Contributors
The 2017 Draft Analyzer is out and is available at this google doc link.
As we near the 2018 Draft, I'll be looking at a few things we learned in this version of the analysis.
Simply put, there are some teams out there that just aren't as good at the draft as they used to be. Unfortunately, our memories have created a bit of a historical bias when it comes to thinking about how well these teams draft. In no particular order:
1. BALTIMORE RAVENS
Code:
Baltimore Ravens YEAR PICKS ACTIVE OTHERS MISS BUST RND 1-4 RND 5+ START ROLE OFF DEF ST% ALL% WINS 2013 10 2 4 2 2 1 1 2 0 1 1 20% 20% 8 2014 9 5 2 1 1 3 2 1 4 3 2 11% 56% 10 P 2015 9 6 0 2 1 5 1 1 5 4 2 11% 67% 5 2016 11 10 1 0 0 8 2 3 7 4 6 27% 91% 8 2017 7 7 0 0 0 5 2 1 6 2 5 14% 100% 9 TOTALS 46 30 7 5 4 22 8 8 22 14 16 17% 65% 40
Ozzie Newsome has not had the touch in recent years that he had during his earliest days of his tenure. Arthur Brown, Matt Elam, and Breshad Perriman represent the highest amount of bust value considering their locations in the draft. Plus, the total for eight starters is deceiving. Chris Moore is not a star and is a good example of a player that would be replaceable, especially if the Ravens trade for Jarvis Landry. Matt Judon is not likely to be a Pro Bowl player, either. Yes, C.J. Mosley and Marlon Humphrey are impact players. Ronnie Stanley is also a long-term player. The Ravens are not among the dregs of the league, but it seems that Newsome has lost a bit off his fastball. When off-season articles are putting hopes into Chuck Clark, one knows that things are not exactly how they used to be.
2. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
Code:
Seattle Seahawks YEAR PICKS ACTIVE OTHERS MISS BUST RND 1-4 RND 5+ START ROLE OFF DEF ST% ALL% WINS 2013 11 1 3 6 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 0% 9% 13 WS 2014 9 2 4 3 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 22% 22% 12 LS 2015 8 3 4 0 1 3 0 0 3 2 1 0% 38% 10 P 2016 10 8 1 1 0 5 3 3 5 6 2 30% 80% 10 P 2017 11 10 0 1 0 7 3 0 10 4 6 0% 91% 9 TOTALS 49 24 12 11 2 17 7 5 19 15 9 10% 49% 54
What is interesting about the Seattle story is that they were not known for being particularly adept with high draft picks. We have all talked about the James Carpenter story. Guess what is worse? He isn't even in these numbers because he was a 2011 pick. I'm sorry. I got off the topic. The Seahawks built their dynasty (In modern terms, it probably was) with fantastic picks of players in late rounds and with signings off the streets. There are no Richard Shermans or Russell Wilsons from this group. There is a Wilson, though. That's Luke Willson, the lone remaining player from the universally bad 2013 Draft. He's set to be a free agent.
Like the Ravens, the starters that they do have are not impressive. Paul Richardson is probably not going to be on the team next year. Justin Britt will probably be the only guy left from the 2014 Draft. German Ifedi, Jarran Reed and Rees Odhiambo are not big names. Those are the 3 starters from the 2016 Draft. Odhiambo ended the year on IR.
So, what about those late round gems? Here is a non-encompassing list: Ty Powell, Jared Smith, Jimmy Staten, Kiero Small, Obum Gwacham (real name), Kenny Lawler and Alex Collins. There is not one impact player on that list. Also, I only listed Collins because he might have been that gem, but he isn't on the team any more. Where is he? Baltimore, of course. The Seahawks either got enamored with their own ability to produce value from unreliable areas or just got lucky in the past. After all, there are only 30 sixth and seventh round starters in the entire league. Those can't all be Seahawks. In fact, none of them are.
Russell Wilson keeps the entire team afloat. I guess that point didn't need much validation, but we found some more anyway.
3. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
Code:
New England Patriots YEAR PICKS ACTIVE OTHERS MISS BUST RND 1-4 RND 5+ START ROLE OFF DEF ST% ALL% WINS 2013 7 1 2 2 2 1 0 0 1 0 1 0% 14% 12 P 2014 9 2 4 2 1 2 0 1 1 2 0 11% 22% 12 WS 2015 11 6 1 3 1 5 1 5 1 2 4 45% 55% 12 P 2016 9 7 2 0 0 4 3 1 6 4 3 11% 78% 14 WS 2017 4 4 0 0 0 3 1 0 4 2 2 0% 100% 13 S TOTALS 40 20 9 7 4 15 5 7 13 10 10 18% 50% 63
For those who do not know the history of The Draft Analyzer, it was comments about Bill Belichick that got me to create the it. I got sick of hearing how great the Patriots were and I wanted to prove it. Back then, I learned that Hoodie's true genius was nothing more than volume drafting. He is probably the Godfather of it. Other teams have taken up his idea and tried to do it themselves. Those teams include the Browns, Seahawks, Niners and Vikings. They have had varying success or incomplete grades. He wasn't then, and isn't now, better than anyone else at developing his core, keeping players or avoiding busts. He just had more guys to weed through.
