Redskins Rams trade, a little perspective

[Andy Freeland]

I've been trying to wrap my mind around this trade. Rams get 3 first round picks and a second, the Redskins get (presumably) RG3. How many current QBs would you give up that kind of bounty to get? 10? Probably fewer. Age is a factor, no one over 30 (Brees, Brady and Peyton Manning), the class of '04 (Eli, Rivers, Roethlisberger) is on shaky ground. For me the only 'absolutely yes, where do I sign' guy is Aaron Rodgers.

Yes
Aaron Rodgers

Probably
Matthew Stafford
Eli Manning
Cam Newton

Maybe
Ben Roethlisberger
Philip Rivers
Jay Cutler
Matt Ryan
Josh Freeman

Does that make Luck and RG3 2 of the 11 most valuable QBs in the league right now?

[Bengals1181]

exactly why I think its a bad trade. You wouldn't give up that much for the great majority of QB's already in the league. And you're going to give it up for a guy who's never played a down?

[wxwax]

I've been trying to wrap my mind around this trade. Rams get 3 first round picks and a second, the Redskins get (presumably) RG3. How many current QBs would you give up that kind of bounty to get? 10? Probably fewer. Age is a factor, no one over 30 (Brees, Brady and Peyton Manning), the class of '04 (Eli, Rivers, Roethlisberger) is on shaky ground. For me the only 'absolutely yes, where do I sign' guy is Aaron Rodgers.

Yes
Aaron Rodgers

Probably
Matthew Stafford
Eli Manning
Cam Newton

Maybe
Ben Roethlisberger
Philip Rivers
Jay Cutler
Matt Ryan
Josh Freeman

Does that make Luck and RG3 2 of the 11 most valuable QBs in the league right now?

Andy, turn your question around.

How many of the teams you just named would give up their QB for a high-first round swap, two number ones and a number two?

None?

The point being that they couldn't be sure when they'd next have a chance at getting a good starting QB. So they wouldn't make the deal. They'd stick with what they have.

[darvon]

I think you are radically discounting for age.

Put it another way, the average 1st gets you a Very Good (let's say Flacco/Cutler and UP are VG) QB about 1/3 of the time. You get a VG qb for about 12 years. It takes you about 3 years to figure out that your QB is not VG and you need to pick again. So on average you take 3 1st picks to get a VG QB for 12 out of 18 years. If you use the 3 for Brady, you get a GREAT QB for 4 more years, and then you have to go back in the pool. If a GREAT QB is worth 2x a VG QB, then the deal looks like this:


12 VG Years - 6 Crappy years - 3 1st picks

OR

8 VG years (4 Great years x 2) - 3 1st picks.


Which do you prefer? Given I am a GM who would like to keep their job as long as possible, I would take 3 1sts and a 2nd and trade them for Brady in a heartbeat.

My GM job would be good for 4 years + 3 years if I pick a bad QB after Brady. If I just keep the pick and pick a QB today, it's 2:1 that I am fired in 3 years.

I'll take Brady and start buying annuities.

[darvon]

How many of the teams you just named would give up their QB for a high-first round swap, two number ones and a number two?

Not Brady, nor Brees, nor probably staub and romo, nor all you mentioned EXCEPT Freeman.

A QB in the hand is worth MUCH more than a 1st, about 3x more Plus 6 years of failure.