• FP 2016 Upset Special Challenge: Week Seven or the Epic Terribadness which is the Detroit Lions Defense


    Sooooo... Time for a little Biggie Venting Session.

    My Lions are really, really bad on defense. No, No. I mean It may end up as the worst NFL defense ever charted by the guys over at Football Outsiders..

    Allow me to share with you some excerpts from the above-linked Pride of Detroit fanpost by a commenter who rolls by the handle LogicalFallacy.

    While the traditional statistics paint a bleak picture of a painfully overmatched defense, they only begin to tell the story of just what a dismal failure this defense is. The following advanced metrics tell the story, not of a patient in need of some healing, but one that has already been shipped to the morgue.

    NFL quarterbacks throw for a passer rating of 119.3 against the 2016 Lions. This is the worst passer rating allowed by a defense in NFL history. As in, ever. No team has ever been worse at defending the pass.

    Ok, that's just one bad stat. But maybe it's an outlier? And maybe bridges just collapse on their own? Football Outsiders calculates how effective defenses are on a play-by-play basis. They also adjust this for the opponents played. The Lions defense currently sits at +26.1. This is tied with the 2015 New Orleans Saints for the worst defense Football Outsiders has ever analyzed (beginning in 1989).

    Somehow, it gets worse.

    On average, when an opponent gets the ball they gain 41.6 yards on the Lions defense. This is the most yards allowed per drive of any NFL team since Football Outsiders began tracking the statistic in 1997.

    On average, opposing teams score 2.78 points per drive against the Lions. This is the most points allowed per drive of any NFL team since Football Outsiders began tracking the statistic in 1997.

    On average opposing teams score touchdowns on 32.7% of their drives. This is the most touchdowns allowed per drive of any NFL team since Football Outsiders began tracking the statistic in 1997.

    On average opposing teams score 6.05 points on drives in which they reach the red zone. This is the most points allowed in the red zone of any NFL team since Football Outsiders began tracking the statistic in 1997.

    These statistics go on and on. Advanced metrics say that, by numerous measures, the 2016 Lions have the worst defense in the NFL in recent history (if not in all of NFL history).

    So why would traditional metrics, like points and yards allowed, show that the Lions defense is bad, but not that bad? The answer is that the Lions offense is performing at a heroic level to mask the utter awfulness of the defense.

    The more possessions an NFL team has, the more opportunity they have to score. An NFL defense has to defend the opposing offense on 11.25 drives per game, on average. One way to protect a lousy defense is to do everything you can to keep your offense on the field as long as possible to reduce the number of possessions each team has in a game.

    The Detroit Lions defense has only had to defend 9.1 possessions per game - the fewest drives per game any NFL defense has had to defend since Football Outsiders began tracking the stat in 1997. Why? Because the Lions offense is averaging 37.67 yards per drive (4th best in the NFL), 2.57 points per drive (4th), 3 minutes and 23 seconds time of possession per drive (2nd), and 6.94 plays per drive (2nd). Opponents have a very hard time getting the Lions offense off the field. The Lions defense has even more trouble getting opposing offenses off the field. As a result, Lions games feature time-consuming, offensively successful drives with very few punts and, consequently, very few possessions for each team.

    The Lions offense is doing such a magnificent job of protecting the defense that the defense is on pace to only defend 147 drives over a 16 game season. The San Francisco defense has already had to defend 77 drives because of their ineffective, fast-paced offense. If this Lions defense had faced 77 opponent drives through six games with the same yards and points allowed per drive they currently give up then they would be allowing 534 yards and 35.7 points per game which would easily be the worst marks in NFL history.

    The 2016 Lions defense is not just bad. Currently, it is the worst defense to ever set foot on an NFL field. The offense is keeping everyone from realizing just how bad the defense is like a can air freshener masking the smell of a pile of rotting garbage.
    Oh.
    My.
    God.

    My eyeballs and the bowl of scrambled eggs I call a brain told me they were terribad. The numbers show it's worse than that.

    Let get down to business. After a couple weeks which saw some high win totals, week six ended with only four winners.

    Cowboys (+4) -- Biggie, xmenehune
    Saints (+3) -- Rich, Amy

    That^ begets this. RichG sez:

    Quote Originally Posted by Rich Gapinski View Post
    Making for a heck of a race so far.