What's interesting about the Patriots is that Belichick may have showed a change in philosophy by trying to add players with picks in 2017 that could help him go for a couple Super Bowl runs before he retires. He simply did not trade for a player like Brandin Cooks in the past. He'd sign them, but he wouldn't use picks to get them. If I didn't include third wide receivers and a couple extra players as starters due to schemes, the Pats would have even less home drafted starters. Joe Cordona and James White are each included here. Next season, these stats will have a boost with Deatrich Wise Jr. making an impact by the end of the 2017 season.
When looking at these numbers, the appreciation for Belichick's on-field/preparation brilliance manages to grow. How is that possible?
4. MINNESOTA VIKINGS
Code:
Minnesota Vikings YEAR PICKS ACTIVE OTHERS MISS BUST RND 1-4 RND 5+ START ROLE OFF DEF ST% ALL% WINS 2013 9 2 3 4 0 2 0 1 1 0 2 11% 22% 5 2014 10 5 1 3 1 3 2 1 4 2 3 10% 50% 7 2015 10 7 2 1 0 4 3 4 3 3 4 40% 70% 11 P 2016 8 7 0 1 0 3 4 0 7 3 4 0% 88% 8 2017 11 11 0 0 0 4 7 1 10 6 5 9% 100% 13 C TOTALS 48 32 6 9 1 16 16 7 25 14 18 15% 67% 44
Obviously, it didn't help that Teddy Bridgewater got hurt. It hasn't helped that Laquon Treadwell is just a name on the team. Pat Elflein is likely to help the numbers next year. The Vikings have built a great team over time with smart moves and a great coach. It has not been as much about the draft as we think.
However, the Vikings have incredible depth and these numbers can change in one season. Maybe I shouldn't put so much emphasis on impact starters, but isn't that what the draft is all about? A team with impact starters on rookie contracts can pay for stars, extend current ones and have sustained success. A team without them end up overpaying or buying too free agents, stretching players into roles they should not be in, and make it harder to create a winning structure.
5. CLEVELAND BROWNS
Code:
Cleveland Browns YEAR PICKS ACTIVE OTHERS MISS BUST RND 1-4 RND 5+ START ROLE OFF DEF ST% ALL% WINS 2013 5 0 2 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0% 0% 4 2014 6 2 2 0 2 2 0 2 0 1 1 33% 33% 7 2015 12 4 6 2 0 3 1 2 2 2 2 17% 33% 3 2016 14 12 1 1 0 9 3 5 7 8 4 36% 86% 1 2017 10 10 0 0 0 6 4 4 6 6 4 40% 100% 0 TOTALS 47 28 11 6 2 20 8 13 15 17 11 28% 60% 15
I wanted to showcase the Browns somewhere and I am not sure where else I will get the opportunity. When I first did the analysis, the bad teams in the draft included the Browns, Bears, Chiefs and Rams. The Rams got better in every way the day Jeff Fisher left town. The Chiefs got Andy Reid. The Bears are still bad at drafting NFL Players. The Browns probably are, but they are so hard to evaluate because of the front office turnover. They probably need an extra three years from now before they get any grade besides "Incomplete."
Still, things don't look good. They tried their hand at volume drafts and have not seen much return yet. The 2015 Draft is probably not salvageable. Nate Orchard is probably going to be the best player out of that one. That puts more pressure on the 2016 Draft. If Corey Coleman isn't at least a 70 catch, 900 yard receiver with 6-7 scores this season, there will be more pressure on the 2017 Draft. And so goes the wheel. The Browns are a great example for what might be the worst possible situation. With front office turnover, new schemes every year, and horrible misses like Justin Gilbert and Johnny Manziel at the top of the draft, the team will not have a chance without more time. Plus, they have to get things right.
It doesn't look like that Hue Jackson is a good coach. When being a player's coach is the best thing people usually say about the guy in charge in this modern NFL, it probably means he isn't a great coach. Every coach needs to be a player's coach. Also, it ignores the fact that Jackson has spent a lot of time throwing his players under the bus when he oversaw a team that ignored the run despite scoring high in those metrics from places like Football Outsiders and PFF. It ignores the fact that the coaching staff put a young quarterback in position to throw another key interception late in a half or during a close game over and over again.
Should the Browns make my list of the five worst drafting teams in the last five years? Sure. But it feels pretty unfair to do so. In a lot of ways, they haven't had a chance.
