ESPN has EA Sports official Madden '11 simulation. My take: too safe. For the most part it just takes last year's records and adds or subtracts up to 2 games. Only 7 teams have a change of more than 2 games over '09. Only 1 team, the Eagles who they have at 5-11, have a change of more than 4 games.
For the playoffs, they have 9 of the same 12 teams from last year, including 5 of 6 in the AFC. Of the 3 new teams in the playoffs (Giants, 49ers, Texans), none of them finished below .500 last year.
For individual players, they predict big years from Aaron Rodgers, Matt Schaub, Chris Johnson, Andre Johnson, Jared Allen and Darrelle Revis (apparently they don't have a holdout algorithm). Not exactly bold predictions.