Barring injury or surprise waiver addition:

[ScottDCP]

My first guess as to the Opening Day Roster:

QB Fitz,Young, Smith
RB Jackson, Spiller, Choice
FB McIntyre
WR Johnson, Nelson, Graham, Jones, Hagan, Easley
TE Chandler, Smith, Dickerson
C Wood, Asper
OG Levitre, Urbik, Rinehart, Jasper
OT Glenn, Pears, Hairston, Young

DT Williams, Dareus, Heard, Johnson
DE Williams, Anderson, Kelsay, Merriman, Carrington
MLB Sheppard, White
OLB Barnett, Moats, Carder, Bradham, Morrison
S Byrd, Wilson, Searcy, Scott
CB Williams, Gilmore, McGee, McKelvin, Rogers, Brooks

K Lindell
P Powell
LS Sanborn


How I'd like it to look:

QB Fitz,Thigpen, Young
RB Jackson, Spiller, Choice
FB McIntyre
WR Johnson, Nelson, Graham, Jones, Hagan, Easley, Roosevelt
TE Chandler, Smith
C Wood, Asper
OG Levitre, Urbik, Rinehart, Jasper
OT Glenn, Pears, Hairston, Young

DT Williams, Dareus, Heard, Johnson
DE Williams, Anderson, Kelsay, Merriman, Carrington
MLB Sheppard, White
OLB Barnett, Moats, Carder, Bradham, Morrison
S Byrd, Wilson, Searcy, Scott
CB Williams, Gilmore, McGee, McKelvin, Rogers, Brooks

K Lindell
P Moorman
LS Sanborn

Just guessing, based on camp chatter and interpretation of coach interviews. I disagree with my expectation by two slots.

I would not be surprised at all if Morrison, Scott, or Easley get released. Among the guys I would expect to see play, barring injury. On the O-Line, I would not be surprised to see Asper, Jasper, or Young going as well, but in these 6 cases I do not have a clear picture of where their replacement might lie.

This is likely to change.

[ScottDCP]

First modifications:

Forgot to highlight Roosevelt on my list of like-to-haves.

Also, they will keep Potter for kickoffs instead of Dickerson at TE, going with two tight ends because it turns out they never use 3.

[Pruitt]

Love seeing the names "Williams" and "Dareus."

You know, this team is due a healthy season. If it happens, there's a chance that December will finally be fun again.

[ScottDCP]

OK, time to update my misses...

The Bills have released Michael Jasper, a pleasant fellow who turns heads by waking up.

New projection:

QB Fitz,Young, Smith
RB Jackson, Spiller, Choice
FB McIntyre
WR Johnson, Nelson, Graham, Jones, Hagan, Easley
TE Chandler, Smith,
C Wood
OG Levitre, Urbik, Rinehart
OT Glenn, Pears, Hairston, Young

DT Williams, Dareus, Heard, Johnson
DE Williams, Anderson, Kelsay, Merriman, Carrington
MLB Sheppard, White, McKillop
OLB Barnett, Moats, Carder, Bradham,
S Byrd, Wilson, Searcy, Scott
CB Williams, Gilmore, McGee, McKelvin, Rogers, Brooks

K Lindell
K/O Potter
P Powell
LS Sanborn


I think that's 53.

Interesting names not making the roster if my guesses turn out to be accurate:

Kirk Morrison
Zebrie Sanders
Mark Asper
Tyler Thigpen
Brian Moorman
Torrell Troup
Colin Brown
Dorin Dickerson, whose hands are iffy
Fendi Onobun, who is as athletic as Dickerson, but still a basketball player.
Danny Batten
Johnny White
Ruvell Martin
David Clowney
Dwan Edwards



Qualifiers:

Cowney and Hagan are both getting more reps than Easley, Roosevelt, and Aiken. Clowney to bring him up to speed, Hagan because he is likely to make the team. I still expect Clowney to be cut in favor of Easley, provided the latter does the unlikely and stays healthy.

