• FootballPros.com 2015 Upset Special Week #11: Psychosocial


    Nine of twelve possible Upsets brought home some bacon last week. NINE! The Titans let down hobbes and jihinkamp. The rest of us scored with all manner of Upset Special picks.

    And Amy? She just extended her streak to six straight upset picks. Amy is three up with ten to go. A couple of you are in position to make a move. Don't make us hand out the crown in week 16, K?

    Me? I shoulda stuck with my original pick. Frickin' Lions... Those will skew your world view.



    STANDINGS

    Rules:
    • One pick per week
    • Your chosen team must be at least a (+3) underdog (Only games listed in this column are eligible)
    • Your chosen team must win the game outright (no 'pushes' or 'covers')
    • Season winner is the one with the most upsets correctly chosen between Week #1 through the Conference Championship Games (20 weeks all together)
    • There will be a points system to determine a winner in the event of a tie
    • Points will be accumulated by adding the game spreads for your correct picks (if you take Carolina (+4.5) and Carolina wins, you will be awarded a win and 4.5 points). Be careful making picks based on the number of points possible. Points only count if you are tied for the total wins lead when the whole contest is finished.
    • The No Upsets Option: Predict correctly that 'No Upsets' will occur in any given week and you will be awarded one win and a point total equal to the sum of all the spreads in that week's Upset Special. If you wish to exercise the 'No Upsets' Option, that prediction is due by 5 minutes prior to kickoff of the first game of the week in question. This includes Thursday Night Football or Saturday games. The 'No Upsets' option is confined to the Upset Possibilities listed in this article.
    • Picks are due no later than 5 minutes before the scheduled start of the broadcast time for your game. The FootballPros.com time stamp on your post is gospel.
    • Spread lines, once posted, will remain static throughout the week. This isn't The Sports Book at Caesar's Palace, after all.
    Let's. Get it. ON!!

    Week #15 Upset Special Possibilities

    Odds by OddsShark.
    All times Eastern.
    Underdogs in bold.

    Thursday Night Football
    • Titans (+3) @ Jaguars

    Sunday 1:00 Games
    • Broncos @ Bears (+3)
    • Colts (+5.5) @ Falcons
    • Redskins (+7.5) @ Panthers
    • Buccaneers (+5.5) @ Eagles

    Sunday 4:15 Games
    • Chiefs @ Chargers (+3)
    • 49rs (+12.5) @ Seahawks

    Sunday Night Football (8:20 PM)
    • Bengals (+5) @ Cardinals

    Monday Night Football (8:30 PM)
    • Bills (+7) @ Patriots

    Biggie's Week #15 Upset Special: Time to start butterin' up the competition. Gimme the Bears (+3)

    Comments 19 Comments
    1. Ragar's Avatar
      Bears

      There should be a secondary award for best Points to wins ratio...Hey lookee lookee, i'm in the lead with +7 (21 pts/3 upsets) and jhinkamp

      Tertiary award for largest upset pick....hey lookee lookee, I'm tied for first in that one as well with iwatt at 9.5.
    1. Amy's Avatar
      I thought about the Bengals. But, it's a night game. And, well, sorry Bengals fans, but history says Dalton will not play well.

      As none of the other underdogs compel me at all, I'm going with

      No Upsets for for 52 points if I'm right.
    1. Bengals1181's Avatar
      Quote Originally Posted by Amy View Post
      I thought about the Bengals. But, it's a night game. And, well, sorry Bengals fans, but history says Dalton will not play well. As none of the other underdogs compel me at all, I'm going with No Upsets for for 52 points if I'm right.
      while that's the popular narrative, Dalton has actually played pretty well in 4 of his last 6 primetime games. Above 90 passer rating in 3 of them. 68% completions or better in three of the last 4 (would have been 4 for 4 if not for high number of drops Monday). 9 TD to 7 INT ratio over the 6 (weighed down by the 3 INT crapfest vs Cleveland last year) It's also worth noting that the last two regular season losses for the Bengals (both in primetime) have ended with AJ Green fumbles while the offense was driving for the potentially game winning score.

      Dalton certainly is "lesser" in primetime games overall, but most Bengals fans will accurately tell you that its an overall team issue, not something relegated to just Dalton (and even pre-dates the drafting of Dalton). One only needs to look at Monday. 7 offensive penalties, 5 drops, a costly AJ Green fumble, and a failed run game all combined with a mediocre game by Dalton. Marvin is something like 11-21 in primetime games.

