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Thread: Football Outsiders prediction for 2012

  1. #11
       
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    Agree with iwatt. Should be a stronger division. I also agree that two things you see in surprise turnaround teams are unusual health, and turnover differential. I like the Niner's positioning in the division, but you can see potential disappointment looming.

  2. #12
       
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    Quote Originally Posted by bluestree View Post
    Agree with iwatt. Should be a stronger division. I also agree that two things you see in surprise turnaround teams are unusual health, and turnover differential. I like the Niner's positioning in the division, but you can see potential disappointment looming.
    Health is huge. The 2010 Bears and the 2011 Bears weren't really that different as teams, until the offense got hurt.

    The 2010 Packers and the 2011 Packers weren't that different either, but a relatively healthy team in 2011 led them to 15-1.

    Health is big, but it's also important when the injuries happen. Injuries to non-QBs at the beginning of the year can be adapted to. But if they happen after the team had hit it´s stride, it can throw them for a multigame spiral of decay. It also helps when the injuries are spread out by unit. I don't mean to diminish the 2010 Packers, but even though they were incredibly injured, the injuries hit all position groups kind of equally, so the depth guys could step up. Kudos to TT for having solid depth guys, but in the Divisional round last year all the injuries were to the OL, one of the toughest units to build depth for. Similar to what happened to the Steelers last year, were their whole defensive line went into IR against Saint Tebow.
    “Never ascribe to malice that which can adequately be explained by incompetence.”
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  3. #13
       
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    Football Outsiders did give us Browns fans a .500 season last year {so you know their stats never lie}. And they had the Giants missing the playoffs. Doubtless, this can all be explained statistically...
    “I’ve always been a big fan of Norv Turner. I think he gets it. I think he does an outstanding job.” — Pat Shurmur

  4. #14
       
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    Does anyone believe that the 49ers have substantially improved their offense?

    The defense can't play much better than it did last season. It's reasonable to expect some sort of fall-off this season, due to injuries and loss of form.

    So that puts the burden on the offense. Is it going to be much better? Does anyone truly believe Randy Moss will make a difference? Can a rookie wide receiver? There are a lot of miles on Frank Gore, a physical runner. Can he do it again?

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    Randy Moss is pretty much going to run a straight line. Not sure how he's going to adapt to life in the Bay Area again, when having the ball thrown by somebody not called Tom Brady.

    The running game depends on the health of the OL. Harbaugh isv ery good at it, and if Jacobs can spell Gore some, it shouldn't be that bad.

    Agreed on the D. Injury to either Bowman or Willis reduces the versatility and speed of that D. Does Justin Smith have another banner year in him? Will Aldon Smith have a rookie slump?

    I'm more concerned with the expectations, really. Not sure how the fanbase is going to react to Alexcuses if they go on a loosing streak.
    “Never ascribe to malice that which can adequately be explained by incompetence.”
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  6. #16
       
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    Quote Originally Posted by wxwax View Post
    Does anyone believe that the 49ers have substantially improved their offense?
    Of course! They added a 35 year old who has quit on every team he ever played for. A 3rd string wide receiver. An old, big power back who tip-toes at the LoS. A tiny rookie WR and a tiny scat-back. That's massive improvement!

    The offense really hinges on whether Gore has one more good season in him. If he can continue to pull 8 men into the box then Alex can make easy reads off of play-action and once again be semi-functional as a QB. If Gore falls off and Hunter can't pick up the slack then the offense is pretty much hosed. I have zero faith in Jacobs or Dixon.

  7. #17
       
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    Clem,

    All three reasons you cited are valid reasons for concern. Predicting win total's in a league that only plays 16 games and where scoring is low (when not counted in sevens) and the ball is oblong-shaped is a mug's game. But there is very good reason to expect that last year's luck will not be repeated. The base expectation for next year should be a few games lower, adjusted for off-season changes in talent. I don't know whether that means adjusting up or down, though I do know all 32 teams think they adjusted up and 16 will be wrong!

  8. #18
       
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    Quote Originally Posted by msclemons View Post
    Of course! They added a 35 year old who has quit on every team he ever played for. A 3rd string wide receiver. An old, big power back who tip-toes at the LoS. A tiny rookie WR and a tiny scat-back. That's massive improvement!

    The offense really hinges on whether Gore has one more good season in him. If he can continue to pull 8 men into the box then Alex can make easy reads off of play-action and once again be semi-functional as a QB. If Gore falls off and Hunter can't pick up the slack then the offense is pretty much hosed. I have zero faith in Jacobs or Dixon.
    Isn't it a little early in the season for 'Nightmares From the Bottom of the Bottle'? It's the NFCW - you'll do fine.

  9. Quote Originally Posted by msclemons View Post
    Of course! They added a 35 year old who has quit on every team he ever played for. A 3rd string wide receiver. An old, big power back who tip-toes at the LoS. A tiny rookie WR and a tiny scat-back. That's massive improvement!

    The offense really hinges on whether Gore has one more good season in him. If he can continue to pull 8 men into the box then Alex can make easy reads off of play-action and once again be semi-functional as a QB. If Gore falls off and Hunter can't pick up the slack then the offense is pretty much hosed. I have zero faith in Jacobs or Dixon.
    Just eat the worm, buddy. It'll be alright. You check your inbox lately?
    Last edited by Patrick Sullivan; 07-18-2012 at 10:42 PM. Reason: How did Bruce Wayne & Peter Parker ever pull off this dual identity thing, anyway? Oy.

  10. #20
       
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    For me, Seattle is the big unknown in the NFC West. Very curious to see what Pete does on offense. And with that home field crowd, sweeping them will be very tough.

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