its not like he dove towards him. Then he did what he could to make the sack before Ben got the ball off.
    1. iwatt's Avatar
      1,5 games of Pickles at QB... expect the fans to call out for David Fales to play. I know nothing of him.
    1. Patrick Sullivan's Avatar
      Quote Originally Posted by Patrick Sullivan View Post
      Wow. The Bears just unloaded Jared Allen via a trade with the Carolina Panthers. This makes sense. Allen is a 4-3 rush end, not a linebacker. He should thrive in the Panthers' scheme.

      I'm not seeing any details regarding the move.
      In case anyone is paying attention, Chicago paid Jared Allen an $11.5 million roster bonus this season...

      $11.5M for three underwhelming games, then trade him. The Panthers owe Allen a mere $823,000 for the balance of this season. Allen will be a free agent in 2016.
    1. Brian Williams's Avatar
      Quote Originally Posted by Patrick Sullivan View Post
      When you can win or lose money based on your opinion of what will be the result of something which has not yet happened, that's gambling. The NFL (and others) can put all the lipstick they want on that pig and it will still be gambling.

      I do not have a problem with any of it. Let's just call it what it is.
      Understood, but if wagering on games were legal in 45 of 50 states, I'm sure the NFL would have a different stance on that as well.

      And unlike wagering where lines are intentionally drawn to split the betting down the middle, fantasy sports, whether daily or seasonal is considered skill-based gaming. Personally, with the time I've put in and the success that I've had with fantasy sports for 15+ years, while everyone will fall into a bad team here and there based on a variety of issues, I've found that in most cases, the better players will rise to the top. Classifying it as gambling is fine (even as the law disagrees), but I fully agree with the sentiment that it's much more skill-based than luck-based over the long haul.

      For those that don't put in the time, and do it merely for enjoyment, then yes, I agree it tends to be much more along the lines of actual luck-based gambling. But it's something that you get what you want out of it.
    1. Brian Williams's Avatar
      Quote Originally Posted by iwatt View Post
      1,5 games of Pickles at QB... expect the fans to call out for David Fales to play. I know nothing of him.
      Coming out of San Jose State, David Fales was one of the flyer QBs in last year's draft I thought had a chance to become something pretty decent. I hope they give him a shot as soon as next week. Why not?
    1. Patrick Sullivan's Avatar
      “We need to generate more than zero points to win games. There’s no doubt,” [Bears HC John] Fox said, via Rich Campbell of the Chicago Tribune.
      Some intense analysis, there, coach. Riveting.
    1. Bengals1181's Avatar
      Man, in the offseason I called the Bears my dark horse for the #1 pick but even I couldn't have predicted a September fire sale.
    1. Patrick Sullivan's Avatar
      Quote Originally Posted by Brian Williams View Post
      Understood, but if wagering on games were legal in 45 of 50 states, I'm sure the NFL would have a different stance on that as well.

      And unlike wagering where lines are intentionally drawn to split the betting down the middle, fantasy sports, whether daily or seasonal is considered skill-based gaming. Personally, with the time I've put in and the success that I've had with fantasy sports for 15+ years, while everyone will fall into a bad team here and there based on a variety of issues, I've found that in most cases, the better players will rise to the top. Classifying it as gambling is fine (even as the law disagrees), but I fully agree with the sentiment that it's much more skill-based than luck-based over the long haul.

      For those that don't put in the time, and do it merely for enjoyment, then yes, I agree it tends to be much more along the lines of actual luck-based gambling. But it's something that you get what you want out of it.
      Rationalize any way you want. The second money and speculation get together, it's gambling (see: the stock market, the lottery, the local Bingo game, your neighborhood T-Ball league's raffle, etc.).

      Sorry to sound like an ass. Charades like this make my blood boil.