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NickMykita

2012 Predictions Revisited

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Back in July, I wrote a blog post about 3 predictions I had for the upcoming 2012 season. Now that the regular season has ended, I thought it would be a good idea to go back and see just how right (or mostly wrong) I was.

1. Tim Tebow will start AT LEAST 2 games for the New York Jets this season.
Result: INCORRECT
I truly believe if this had been any other team, Tebow would have replaced Sanchez much sooner. It was clear week after week that Sanchez was stinking up the place. The butt-fumble on Thanksgiving was the final straw for anyone who hadn't picked up on it yet. But the Jets, in keeping with their role as a circus disguised as a football team, refused to put in Tebow, choosing Greg McElroy instead. Not surprisingly Tebow expressed huge frustration at being passed over and now wants out, likely to Jacksonville. Officially this one was wrong, but I feel like it should never have come to this. I blame Rex Ryan for my incorrect pick.

2. The Cincinnati Bengals will return to the playoffs for a second straight year, but this time they will earn their way in, instead of backing in like 2011.
Result: MOSTLY CORRECT
I'm not going to give myself full credit for this one. They did return to the playoffs, something which had not been done in consecutive years since 1981-82, but it's hard to say they "earned it". Last year, as I mentioned in my post, the Bengals played 7 games against playoff-bound teams and didn't win any. This year, they did notch 2 wins against playoff teams (Washington and Baltimore), but they only had 4 games total against playoff teams (Baltimore twice, Washington, Denver). 75% of their schedule was against non-playoff teams, and they went 8-4 there, including two strange losses to Miami and Cleveland. They improved record-wise from last year (9-7 to 10-6), but really this should have been a 12-win team at least, given their soft schedule. So I get points for saying they'd make the playoffs, but I'm taking points away on their "earning it". And by the way, I fully expect the Bengals to lose this weekend against Houston in the Wild Card round.

3. The Cowboys will fail to make the playoffs for a third straight year, forcing Jerry Jones to eat a huge plate of crow and either fire Jason Garrett, trade Tony Romo, or both.
Result: PARTLY CORRECT
I suppose I should have waited a little longer before writing this part. It came down to the wire in Week 17, but thanks largely to a 3 INT day by Tony Romo, the Cowboys are missing out on the playoffs for the third straight year, so I did get that part right. It may interest you to know the last time the Cowboys missed 3 straight postseasons was 2000-2002, when they were a truly bad team. Jason Garrett avoided the axe on Black Monday, so I think it's safe to say he's staying put. Unless, ya know, Jerry Jones has a sudden change of heart and throws him out, but I doubt that. Romo isn't likely to go anywhere either, mostly because there aren't any other good QBs out there to pick up.

With that in mind, the Cowboys need to do some serious soul-searching. There's a lot of questions that need answered here. Jerry Jones said long before this season began that this team's championship window was closing. Consider also that Romo will be 33 when next season starts, and they're definitely running out of time. I don't know what they need to address first in the offseason, but they'll need to get it straight, and fast.

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  1. wxwax's Avatar
    Well, you can't blame Rex Ryan when you knew he would be the head coach when you made the prediction. I'm not surprised Tebow didn't get start. He's awful. He just cannot throw. I'm not sure who will want him. Jax might appreciate his marketing value but not the turmoil he brings with him. Wouldn't surprise me if he's out of the NFL next season.

    I think you get full credit for the Cincinnati prediction. They closed the season 7-1. Can't ask for better than that. They can't help their schedule. I think Darvon did an analysis of how hard the average NFL schedule is. Can't remember his conclusion. But I'm thinking not many teams play more than 4 playoff teams in a season.

    The Cowboys are a mess. Thank you, Jerry Jones.
  2. mkocs6's Avatar
    Tony Romo can come play for my team any day.
  3. Pruitt's Avatar
    Cowboys are a mediocre team and have been so for a while. The mystique has blinded folks - they have a terrible GM who has wonderful job security.

    As for tebow - Tannenbaum deserved to lose his job for bringing him in. Wax is right, he is lousy. Where he excelled was in the timing of his few decent passes. Ryan knew how bad he is, and that's why he stubbornly stuck with the 28th best QB in the league.
  4. NickMykita's Avatar
    Also, another fun fact about the Cowboys: Since the 2000 season, they are 2-11 in Week 17.