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Thread: What did I tell ya?

  1. #1

    What did I tell ya?

    There is fear within the confines of the Detroit Lions' offices in Allen Park that Jahvid Bust's career may indeed be finished. His history of concussions makes keeping him on the roster a risky position at best.

    Duh!!

    Admit you screwed the pooch on this one and move on Mr. Mayhew.

    Take a good look at the RB from Utah State (Turbin), fellas.
    Screw you guys, I'm going home.

  2. #2
    I think screwed the pooch might be a bit strong. Best's performance on the field has shown that they were correct, he was a player worthy of a first round pick. Yes, he did have a history of injuries, but there are plenty of players that had injury issues in college but went on to be good or even great NFL players. Off the top of my head - Anthony Munoz, Frank Gore, Curtis Martin. All that a team can do is evaluate the injuries and try to figure out if they are likely to become an on-going issue, then determine whether or not it's worth the risk.

    Buried somewhere in the archives of FP(at that time)L, I made a comment along the lines of 'after so many injury problems with smaller backs like Kevin Jones and Kevin Smith, was Jahvid Best the right draft pick for the Lions'. A year later they drafted a 230 pound bruiser, who immediately got hurt and missed the entire season.

  3. #3
    Best was a calculated risk. I can't blame them for trying to get a franchise RB, TE, and QB Within a couple years of each other.

    As for Leshoure, I heard that injury may end his career as well or at least diminish his effectiveness.
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  4. #4
       
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    Best sure did look good when he was healthy.

  5. #5
    Total pooch screw. Sorry, but burning a first round pick on a RB anything less than Adrian Peterson is a bad call these days.
    Screw you guys, I'm going home.

  6. #6
    LeShoure should come back fine. Achilles tears are no longer the career ender they once were. (I hope).
    Screw you guys, I'm going home.

  7. #7
       
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    I still don't completely buy into this "don't draft a RB in the first round" idea. If you look at recent draft history, you'll see that nearly all of the 1st round picks are starting, contributing RBs in the NFL, while late round backs are working out at no better than 1 in 10. If you need a RB and a great prospect is available, take him when you get him.
    Twitter @vancemeek "I wish I could say something classy and inspirational, but that just wouldn't be our style. Pain heals. Chicks dig scars. Glory...lasts forever."-Shane Falco

  8. #8
       
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    Quote Originally Posted by vancemeek View Post
    I still don't completely buy into this "don't draft a RB in the first round" idea. If you look at recent draft history, you'll see that nearly all of the 1st round picks are starting, contributing RBs in the NFL, while late round backs are working out at no better than 1 in 10. If you need a RB and a great prospect is available, take him when you get him.
    What you're missing is the value of the pick in direct comparison. Rb has not delivered that bang for the buck, even a little. NFL front offices know this full well. It's one of the least drafted positions in the 1st round. They know there's way more value elsewhere. I looked at the last 10 drafts, and among them were 3 superior backs coming out of college, and 2 gambles that turned out pretty good. Very few have given long sustained top tier performance. That doesn't warrant a 1st rounder. The exceptional backs were lt, sjax, and Peterson. the gambles that turned out very good were Larry Johnson and cj.8k. There were plenty of average guys from the first, but the first is about exceptional guys.

    Among undrafted guys are Willie parker, Arian foster, jamal Charles, and Fred Jackson. The list of second round beasts gets longer. A few are rice, forte, and mjd. If you're picking a rb, do so in the later rounds unless he's a monster like sjax, lt, and Peterson were. The position is further denigrated by the run by commitee, and the pass first persona most teams have adopted. Ask the panthers how important 1st round rbs are. They have 2!! And chose not to use them as much, to give their qb in a pass happy league first choice.

    I could do much more in depth research into the subject, but that's simply not warranted. The NFLs move to a passing league combined with the huge non factor rate of most 1st round backs negates me wasting my time. most recently the saints prove this point. They traded this yrs 1st round pick to get ingram. The former heisman winner. This kid was no better than the 2 undrafted fa's behind him on the depth chart.

    Picking a back or a wr in the first round is a total waste unless they are unabated freaks. Gambling on a back in the 1st is stupid.. Vance it seems you ignored the fact that in every single draft for the last decade, a back came off the board later that had a way better career than the 1st round stud, sans sjax, Peterson, and lt. everyone knew they were special. The really good guys have fallen flat. Now everyone throws so much, so the 1st round back is a trinket, not a cornerstone.
    "If I could start my life all over again, I would be a professional football player, and you damn well better believe I would be a Pittsburgh Steeler." Jack Lambert, 1990 HoF Introduction.

  9. #9
       
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    Yes, if you're going to use run-by-committee, then obviously there's no point in drafting a high round RB. And yes, there are good backs that go late, but for example. The Bengals need a RB this year. If we draft one of the ones predicted to go early (Lamar Miller, David Wilson, Richardson, maybe a few others later on), based on the past, there's a 75% or more chance that you'll get a guy who contributes, starts, and plays pretty well. If you wait and draft a guy in the 6th rd, you've got maybe a 10% chance. Yeah, you might get lucky and get Arian Foster, but odds are, you won't. Get a guy early who, history says, will probably be a good back.
    Twitter @vancemeek "I wish I could say something classy and inspirational, but that just wouldn't be our style. Pain heals. Chicks dig scars. Glory...lasts forever."-Shane Falco

  10. #10
       
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    Quote Originally Posted by mikesteelnation1 View Post
    I could do much more in depth research into the subject, but that's simply not warranted. The NFLs move to a passing league combined with the huge non factor rate of most 1st round backs negates me wasting my time. most recently the saints prove this point. They traded this yrs 1st round pick to get ingram. The former heisman winner. This kid was no better than the 2 undrafted fa's behind him on the depth chart.

    Picking a back or a wr in the first round is a total waste unless they are unabated freaks. Gambling on a back in the 1st is stupid.. Vance it seems you ignored the fact that in every single draft for the last decade, a back came off the board later that had a way better career than the 1st round stud, sans sjax, Peterson, and lt. everyone knew they were special. The really good guys have fallen flat. Now everyone throws so much, so the 1st round back is a trinket, not a cornerstone.
    Really? LOL. Check your facts again.

    Here are the 1st rd backs from recent history:

    Ingram-back by committee, so in a bad situation as far as numbers go.
    CJ Spiller-stepped in nicely when given a chance
    Ryan Matthews-starter in SD
    Jahvid Best-injured but started in a passing offense
    Knowshon Moreno-I'll give you that one. He sucks
    Donald Brown-ditto
    Beanie Wells-Had a good year, and is the starter
    McFadden-top 5 back when healthy
    Jonathan Stewart-If he weren't splitting carries would be a beast
    Felix Jones-OK sucks
    Mendenhall-starter
    CJ2K-rough this year but a stud
    AP-Best in the game
    Marshawn Lynch-Starter and breakout star

    Here are the 7th round picks from those years: Bruce Miller, Shaun Chappas, Da'rel Scott, Shane Bannon, Anthony Allen, Baron Batch, Stanly Havili, Jay Finley, Ryan D'Emperio, Erik Lorig, Chris Ogbonaya, Javarris Williams, Fui Vakapuna, Eddie Williams, La'rod Stephens-Howling, Rashad Jennings, Peyton Hillis, Justin Forsett, Cory Byrd, Allen Patrick, Derek Schouman, DeShawn Wynn, Nate Ilioa, Jason Snelling, Kenneth Darby, Ahmad Bradshaw.

    Now, if you'd prefer that second list, you need help
    Twitter @vancemeek "I wish I could say something classy and inspirational, but that just wouldn't be our style. Pain heals. Chicks dig scars. Glory...lasts forever."-Shane Falco

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