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Sooooo... Time for a little Biggie Venting Session.
My Lions are really, really bad on defense. No, No. I mean It may end up as the worst NFL defense ever charted by the guys over at Football Outsiders..
Allow me to share with you some excerpts from the above-linked Pride of Detroit fanpost by a commenter who rolls by the handle LogicalFallacy.
While the traditional statistics paint a bleak picture of a painfully overmatched defense, they only begin to tell the story of just what a dismal failure this defense is. The following advanced metrics tell the story, not of a patient in need of some healing, but one that has already been shipped to the morgue.
NFL quarterbacks throw for a passer rating of 119.3 against the 2016 Lions. This is the worst passer rating allowed by a defense in NFL history. As in, ever. No team has ever been worse at defending the pass.
Ok, that's just one bad stat. But maybe it's an outlier? And maybe bridges just collapse on their own? Football Outsiders calculates how effective defenses are on a play-by-play basis. They also adjust this for the opponents played. The Lions defense currently sits at +26.1. This is tied with the 2015 New Orleans Saints for the worst defense Football Outsiders has ever analyzed (beginning in 1989).
Somehow, it gets worse.
On average, when an opponent gets the ball they gain 41.6 yards on the Lions defense. This is the most yards allowed per drive of any NFL team since Football Outsiders began tracking the statistic in 1997.
On average, opposing teams score 2.78 points per drive against the Lions. This is the most points allowed per drive of any NFL team since Football Outsiders began tracking the statistic in 1997.
On average opposing teams score touchdowns on 32.7% of their drives. This is the most touchdowns allowed per drive of any NFL team since Football Outsiders began tracking the statistic in 1997.
On average opposing teams score 6.05 points on drives in which they reach the red zone. This is the most points allowed in the red zone of any NFL team since Football Outsiders began tracking the statistic in 1997.
These statistics go on and on. Advanced metrics say that, by numerous measures, the 2016 Lions have the worst defense in the NFL in recent history (if not in all of NFL history).
So why would traditional metrics, like points and yards allowed, show that the Lions defense is bad, but not that bad? The answer is that the Lions offense is performing at a heroic level to mask the utter awfulness of the defense.
The more possessions an NFL team has, the more opportunity they have to score. An NFL defense has to defend the opposing offense on 11.25 drives per game, on average. One way to protect a lousy defense is to do everything you can to keep your offense on the field as long as possible to reduce the number of possessions each team has in a game.
The Detroit Lions defense has only had to defend 9.1 possessions per game - the fewest drives per game any NFL defense has had to defend since Football Outsiders began tracking the stat in 1997. Why? Because the Lions offense is averaging 37.67 yards per drive (4th best in the NFL), 2.57 points per drive (4th), 3 minutes and 23 seconds time of possession per drive (2nd), and 6.94 plays per drive (2nd). Opponents have a very hard time getting the Lions offense off the field. The Lions defense has even more trouble getting opposing offenses off the field. As a result, Lions games feature time-consuming, offensively successful drives with very few punts and, consequently, very few possessions for each team.
The Lions offense is doing such a magnificent job of protecting the defense that the defense is on pace to only defend 147 drives over a 16 game season. The San Francisco defense has already had to defend 77 drives because of their ineffective, fast-paced offense. If this Lions defense had faced 77 opponent drives through six games with the same yards and points allowed per drive they currently give up then they would be allowing 534 yards and 35.7 points per game which would easily be the worst marks in NFL history.
The 2016 Lions defense is not just bad. Currently, it is the worst defense to ever set foot on an NFL field. The offense is keeping everyone from realizing just how bad the defense is like a can air freshener masking the smell of a pile of rotting garbage.
NFL quarterbacks throw for a passer rating of 119.3 against the 2016 Lions. This is the worst passer rating allowed by a defense in NFL history. As in, ever. No team has ever been worse at defending the pass.
Ok, that's just one bad stat. But maybe it's an outlier? And maybe bridges just collapse on their own? Football Outsiders calculates how effective defenses are on a play-by-play basis. They also adjust this for the opponents played. The Lions defense currently sits at +26.1. This is tied with the 2015 New Orleans Saints for the worst defense Football Outsiders has ever analyzed (beginning in 1989).
Somehow, it gets worse.
On average, when an opponent gets the ball they gain 41.6 yards on the Lions defense. This is the most yards allowed per drive of any NFL team since Football Outsiders began tracking the statistic in 1997.
On average, opposing teams score 2.78 points per drive against the Lions. This is the most points allowed per drive of any NFL team since Football Outsiders began tracking the statistic in 1997.
