Luck vs Griffin, who SHOULD be #1 overall?

**mikesteelnation1** · 04-11-2012, 03:55 AM

I know this pick may be preordained, but tonight I had an epiphany. I know the colts offensive, and I mean that figuratively and literally, coordinator better than most. I've seen his terrible game plans for half a decade, and it dawned on me to apply that knowledge to the potential picks and their strengths and comfort zones, mixed with what I've seen from how he handled an elite qb those years.

I'll use Greg cosells scouting ability as a basis. He's considered one of the top scouts of player ability. I agree. Here's his take on the luck vs rg3 conundrum.

http://nflfilms.nfl.com/2012/03/23/c...t-always-luck/

Based on what cosell saw, luck will not be very successful in arians scheme. Luck excels at throwing the short stuff, and audibling to be able to throw the short stuff. That's the total opposite of arians scheme. It's all about the deep ball, which luck hasnt done that much, and doesn't have an excellent arm to do so. Add to that the garbage line in Indy and ill predict by game 5 colts01 shares the same view of arians that trumpet and I have. Luck excels with 3 and 5 step drops, I'm not sure that exists in arians playbook sans a very, very few games. Even when the short drops worked excellently, it was never installed full time.

However, rg3 is excellent throwing on the run, which is a good trait behind that o line. He's also great at throwing into a window down the field. He's got a great arm and great athleticism. Perfect for arians scheme.

Indy has no run game, at all. And a not so good defense. There won't be many times this team plays not being behind. I can only assume the stupid offensive play calls will increase from arians as a result. The predictable play calls. The steelers ran 80% of their running plays to the right last year. Arians doesnt adjust, he just does what he does.

Seems to me rg adjusts on the fly and hurls the rock better, while luck is more calculating and lives on the short stuff that stems from him changing the play at scrimmage to gain mismatches. Lucks higher football iq won't translate to this scheme as well as rg3's..

Robert griffin III is the better pick for the colts given their chosen scheme. He might be better period. He's got the higher ceiling..

Either way, colts fans prepare yourselves for lots of scripted bubble screens, lots of running plays to the right, and lots of deep stabs, even when they're not working at all. Welcome to arians-land. The home of predictibility...

Is it rg running things to a 7-9 record, or luck setting the single season sack record in this scheme?

**Trumpetbdw** · 04-12-2012, 12:40 AM

They'll go with Luck, and I do think that Luck is good enough to make it work. Somewhat early, better as he develops. The big problem is, by the time he's hitting his big growth period as a QB, Arians will be fired, and the Colts will be starting over with their offensive philosophy. Their hiring of Arians was curious to say the least. I guess they're banking on his connection to Peyton, and the similarities in Luck's style with Peyton's.

RGIII would be a better immediate fit, and while his floor is lower than Luck's, it's not by nearly as much as some people think. I've been hammering home the thought that there are 2 #1s this year, and RGIII may be the better of those, certainly with the higher ceiling. The best player I've ever seen, and by far the most dangerous, was an in-his-prime Steve Young. That is Griffin's legit upside. He'll run consistently for 600 and 8-10 in his sleep, but he's smart enough and accurate enough to not force the run, giving him the athletic ability, and decision-making ability to become an elite pocket QB.

BUT...

Since Griffin is the slightly more likely to bust, putting him in a situation like Indy would not be the best thing for his career. They have no one who can get open, which means he'd be likely to start running too much, and it could ultimately stunt his growth. And while Luck doesn't quite have the arm strength as Griffin, I think his performance in a climate-controlled setting will only help his arm (similar to how it helped Manning), and give him a chance to succeed with some of the high challenge passes that Arians will undoubtedly throw his way.

**mikesteelnation1** · 04-12-2012, 02:35 AM

Good call on arians being canned by the time he hits his stride. I concur. Also good call on luck perhaps being better with less weapons, in theory anyways. They should be dinking and dunking based on that, but when has arians ever molded his scheme to the strength of the team?? I certainly NEVER saw that in my half decade of viewing his game calls.

Even with all that said I think rg is a super bright kid. He's not going to read his first option, then run like vick did. He's a better qb than vick was out of college. I think he will be patient, and only run as a last option. Extend the play with his legs and let a guy get open in the scramble. The lack of playmakers doesn't inhibit their ability to get open in a scramble. It actually benefits the offense. The longer the play goes, the less the defense can queue on keys and landmarks, and route tree distribution. It becomes true man up, with a huge advantage to the offense. Rg can practice the scrambles with his guys and get in sync with it. Defense can't..

I think rg3 is the better choice based on their choice of oc's.

Love the dig @ pm on the climate controlled point!! Can't wait to see how he does in the rarified air in mile high!

**Dave Lapham** · 04-12-2012, 02:10 PM

Luck is the safer pick because the style of offense he has run at Stanford successfully for years is easier to project to the NFL. RGIII comes out of the spread.....there have been successes and failures projecting QBs out of the spread to the NFL. I think both of them will be franchise QBs for their teams. I sense they will both transition smoothly to the NFL and will be faces of the league for many years to come. My feeling is it is almost a personal preference, you really can't go wrong. Flip a coin.

**Andy Freeland** · 04-12-2012, 06:19 PM

There's an old saying in the computer world 'no one ever got fired for buying IBM'. Which means, of course, that if you take the safe route you're always covered. I took the guy that everyone else would have taken so it's not my fault. He fooled us all. If the Colts take Luck and he busts but RGIII ends up a superstar it will be bad, but survivable. If they take RGIII and he busts but Luck becomes a superstar, everyone involved needs start looking for another line of work.

