• FP 2016 Upset Special Challenge: The Essence of this Contest or Your Divisional Playoff Round Open Thread

    by
    Patrick Sullivan
    Published on 01-12-2017 07:45 PM
    33 Comments Comments

    Dagnabbit, Raven...

    She ran my big ugly ass down. It appears we have a new leader poised to become the first two-time winner in the FP Upset Special's now seven-year run.

    Congrats, J. It's always good to get hot at the right time. Time to slug it out. You see, I also am gaming to be the first two-time champ.

    RichG sez:
    Quote Originally Posted by Rich Gapinski View Post
    Which, for the first time in a long time..... gives us a new leader:

    Name TTL
    Raven 9.565
    Biggie 9.400
    Chris 7.355
    Brian 7.350
    Hobbes27 7.250
    Amy 7.245
    Rich G 6.490
    Matt K 6.305
    ScottDCP 5.195
    xmenehune 4.170
    Ragar 4.130
    Afrocomb 3.140
    jhinkamp 3.115
    Thanks, Rich.

    Let's boogie. Jiminy Flippin' Cupcakes, we have a 16-POINT 'DOG THIS WEEK. I dare ya. Nah. I Triple Dog Dare ya.

    Rules:
    • One pick per week
    • Your chosen team must be at least a (+2) underdog (Only games listed in this column are eligible)
    • Your chosen team must win the game outright (no 'pushes' or 'covers')
    • Season winner is the one with the most upsets correctly chosen between Week #1 through the Conference Championship Games (20 weeks all together)
    • There will be a points system to determine a winner in the event of a tie
    • Points will be accumulated by adding the game spreads for your correct picks (if you take Carolina (+4.5) and Carolina wins, you will be awarded a win and 4.5 points). Be careful making picks based on the number of points possible. Points only count if you are tied for the total wins lead when the whole contest is finished.
    • The No Upsets Option: Predict correctly that 'No Upsets' will occur in any given week and you will be awarded one win and a point total equal to the sum of all the spreads in that week's Upset Special. If you wish to exercise the 'No Upsets' Option, that prediction is due by 5 minutes prior to kickoff of the first game of the week in question. This includes Saturday games. The 'No Upsets' option is confined to the Upset Possibilities listed in this article.
    • The All Upsets Option: Predict correctly that 'All Upsets' will occur in any given playoff week and you will be awarded one win and a point total equal to the sum of all the spreads in that week's Upset Special. If you wish to exercise the 'All Upsets' Option, that prediction is due by 5 minutes prior to kickoff of the first game of the week in question. The 'All Upsets' option is confined to the Upset Possibilities listed in this article.
    • Picks are due no later than 5 minutes before the scheduled start of the broadcast time for your game. The FootballPros.com time stamp on your post is gospel.
    • Spread lines, once posted, will remain static throughout the week. This isn't The Sports Book at Caesar's Palace, after all.

    Odds by OddsShark.
    All times Eastern.
    Underdogs in bold.

    2016 Divisional Round Upset Special Possibilities

    Saturday, January 14, 2017 4:35 PM
    • Seahawks (+5) @ Falcons

    Saturday, January 14, 2017 8:15 PM
    • Texans (+16) @ Patriots

    Sunday, January 15, 2017 1:05 PM
    • OFF ** Per the rules, as of this writing, this is a game wearing a 1-point spread. If that changes between now and Sunday, tough. The game is off the board in this contest. Sorry. Rules is rules.

    Sunday, January 15, 2017 4:40 PM
    • Packers (+4.5) @ Cowboys

    Biggie's 2016 Divisional Round Upset Special: I am down to the 'Hawks and the Pack. Probably would have gone Steelers if the game were available.... Gonna have to make a pick in the forum.
    Gimme the Not the Texans. Definitely not the Texans.

    Comments 33 Comments
    Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast
    1. ScottDCP's Avatar
      Hawks
      Reply
    1. Afrocomb's Avatar
      Packers
      Reply
    1. Rich Gapinski's Avatar
      Instant Classic Alert. I'm going with Rodgers and The Pack over the 'Boys in a 37-35 barn-burner.
      Reply
    1. Matt Kocsan's Avatar
      I like the Cowboys, the Pats are an easy call, and I just don't trust Seattle away from home. Give me the no upsets sweep, please.
      Reply
    1. Brian Williams's Avatar
      Houston
      Reply
    1. chris's Avatar
      no upsets
      Reply
    1. Raven's Avatar
      You're going down Biggie! 😜 I didn't think I'd catch up, but I went on a roll again. I'm going with the Packers this week. I was tempted with no upsets, but don't like the odds of that happening again.
      Reply
    1. Amy's Avatar
      As this is an open thread for the week, first I have to make my pick:

      No upsets

      Next, I want to roll my eyes at the Chargers move. Sometimes I wonder what NFL owners are doing when they make decisions.

      Finally, I want to thank the Bills, Jags, Broncos, Rams, and Chargers for not being patient! At worst, and that's only if Josh decides to go to the toxic mess of the 49ers management, we'll lose just 1 of our 2 coordinators. I hope that McDaniels gets another HC shot, just not there.

      Why does this happen every year? Is there some book NFL owners/GMs are hypnotized by? "Let's not wait a few days/weeks for a coordinator to get out of the playoffs, lets hire someone who didn't even make it there, cause he'll be the guy." Maybe some of them will be, maybe one of those hires will do well. But. I'm happy to not be losing Matt and with any luck, not losing Josh either.
      Reply
    1. hobbes27's Avatar
      Quote Originally Posted by Amy View Post
      As this is an open thread for the week, first I have to make my pick:

      No upsets

      Next, I want to roll my eyes at the Chargers move. Sometimes I wonder what NFL owners are doing when they make decisions.
      My pick is also no upsets.

