• An Imperfect Analysis of the 2016 Draft


    Let's be honest about something going into this. I call this an "imperfect" analysis of the 2016 NFL Draft, but it's not as though there is any such thing as a perfect analysis of a draft without having several years of data and results with which to form conclusions. So while there are probably better ways to gauge how a team did in the draft, just remember that all that means is that you're being lied to a little less.

    Anyway, this year one thing I did as part of my preparation was put together a consensus big board that I could use to compare against my own personal prospect rankings. I did this by selecting a handful of rankings that were published by outlets whose opinions I respect, and then taking their combined player rankings and averaging them out to get a more complete sense of where the top prospects in this class stood. The boards that I used for this were as follows:

    - NFL Draft Scout/CBS Sports
    - Scouts Inc./ESPN
    - Scott Wright/Draft Countdown
    - DraftTek

    Using these rankings I assembled a Top 300, and from there I figured I could use that to run a simple mathematical analysis of how each team performed in the Draft just in terms of acquiring value with each pick. I simply added together the total rankings of each prospect that a team selected (all players outside the Top 300 were assigned a value of 301) and then divided that total by the total number of selections that a team made. This method doesn't account for team needs or when a player was selected, but it does a decent enough job of demonstrating which teams were able to maximize the value of their picks. So here they are in order, from most value to least value, where the lower number represents higher value:

    1. New York Giants - 79.00 - Six Selections - Top 100 Players: 4 - Non-Top 300 Players: 0
    2. Buffalo Bills - 91.57 - Seven Selections - Top 100 Players: 3 - Non-Top 300 Players: 0
    3. Houston Texans - 107.00 - Six Selections - Top 100 Players: 3 - Non Top 300 Players: 0
    4. New Orleans Saints - 107.80 - Five Selections - Top 100 Players: 3 - Non-Top 300 Players: 0
    5. Oakland Raiders - 111.86 - Seven Selections - Top 100 Players: 5 - Non-Top 300 Players: 1
    6. Cincinnati Bengals - 119.29 - Seven Selections - Top 100 Players: 4 - Non-Top 300 Players: 0
    7. Chicago Bears - 123.00 - Nine Selections - Top 100 Players: 4 - Non-Top 300 Players: 0
    8. Carolina Panthers - 129.20 - Five Selections - Top 100 Players: 2 - Non-Top 300 Players: 0
    9. Baltimore Ravens - 130.73 - Eleven Selections - Top 100 Players: 5 - Non-Top 300 Players: 1
    10. Green Bay Packers - 133.00 - Seven Selections - Top 100 Players: 3 - Non-Top 300 Players: 0
    11. Jacksonville Jaguars - 133.57 - Seven Selections - Top 100 Players: 3 - Non-Top 300 Players: 1
    12. Pittsburgh Steelers - 135.58 - Seven Selections - Top 100 Players: 3 - Non-Top 300 Players: 0
    13. Los Angeles Rams - 136.17 - Six Selections - Top 100 Players: 2 - Non-Top 300 Players: 0
    14. San Francisco 49ers - 137.55 - Eleven Selections - Top 100 Players: 4 - Non-Top 300 Players: 1
    15. Minnesota Vikings - 139.50 - Eight Selections - Top 100 Players: 3 - Non-Top 300 Players: 0
    16. Washington Football Club - 144.14 - Seven Selections - Top 100 Players: 3 - Non-Top 300 Players: 0
    17. Tennessee Titans - 144.70 - Ten Selections - Top 100 Players: 4 - Non-Top 300 Players: 2
    18. Seattle Seahawks - 147.70 - Ten Selections - Top 100 Players: 4 - Non-Top 300 Players: 2
    19. Miami Dolphins - 148.88 - Eight Selections - Top 100 Players: 3 - Non-Top 300 Players: 1
    20. Indianapolis Colts - 150.25 - Eight Selections - Top 100 Players: 1 - Non-Top 300 Players: 1
    21. Cleveland Browns - 156.07 - Fourteen Selections - Top 100 Players: 5 - Non-Top 300 Players: 2
    22. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 156.14 - Seven Selections - Top 100 Players: 2 - Non-Top 300 Players: 1
    23. New York Jets - 158.71 - Seven Selections - Top 100 Players: 3 - Non-Top 300 Players: 2
    24. Dallas Cowboys - 161.00 - Nine Selections - Top 100 Players: 4 - Non-Top 300 Players: 2
    25. San Diego Chargers - 162.13 - Eight Selections - Top 100 Players: 3 - Non-Top 300 Players: 1
    26. Atlanta Falcons - 165.50 - Six Selections - Top 100 Players: 3 - Non-Top 300 Players: 2
    27. Kansas City Chiefs - 170.44 - Nine Selections - Top 100 Players: 2 - Non-Top 300 Players: 1
    28. Denver Broncos - 175.25 - Eight Selections - Top 100 Players: 2 - Non-Top 300 Players: 3
    29. Detroit Lions - 178.10 - Ten Selections - Top 100 Players: 2 - Non-Top 300 Players: 4
    30. Arizona Cardinals - 179.50 - Six Selections - Top 100 Players: 1 - Non-Top 300 Players: 2
    31. Philadelphia Eagles - 190.38 - Eight Selections - Top 100 Players: 2 - Non-Top 300 Players: 2
    32. New England Patriots - 225.33 - Nine Selections - Top 100 Players: 1 - Non-Top 300 Players: 4

    Comments 3 Comments
    1. Ragar's Avatar
      Did you look at the divide this by the sum total of their draft slot? (and multiply by whatever factor to get positive numbers) for value to slot? and it not matter? or just too complicated?
    1. ScottDCP's Avatar
      Most interesting. It points out how subjective my assessments are. I like it.
    1. Evan Vracar's Avatar
      Quote Originally Posted by Ragar View Post
      Did you look at the divide this by the sum total of their draft slot? (and multiply by whatever factor to get positive numbers) for value to slot? and it not matter? or just too complicated?
      I wasn't trying to get that in-depth with it, although that would be an interesting extra step to take.