**Trumpetbdw** · 04-12-2012, 10:04 PM

Originally Posted by Andy Freeland

There's an old saying in the computer world 'no one ever got fired for buying IBM'. Which means, of course, that if you take the safe route you're always covered. I took the guy that everyone else would have taken so it's not my fault. He fooled us all. If the Colts take Luck and he busts but RGIII ends up a superstar it will be bad, but survivable. If they take RGIII and he busts but Luck becomes a superstar, everyone involved needs start looking for another line of work.

Isn't there a certain dignity in swinging for the fences. There's even recent precedent with the seemingly out of nowhere Mario Williams over Reggie Bush decision. Even if Mario Williams turned into Reggie White, if Bush turned into the modern day Gale Sayers, which was the initial thought, the Williams pick would have been panned. As it turns out, Williams turned into Simeon Rice, which has greatly trumped Bush's Amp Lee impersonation.

Interesting looking back on that draft. Of the top 10 drafted in 2006, the best performer has been Mario Williams, according the Career AV on pro-football-reference.com, yet he only ranked 10th overall from that draft. Next is AJ Hawk (5th pick/12th CarAV), followed by D'Brickashaw Ferguson (4/15), Reggie Bush (2/17), Vince Young (3/28), and Vernon Davis (6/30). The other top 10 selections that year were Michael Huff, Donte Whitner, Ernie Sims, and Matt Leinart. Yow. That has to be one of the most disappointing top 10s of all time. So based on that, Houston made the right choice. I guess.

For the record, the top 10 in career AV from that draft class so far has been...
1. MJD- 55 (2nd rd/60th overall)
2. Haloti Ngata- 52 (1st/12th)
3. Jahri Evans- 50 (4th/108th)
4. Jay Cutler- 49 (1st/11th)
5. Joseph Addai- 47 (1st/30th)
6. Marcus McNeill- 45 (2nd/50th)
7. Greg Jennings- 44 (2nd/52nd)
8. Marques Colston- 41 (7th/252nd)
9. Nick Mangold- 40 (1st/29th)
10 (tie). Mario Williams- 39 (1st/1st)
10 (tie). Santonio Holmes- 39 (1st/25th)

So if we replay this draft, who's the top pick? Wouldn't be MJD, although he'd certainly be in the upper half of the first round. Would it be Cutler? Maybe, although they still wanted to give Carr another shot at that point. Would Ngata be considered? Maybe it would still be Williams, who has had a pretty nice career to this point. But that's a pretty ugly class at the top, if you ask me.

So anyway, I guess the point is safe/schmafe. I think both top picks this year are safe, and in that case, I'd go for the never-before-seen upside of RGIII. IBM is very good, but if you're sitting on a potential Steve Jobs, you have to take that shot.

**Andy Freeland** · 04-12-2012, 10:19 PM

I agree Trumpet, that's the way it should work. Scout the players and pick the one you think will be the best no matter what anyone else says. I just think that's rare, more often than not teams will take the player that they're expected to take for CYA reasons, particularly in the top 10. They are much more likely to take a chance when it's not the face of the draft.

As for the 2006 draft, probably Williams, maybe Ngata.

**mkocs6** · 04-12-2012, 11:15 PM

If Joseph Addai's AV is above Greg Jennings's, Mario Williams's, and Nick Mangold's, I'm not going to worry about AV.

**mkocs6** · 04-12-2012, 11:37 PM

That wasn't supposed to be catty, but I'm afraid it comes off that way. On Luck and Griffin, I would say that if Griffin's upside is Steve Young, I'm wondering where you think Griffin is now (versus where Young was when he came out of BYU) and what type of coaching Griffin will receive (versus Young's in the pros). I mean, Bill Walsh isn't going to be coaching up RG3. Luck might be 'safer,' but I'm not sure who has the tools to build Griffin up into the guy you think he can be. I know we've seen that spread guys can succeed in the pros--on a provisional basis, anyway--but long-term, Griffin needs to be taught footwork, because his footwork more or less doesn't exist. RG3 has more speed than Young ever did, so there's that, but I don't know if you can bet on his running ability being there for his entire career. I think Griffin clearly looks like a guy who'll respond to coaching, but you need to be reasonable about what your head coach, coordinator, and QB coach are equipped to do, too.

Safe or not, I think Luck is the right pick. He has the skill-set to succeed long-term in the league, and I don't think there's any need to re-invent the quarterback position. Potential is fine--you want someone who will grow as a player, certainly--but this isn't the NBA where you're drafting guys who are nineteen, but he's the best drop-back quarterbacking prospect in almost fifteen years, and he's quick enough outside the pocket. Griffin has a gun and can throw bombs, but you've seen Luck make pro throws nearly every down in college. I don't think the potential reward from Griffin is so much greater than Luck that you pass on him, and I do think the risk with Griffin is higher. We'll see. I've been wrong before.

**Trumpetbdw** · 04-13-2012, 12:01 AM

Originally Posted by mkocs6

If Joseph Addai's AV is above Greg Jennings's, Mario Williams's, and Nick Mangold's, I'm not going to worry about AV.

I don't disagree. It's mainly a product of Addai starting his career really well in an extremely favorable system while Jennings and Williams took a little while to develop. Remember, there was a time Addai was a top 5 fantasy pick, and he feels like he's much older than Jennings and Williams in particular. I also think C is tough to judge no matter what type of advanced metrics are used. But at the very least, I thought it was an interesting little case study.