    NAME TTL
    Hobbes27 4.150
    Biggie 4.150
    Amy 4.135
    Raven 4.125
    Rich G 3.130
    Brian 3.115
    Ragar 3.100
    Chris 2.110
    ScottDCP 1.060
    Afrocomb 1.050
    xmenehune 1.040
    Matt K 1.035
    jhinkamp 1.030
    Thanks, Rich.

    We're on to Week Seven.


    Rules:
    • One pick per week
    • Your chosen team must be at least a (+3) underdog (Only games listed in this column are eligible)
    • Your chosen team must win the game outright (no 'pushes' or 'covers')
    • Season winner is the one with the most upsets correctly chosen between Week #1 through the Conference Championship Games (20 weeks all together)
    • There will be a points system to determine a winner in the event of a tie
    • Points will be accumulated by adding the game spreads for your correct picks (if you take Carolina (+4.5) and Carolina wins, you will be awarded a win and 4.5 points). Be careful making picks based on the number of points possible. Points only count if you are tied for the total wins lead when the whole contest is finished.
    • The No Upsets Option: Predict correctly that 'No Upsets' will occur in any given week and you will be awarded one win and a point total equal to the sum of all the spreads in that week's Upset Special. If you wish to exercise the 'No Upsets' Option, that prediction is due by 5 minutes prior to kickoff of the first game of the week in question. This includes Thursday Night Football or Saturday games. The 'No Upsets' option is confined to the Upset Possibilities listed in this article.
    • Picks are due no later than 5 minutes before the scheduled start of the broadcast time for your game. The FootballPros.com time stamp on your post is gospel.
    • Spread lines, once posted, will remain static throughout the week. This isn't The Sports Book at Caesar's Palace, after all.
    Let's. Get it. ON!!

    Week #7 Upset Special Possibilities

    Odds by OddsShark.
    All times Eastern.
    Underdogs in bold.

    Thursday Night Football
    • Bears (+9) @ Packers

    Sunday 9:30 AM Eastern, London Game
    • Giants vs. Rams (+3)

    Sunday 1:00 Games
    • Bills @ [Dolphins (+3)
    • Colts (+3) @ Titans
    • Saints (+6.5) @ Chiefs
    • Browns (+10) @ Bengals
    • Vikings @ Eagles (+3)

    Sunday 4:15 Games
    • Chargers (+6) Falcons
    • Steelers (+8) Patriots

    Sunday Night Football (8:20 PM)
    • OFF

    Monday Night Football (8:30 PM)
    • Texans (+9.5) @ Broncos

    Biggie's Week #7 Upset Special: Gimme the Chargers (+6)

    Comments 26 Comments
    1. Brian Williams's Avatar
      Watch out for the PA home dogs this week... The Steelers tried to get too cute last week, and Haley has something up his sleeve with Lev Bell, who's going to be a monster. Remember the game with Arizona last year with Landry under center.

      But no, I can't do it. Instead, I'll hang myself tonight on the back of Brian Hoyer.

      Da Bears (+9)
    1. Brian Williams's Avatar
      Is there anything more predictable than me taking the Bears on the arm of Brian Hoyer in GB, only to have him replaced by Matt Barkley? Aaron Rodgers has not played well, but if he loses to Barkley, he should retire on the spot.
    1. Raven's Avatar
      Rams +3
    1. ScottDCP's Avatar
      Colts
    1. Afrocomb's Avatar
      Rams
    1. Rich Gapinski's Avatar
      Bears might go 1-15. Eh, maybe beat the Niners on Dec 4. 2-14.

      Okay, so what result makes the least sense?

      How about Browns +10? Yep, I'm doing it.
    1. chris's Avatar
      eagles
    1. Amy's Avatar
      So, earlier this week, I peeked at my dynasty team and realized that I had an issue:

      My QB (Cam) is on bye, my backup (Dak) is on bye. My #3 (Jimmy G) better not play! So, I had a QB for the week, and I went with Case Keenum for the 1 week start.

      So let's double down.