I am guessing some youth for veterancy cuts in Morrison, Moorman, Edwards, Clowney, and Martin.

Martin's averageness as a receiver is no longer outweighed by his performance on kicking teams with influx of good young athletes.

Moorman is this year or next, as his frequency of bad kicks has increased each of last three years. Buddy leans on Walsh - rather cut a guy a year too early than a year too late.

Edwards and Morrison more expensive than projected replacements, expect no dropoff. Morrison is now behind Moats, and if he stays there, they will want a young guy as backup.

Clowney is really fast but not a really good receiver, and based only on what I have seen when the bills play the Jets, not quite enough on kicking teams to make a difference for him.

Sanders and Asper drafted this year. Sanders is fifth on OT depth chart right now, and only playing RT. If he can't swing, he will be on a practice squad unless someone else thinks they can teach him better. Asper is a 6'7" interior guy. Buffalo's backup center is its starting RG, and they love their backup OG. So, no need to keep an extra one of those. They'll try to stash Colin Brown on practice squad, and use him if Wood or Urbik break their legs again this year.

Choice and White are equivalent runners, with Choice maybe being a hair better. White is better on kicking teams. Might make me wrong because of that.

I have been waiting for McIntyre to get cut for missing blocks in the backfield since he got here. Not happening this year. They are in fact trying to use him as a receiver right now.

Troup can't get out of the nurse's office.

Batten not good enough.

I would love to see Young replace Smith in the Wildcat, and by that I mean not ever run the Wildcat. I still think Smith is the worst receiver they can keep, outside of Martin, the worst QB, the third best kickoff returner on a good day (behind at least Rogers and McKelvin,) and taking up way too much money.

The biggest stretch I am suggesting is that they keep only 2 tight ends. Chandler catches, Smith blocks. If they go 3 TE, who are they fooling by bringing in that third guy and not throwing to him? Use the third or fourth OT and get an OT on LB/SS mismatch in the run game.

[ScottDCP]

Some other young guys who might end up on your practice squad:

CBs Prince Miller and Isaiah Green. They both make lots of plays in practice, but don't have the measurables required to stay on the active roster of a good team all year.

Safety Nick Saenz. Same as the CBs.

Kamar Aiken, Naamaan Roosevelt. Fitz LOVEs Roosevelt, and is constantly politicking to get him on the roster when the issue is not resolved. Catches Everything. Aiken is really solid, but a step slower than you would like. That said, I would take him over a third of the guys who make rosters every year because they run fast, but can't catch or block.

[ScottDCP]

Just read something from Bruce DeHaven on the kid punter:

I'm not sure when or where it will be, but he's going to be a punter in this league.

Looks like Moorman's in, which pleases me.

[Swami]

Actually, Scott, I'm quite ready for Moorman to go. I thought he really tailed off last year and the latter stages of the prior year. Easley's the interesting guy for me - I can see him making someday with some team, but can understand why the Bills might not keep him. And Troup - what a sad story. Who knows what his potential is/was?

[msclemons]

McKillop was a really solid depth guy for the 49ers. Great on special teams too. He got injured and caught up in the numbers game at LB but I think folks in Buffalo will like him.

[ScottDCP]

A couple of developments in recent practices that may affect things:

Kellen Heard has been getting 'dinged' in the lower half every few days for a couple weeks now. Could prevent his being kept.

Dickerson and Onobun are getting some focus. Might mean they replace Easley. Not yet sure. Had his knee not gotten wrecked, Mike Caussin would likely have kept all three off the roster, but he's PUP right now, and no better than fifty fifty to make it back this year.

[ScottDCP]

Actually, Scott, I'm quite ready for Moorman to go. I thought he really tailed off last year and the latter stages of the prior year. Easley's the interesting guy for me - I can see him making someday with some team, but can understand why the Bills might not keep him. And Troup - what a sad story. Who knows what his potential is/was?

I have always liked Moorman because he isn't much bigger than me and is super fast by punter standards. Also, I have a soft spot for the team's Player of the Decade for the '00s.