      All that said, certainly wouldn't begrudge anyone for not picking the Bengals this week. Road game on a short week against a great team, regardless of what you think of Dalton.
    1. xmenehune's Avatar
      I'm thinkin' that road dog upsets are much tougher to predict than home dog upsets and a +1/2 pt for a road win, might make it more interesting...
      or may +3 1/2pts would encourage more pick of road teams...

      I'll take IND w/oldie QB Hasselbeck

      TEN, CHI and TB look like winners as well
    1. Evan Vracar's Avatar
      I'll go Colts
    1. ScottDCP's Avatar
      Bears and Bills will both win. Bears will win more handily, therefore I select Bills.
    1. Brian Williams's Avatar
      Colts
    1. hobbes27's Avatar
      I really should take the Bears, but I don't want to jinx them for the sake of Iwatt. So gimme the Colts
    1. iwatt's Avatar
      Quote Originally Posted by hobbes27 View Post
      I really should take the Bears, but I don't want to jinx them for the sake of Iwatt. So gimme the Colts
      I have to keep doing this. This is what a compulsion feels like.

      Gimme the Bears.

      ( prepare for the Brock Ostseiler 7 TD game, aka the Matt Flynn special)
    1. Bengals1181's Avatar
      what are people realistically expecting of Osweiler? I see him as a huge unknown at this point. He's got, 54 career passes?
    1. iwatt's Avatar
      Quote Originally Posted by Bengals1181 View Post
      what are people realistically expecting of Osweiler? I see him as a huge unknown at this point. He's got, 54 career passes?
      I'm hoping he is the New Curtis Painter, but with my luck he'll be the new Aaron Rodgers. For at least one game.
    1. Bengals1181's Avatar
      Quote Originally Posted by iwatt View Post
      I'm hoping he is the New Curtis Painter, but with my luck he'll be the new Aaron Rodgers. For at least one game.

      Bears D has been much better than I'd have expected this season.
    1. Brian Williams's Avatar
      Quote Originally Posted by iwatt View Post

      I'm hoping he is the New Curtis Painter, but with my luck he'll be the new Aaron Rodgers. For at least one game.
      Obviously he's not the same type of player, but I remember back to Kaepernick's first start, also against the Bears. Not much was expected, but he performed lights out, and never did give the job back to Alex Smith.

      Perhaps Osweiler is bad, but isn't it just as likely he ends up looking really good? The most likely outcome is that he's ok, but really, anything is on the table at this point. And as I briefly touched on in WC, if he meets his 90th percentile expectancy, gives Denver an offensive jolt, and allows Demaryius Thomas to look like DeMaryius Thomas again, does Peyton get the job back when he's ready, or is there an outside chance Osweiler can strangle-hold this thing?
    1. Afrocomb's Avatar
      *Really want to take the Bears
      *Never pick a game involving the Bears
      *Mustn't take the Bears
      *Thou shall not jinx the Bears

      Gimme the Chargers
    1. iwatt's Avatar
      Quote Originally Posted by Brian Williams View Post
      Obviously he's not the same type of player, but I remember back to Kaepernick's first start, also against the Bears. Not much was expected, but he performed lights out, and never did give the job back to Alex Smith.

      Perhaps Osweiler is bad, but isn't it just as likely he ends up looking really good? The most likely outcome is that he's ok, but really, anything is on the table at this point. And as I briefly touched on in WC, if he meets his 90th percentile expectancy, gives Denver an offensive jolt, and allows Demaryius Thomas to look like DeMaryius Thomas again, does Peyton get the job back when he's ready, or is there an outside chance Osweiler can strangle-hold this thing?
      Well, at least Fox and Gase have a better understanding of what Osweiler he is.

      The Bears D has played well lately, but the secondary is living off making great pass defenses, instead of tight coverage. At some point that will bite us (Fuller and Porter diving to deflect a ball, bounce off Demaryus Thomas who will run into the end zone).
      The Bears can't stop the inside run well (not enough depth at NT and Goldman is a rookie). The inside linebacker corps looks at least competent, which given what happened sans Urlacher and the corpse of Briggs is a sight for sore eyes. Houston, McPhee and Acho make for an interesting rotation (Acho is the best cover OLB they have). the DEs look decent but not world breakers. The safety play is finally competent. The Pass rush isn't thre, and that's mostly because the DEs aen't really that good at putting interior pressure, so teams can double McPhee.
    1. jhinkamp's Avatar
      colts
    1. Raven's Avatar
      Colts
    1. Rich Gapinski's Avatar
      Skins. I'm insane
    1. Matt Kocsan's Avatar
      The Bears, please.