      Chargers are moving to LA because they will make more money in LA in the long-term. It makes perfect sense from a financial standpoint.
      Reply
    1. Brian Williams's Avatar
      Quote Originally Posted by Brian Williams View Post
      Houston
      Historically speaking, there will be at least one upset this weekend, and at least one of the teams that played last weekend will be going to the Super Bowl. Since the playoffs expanded to include 6 teams (and 2 WC games) per conference in 1990, the home teams have swept the WC round 3 different times. On all 3 occasions (2000, 2006, 2011) a team that played that weekend went on to win the Super Bowl.

      Predictably, all 3 of those teams-- 2000 Ravens (+6), 2006 Colts (+4), 2011 Giants (+8)-- were underdogs in the Divisional round.

      All of that may mean nothing when it comes to the particular vat of games related to this thread, especially since one of our options is off the board, considered by Vegas to be a veritable toss-up. But something is going down this weekend.

      The Texans have the league's top defense when it comes to yards allowed. The Patriots have allowed the fewest points. The last time the top yardage defense met the top scoring defense in the playoffs was in the Divisional round in 2000. The Ravens won that game on the road over the defending AFC Champ Titans, and went on to win the Super Bowl.

      Is Trent Dilfer vs. Peak-Steve McNair at his apex really that much less of a QB mismatch than Brock Osweiler vs. Tom Br... yes... yes it is.

      And while never doesn't necessarily mean won't, we've still yet to see an NFL team play in the same Super Bowl it's hosting. So I probably need to find another angle...

      ROOKIE QBs

      During the Super Bowl era, 20 rookie QBs have started a playoff game. 9 have won at least one game, and 2 (Joe Flacco and Mark Sanchez) have won multiple games. Russell Wilson is the last rookie QB to win a playoff game, but that came in 2012 against fellow rookie Robert Griffin III. In 2011 T.J. Yates also pulled off the feat against a fellow rookie in Andy Dalton. As for the others...

      2009- Mark Sanchez over Carson Palmer
      2008- Joe Flacco over Chad Pennington
      2004- Ben Roethlisberger over Chad Pennington
      2000- Aaron Brooks over Kurt Warner
      1999- Shaun King over Brad Johnson
      1985- Dieter Brock over Danny White
      1976- Pat Haden over Roger Staubach

      That's an interesting list that Chad Pennington will never want to stumble across. 4 teams (Cincinnati, Washington, NY Jets, Dallas) appear on the losing end of this list twice. We have one current (Staubach) and one future (Warner) HOFer represented, and each bookended their spot on this list with Super Bowl appearances.

      6 rookie QBs (Flacco, Sanchez, Big Ben, King, Brock, Haden) have gone to the Conference Championship game.

      ZERO have made the Super Bowl.

      Dak Prescott joins Ben Roethlisberger as the only rookies to lead their team to a #1 seed. Big Ben won his first game against Chad Pennington. Dak Prescott has to face a scorching hot Aaron Rodgers.

      Prescott over Rodgers would not be entirely unprecedented, but it would be close.


      Since something will happen this weekend, and I need to make a move if I want to win this thing, I'm sticking with the Texans. For now.
      Reply
    1. Patrick Sullivan's Avatar
      Welp. I have a choice to make.
      • I can go with the Pack and maintain pace with Raven.
      • I can go with No Upsets which would net me 25.5 points and and launch me back into the lead in both wins and points.
      • I can go with the Texans which would land me 16 points. If the Pack wins, also, Raven would still hold the lead by virtue of a 5-point lead and a tie in the win column. If they lose and Houston wins, I could hold the lead with 10 wins but still be behind by half a point. This would leave me vulnerable to another takeover.


      Hrmmmmm....

      You can go big or you can go home.

      No Upsets for the whole enchilada.
      Reply
    1. Amy's Avatar
      Great opening drive for Seattle. They use the first 8 and a half minutes of the first quarter and Graham gets a TD pass. 7-0 Seattle.
      Reply
    1. Patrick Sullivan's Avatar
      Wow. Looks like the 'Hawks are locked in on offense.

      Not good for those of us who went No Upsets this week...
      Reply
    1. Amy's Avatar
      Atlanta uses the rest of the quarter. The first quarter flew by.

      Atlanta ties the game with a TD to Julio with 14:14 left in the half.

      Here's an idea. Don't put the closest man to Julio 10 yards deep on 1st and goal from the 8.
      Reply
    1. Amy's Avatar
      Seattle strikes fast after a long kickoff return. A five play drive gets them deep into Falcon territory. They stall, however, and settle for a FG.

      10-7 Seattle, 11:20 left in the half.
      Reply
    1. Patrick Sullivan's Avatar
      1) Wilson has a very underrated arm.
      2) Maybe Seattle has finally figured out how to use Graham.
      3) I am very surprised we are not discussing a coaching change in Indy. I find it hard to believe a guy like Gruden could pass up a chance to coach Andrew Luck.
      4) Holy ****, Devin Hester.
      Reply
    1. Amy's Avatar
      Devin Hester is looking great. Maybe, just maybe, the Ravens were tooo fast to cut him after the Pats game.
      Reply
    1. Amy's Avatar
      re: Gruden,

      I don't think Chucky wants to coach anymore. I think he's happy in the booth.
      Reply
    1. Amy's Avatar
      Wilson falls down on the snap in the endzone. The center stepped on his foot. Safety.

      10-9 Seattle. 9:22 left in the half.
      Reply
    1. Amy's Avatar
      Atlanta's turn to stall out. They go for a field goal and they make it.

      12-10 Falcons. 6:06 left in the half.
      Reply
    Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast