Luck vs. RGIII

[Trumpetbdw]

I've been stating that this should be a bigger debate than it is. It appears that Indy has made their choice, but out of curiosity, is there anyone else who believes that Griffin should be considered at #1 overall?

I want to put my thoughts as clearly as possible...

-Andrew Luck's upside is as a more athletic Peyton Manning. In other words, he has GOAT upside. And I buy into absolutely every positive thing that's been said about him. He instantly will become one of the 5 most athletic QBs in the NFL.

-If it's possible, RGIII's upside may be even higher. We've never seen anything like what he could become, with his specific combination of athleticism, size, intelligence, decision-making, arm strength, and accuracy.

Both of their floors are high, although Luck's floor is pretty clearly higher. Luck's also been on the radar for 3 years, while the sense is that Griffin came out of nowhere.

I have no issues with Luck going #1 to Indy. I'd also have no issues if they change their mind. What we're seeing is even greater than what some thought Manning/Leaf was going to be, and is perhaps higher than even if Manning/Vick both entered the draft in the same year. We've never seen a year in the history of the NFL where two greater prospects have entered the NFL at the same time.

Add in the drama involving the 2nd pick? This is some good stuff, people. Stuff we may never see again.

[darvon]

Take a look at RG3 vs Luck vs high-draft QBs of the past.

Luck spanned multiple years. Would he have been 1st pick for multiple years? Maybe.

RG3 is single year.

Is RG3 better than Stafford coming out of college? Or Manning? Or Smith? or Bradford?

I don't think you can tell, but Luck seems to have been higher longer in college unlike all the other QBs since probably PM.

Of the QBs in the league about 5 years, most people like Ben, Eli, Aaron at the first level with Rivers, Cutler, Stafford, and maybe Ryan, Flacco at the 2nd level.

I think both QB probably are shoe-ins for Level 2, but both are less than 50 50 for Level 1, as is Newton.

So I don't know if in 5 years either will be a Top 20% QB, probably neither. Luck just seems a little more probable to be Top20% in 5 years.

Give me Luck.

[wxwax]

A part of drafting someone in the first round is your degree of certitude that they will make it.

There's a greater degree of certitude about Luck than there is III. Luck has played a pro-style offense. He has demonstrated every tool they want to see, in the offense in which they want to see it.

III has a lot of skills, but he ran a version of the spread. I believe he has some mechanical issues (footwork.) He needs to prove he can read a defense from the pocket while running a pro-style offense.

Luck is a safer bet. And it's not like you're giving up anything when you take him. There shouldn't be a debate. Which is why there isn't one.

[packa7x]

No way I take RGIII over Luck. Luck is physically talented, though not as talented in that aspect as RGIII, but he has the passing abilities that RGIII doesn't have. Not saying that RGIII lacks in that category, but Luck is "can't miss" so to speak.

[Trumpetbdw]

Luck measured rather comperably to Newton. He's very physical. Evidently I think RGIII is more of a sure thing than most.

Floor goes to Luck, although floor is rather high for RGIII as well. Ceiling goes to RGIII, although ceiling for Luck is about as high as we've ever seen as well. Luck is the smart 1st overall pick.

Again, let's not forget how much of a slam dunk Vick was as the #1 overall. A prospect Vick vs. prospect Manning debate would be a very interesting argument. But it's tough to separate what they've done with how they were viewed. RGIII is a better prospect than Vick. Luck is rather equal to Manning. Yes, RGIII would have beaten out Bradford and Smith, likely Cam Newton, and probably Stafford, as would have Luck. In my opinion, the best 4 prospects of the last 15 years are Manning, Vick, Luck, and RGIII, which is why I posed this question.

I fully expect to be in the minority. I don't expect to be the only frog on my lily pad. Anyone else joining me? Again, I'm not saying Luck shouldn't be #1, I'm saying RGIII should be included in the debate. Surely not everyone is in the Luck slam dunk category.

[Trumpetbdw]

Oh, and just for the record. Promoting RGIII in no way should degrade the fact that Andrew Luck is an all-time level prospect. I could not be higher on either. I get that the intrigue is because the Colts are staying at #1 and selecting Luck, and all of the action is at number 2.

[wxwax]

Luck is rather equal to Manning.

Look, I'm not jabbing here. No criticism intended. But I think this is wrong. And if people believe it, it's because of skin color. Luck is way more athletic than Peyton Manning. He runs much better than Manning ever did. I really do think race is coloring (pun!) the discussion. Apparently white guys can't be athletic.

Manning's superb gift is his brain, his ability to read the game and respond. It will be a long time before we know if any QB, let alone Luck or III, can be the match of him in that regard.

[Trumpetbdw]

Look, I'm not jabbing here. No criticism intended. But I think this is wrong. And if people believe it, it's because of skin color. Luck is way more athletic than Peyton Manning. He runs much better than Manning ever did. I really do think race is coloring (pun!) the discussion. Apparently white guys can't be athletic.

Manning's superb gift is his brain, his ability to read the game and respond. It will be a long time before we know if any QB, let alone Luck or III, can be the match of him in that regard.

You are right, but that wasn't my point. I said all along that he had the upside of a much more athletic Manning. The brain, and the time studying sets Manning apart, and it's what will be the difference with both. My point was that Luck and Manning are essentially equally thought of as prospects. It's been Elway, Manning, and Luck as the three great college prospect QBs. Luck's in Manning's tier in that regard. That was my point. Wasn't judging ability or attributes.

[wxwax]

Gotcha, thanks for the explanation!

[tubbs1518]

I actually think I might prefer RGIII and honestly if they had came out in the same year I might have prefered Bradford to Luck.