On average opposing teams score touchdowns on 32.7% of their drives. This is the most touchdowns allowed per drive of any NFL team since Football Outsiders began tracking the statistic in 1997.
On average opposing teams score 6.05 points on drives in which they reach the red zone. This is the most points allowed in the red zone of any NFL team since Football Outsiders began tracking the statistic in 1997.
These statistics go on and on. Advanced metrics say that, by numerous measures, the 2016 Lions have the worst defense in the NFL in recent history (if not in all of NFL history).
So why would traditional metrics, like points and yards allowed, show that the Lions defense is bad, but not that bad? The answer is that the Lions offense is performing at a heroic level to mask the utter awfulness of the defense.
The more possessions an NFL team has, the more opportunity they have to score. An NFL defense has to defend the opposing offense on 11.25 drives per game, on average. One way to protect a lousy defense is to do everything you can to keep your offense on the field as long as possible to reduce the number of possessions each team has in a game.
The Detroit Lions defense has only had to defend 9.1 possessions per game - the fewest drives per game any NFL defense has had to defend since Football Outsiders began tracking the stat in 1997. Why? Because the Lions offense is averaging 37.67 yards per drive (4th best in the NFL), 2.57 points per drive (4th), 3 minutes and 23 seconds time of possession per drive (2nd), and 6.94 plays per drive (2nd). Opponents have a very hard time getting the Lions offense off the field. The Lions defense has even more trouble getting opposing offenses off the field. As a result, Lions games feature time-consuming, offensively successful drives with very few punts and, consequently, very few possessions for each team.
The Lions offense is doing such a magnificent job of protecting the defense that the defense is on pace to only defend 147 drives over a 16 game season. The San Francisco defense has already had to defend 77 drives because of their ineffective, fast-paced offense. If this Lions defense had faced 77 opponent drives through six games with the same yards and points allowed per drive they currently give up then they would be allowing 534 yards and 35.7 points per game which would easily be the worst marks in NFL history.
The 2016 Lions defense is not just bad. Currently, it is the worst defense to ever set foot on an NFL field. The offense is keeping everyone from realizing just how bad the defense is like a can air freshener masking the smell of a pile of rotting garbage.
My.
God.
My eyeballs and the bowl of scrambled eggs I call a brain told me they were terribad. The numbers show it's worse than that.
Let get down to business. After a couple weeks which saw some high win totals, week six ended with only four winners.
Cowboys (+4) -- Biggie, xmenehune
Saints (+3) -- Rich, Amy
That^ begets this. RichG sez:
Originally Posted by Rich Gapinski
We're on to Week Seven.
Rules:
- One pick per week
- Your chosen team must be at least a (+3) underdog (Only games listed in this column are eligible)
- Your chosen team must win the game outright (no 'pushes' or 'covers')
- Season winner is the one with the most upsets correctly chosen between Week #1 through the Conference Championship Games (20 weeks all together)
- There will be a points system to determine a winner in the event of a tie
- Points will be accumulated by adding the game spreads for your correct picks (if you take Carolina (+4.5) and Carolina wins, you will be awarded a win and 4.5 points). Be careful making picks based on the number of points possible. Points only count if you are tied for the total wins lead when the whole contest is finished.
- The No Upsets Option: Predict correctly that 'No Upsets' will occur in any given week and you will be awarded one win and a point total equal to the sum of all the spreads in that week's Upset Special. If you wish to exercise the 'No Upsets' Option, that prediction is due by 5 minutes prior to kickoff of the first game of the week in question. This includes Thursday Night Football or Saturday games. The 'No Upsets' option is confined to the Upset Possibilities listed in this article.
- Picks are due no later than 5 minutes before the scheduled start of the broadcast time for your game. The FootballPros.com time stamp on your post is gospel.
- Spread lines, once posted, will remain static throughout the week. This isn't The Sports Book at Caesar's Palace, after all.
Week #7 Upset Special Possibilities
Odds by OddsShark.
All times Eastern.
Underdogs in bold.
Thursday Night Football
- Bears (+9) @ Packers
Sunday 9:30 AM Eastern, London Game
- Giants vs. Rams (+3)
Sunday 1:00 Games
- Bills @ [Dolphins (+3)
- Colts (+3) @ Titans
- Saints (+6.5) @ Chiefs
- Browns (+10) @ Bengals
- Vikings @ Eagles (+3)
Sunday 4:15 Games
- Chargers (+6) Falcons
- Steelers (+8) Patriots
Sunday Night Football (8:20 PM)
- OFF
Monday Night Football (8:30 PM)
- Texans (+9.5) @ Broncos
Biggie's Week #7 Upset Special: Gimme the Chargers (+6)