      I'm going all aboard the Jeff Fisher express for the first time ever. Give me the Rams
    1. hobbes27's Avatar
      Gimme the Colts.
    1. xmenehune's Avatar
      I'm tempted by no upsets, SD and MIA... not much to pick from so here's going against the logic of being lucky two weeks in a row...
      it's the 'fins to win... MIA
    1. Ragar's Avatar
      Browns
    1. Matt Kocsan's Avatar
      Saints, please.
    1. Nancy's Avatar
      My Lions are really, really bad on defense. No, No. I mean It may end up as the worst NFL defense ever charted by the guys over at Football Outsiders..
      Dude, how can they be worse than the Panthers? I mean.....just.....HOW???
    1. Patrick Sullivan's Avatar
      Quote Originally Posted by Nancy View Post
      Dude, how can they be worse than the Panthers? I mean.....just.....HOW???
      • Garbage LB play
      • Secondary an absolute sieve
      • Haloti Ngata hurt ALL THE FREAKING TIME
      • Deandre Levy HURT ALL THE FREAKING TIME
      • Ziggy Ansah and his (unreported) high ankle sprain
      • Glover Quin forgetting how to play football
      • Tahir Whitehead being a ****ty MLB
      • NOT ****ING DRAFTING AARON FREAKING DONALD WHEN HE WAS RIGHT THERE FOR THE TAKING AND TAKING THE HUMAN ACE BANDAGE THAT IS ERIC ****ING EBRON INSTEAD


      ^That, for starters.
    1. Rich Gapinski's Avatar
      Quote Originally Posted by Patrick Sullivan View Post
      • Garbage LB play
      • Secondary an absolute sieve
      • Haloti Ngata hurt ALL THE FREAKING TIME
      • Deandre Levy HURT ALL THE FREAKING TIME
      • Ziggy Ansah and his (unreported) high ankle sprain
      • Glover Quin forgetting how to play football
      • Tahir Whitehead being a ****ty MLB
      • NOT ****ING DRAFTING AARON FREAKING DONALD WHEN HE WAS RIGHT THERE FOR THE TAKING AND TAKING THE HUMAN ACE BANDAGE THAT IS ERIC ****ING EBRON INSTEAD


      ^That, for starters.
      May I submit Matt Barkley and no good draft picks outside of Kyle Long from the last five seasons?
    1. Patrick Sullivan's Avatar
      Oh, and screw the eyeballs out of the Buckeyes for losing to PSU yesterday. The Game should have seen two undefeateds square off for all the marbles.

      Bastards.
    1. Rich Gapinski's Avatar
      Quote Originally Posted by Patrick Sullivan View Post
      Oh, and screw the eyeballs out of the Buckeyes for losing to PSU yesterday. The Game should have seen two undefeateds square off for all the marbles.

      Bastards.
      The first Cooper-like loss of the Urrrbbbb era. Really pissed off about it, actually. Now, the only route is to ruin Harbs' perfect season and then win the next week, too. Unless you are trying to tie or win the game and only have 11 seconds to rush a field goal team on, I will never support hurrying the FG team on for any other reason. It was even worse when considering the ST play (previous blocked punt, muffed punt on a return) and the weather during the game. Look, if the kid still makes the great play, so be it; but I will not be convinced that the timing did not have something to do with it.

      Even if you aren't confident in the deep ball, you have to give some real shots at it before the final drive. Chris Samuel was the best player on the field and had 10 total touches on offense. I didn't see a single slant thrown in the final 10 minutes despite Penn State solely run gap assignments and wide 9 blitzes. I get that I am a nobody on a couch without the knowledge of being in the huddle, but this sh** should not be so obvious.

      Oh, and that was blatant PI on the one deep ball on the final drive, but they should not have left themselves in that situation after being up 14 in the final quarter.

      Go Tribe.
    1. Patrick Sullivan's Avatar
      Go Tribe, indeed.
    1. Matt Kocsan's Avatar
      Everything Rich said about Ohio State: they squandered way too many opportunities to put the game away; they really need to start clearing safeties out by taking shots down the field so they can open up some space either in the catch-and-run intermediate passing game, thereby getting those linebackers off the LOS; and sweet Christ, even if you think you can run a field goal unit onto the field in the allotted time, that kick in that situation was important enough to burn a timeout. If Ohio State wins out, that Michigan game is for all the marbles and is probably for a playoff berth, but bluntly, the Buckeyes really need to improve on offense if they're going to beat Michigan this year. The defense is fine.

      And Lord, please, go Tribe.
    1. Brian Williams's Avatar