Rookie QB, anyone?

[ScottDCP]

Here's the ting. There are two who don't look like it. This week Buffalo gets one of them.

Buffalo's in-house shill has just published a bit on how the Colts like to hit big plays in the passing game. These two things mean:

1. Buffalo will once again not try really hard to pressure the quarterback, relying on the front four to get it done.

2. Kyle Williams and last year's Dareus could have a field day agianst the interior of the Colts' line. This year's Dareus will be the determining factor.

3. Spiller starts. Not the best thing, and I will stop talking about it when he gets better at it, but Spiller still does not reliably pick up blitzes and rushers who just beat the o-line. Fitz is going to get hit.

4. Buffalo will sit back in a zone, and if Williams and Dareus don't light up Luck, the TEs and Wayne will put up big numbers.

5. Indy has a good punter, but it looks more and more like the best way to punt to McKelvin is sideways. Will they? I don't think so. I don't think anyone will believe it until the Bills are over .500.

6. Fitz should have a decent day, as should Scott Chandler. Will Gailey stop trying to keep his nuts in a sling? I doubt it. I expect a very conservative game-plan, that will limit Fitz's productivity, provide predictable calls on third and long, and very nearly be enough to lose the game.

7. Luck likes to go deep outside and down the seams. Half of that is a recipe for success against Buffalo. Whoever is lined up against Justin Rogers will be the first read. I expect him to be targeted twenty times.

8. Indoors, Powell might hit one 75 yards, just for fun. I still hate him.

9. Buffalo doesn't get touchbacks on kickoffs, and their coverage teams are not what they were under Bobby April. Can Indy take advantage and get good field position the easy way?

10. Buffalo will try to use the Snap To Smith Run Option formation five times, and will have success three of those times, only because Indy doesn't quite have the defensive talent to cover all bases consistently. Nobody will be surprised when it is run on all of those tries, oh hell I wasn't going to talk about this anymore. Sorry.

Buffalo wins a close one, again, that doesn't have to be close, again.

[Pruitt]

I took the Bills at a very unconfident 3 points in my confidence pool.

Your top 2 points make me wish I could change the pick.

[ScottDCP]

I am prone to believing the worst of Wannstedt, but I think they are going to back off of Luck the way they do Sanchez because of his predilection for hitting Reggie Wayne 17 and 35 yards downfield. Even Brady has trouble with pressure up the middle, so Super Dave will make sure to not do that.

It points to an almost as large problem - Dareus has played like poop for most of the year. Cleveland and the last two weeks are the exception. I will excuse anyone for sucking after their little brother is murdered, but I will not excuse the coaches for relying on him the way they have. He is in a funk (read: probably clinically depressed, for very good reason) and should not have been expected to excel for much of the last two months. Coaches should have seen it coming and planned around it. Also, the thing Kelsay said to the local media about some of the younger players having been talked to about their effort, was totally about Dareus and Sheppard. You can tell in part because they both played to somewhere near their potential the last two weeks, and that doesn't have anything to do with their opponents. They were hustling like they have rarely hustled this year. They may have included Aaron Williams, but he is just lost at CB, not failing to try.

[ScottDCP]

I would like to refine my preview a touch.

11. I never even thought about Freeney vs. Glenn. I am sold on Glenn, apparently. I believe it, cause I am. The kid is a natural.

12. Word out of Bills practice is that they will not be playing Gilmore on Wayne wherever he lines up. That means Wayne continues to line up in the slot this year, and will be guarded by Justin Rogers most of the day. That means at least 15 catches for at least 230 yards for Mr. Wayne. Seriously, he is going to eat Rogers alive if Luck stays upright. Because of this, Super Dave will not rush any LBs at all, giving Luck as much time as he likes to wait for Mr. Wayne to get open. This oughta be good.

13. If Indy doesn't punt the ball OB, if they ever need to punt (the Rogers on Wayne thing has me nervous,) McKelvin will keep Buffalo in the game, and average more than 20 yards per return.

[ScottDCP]

Just saw the AP game preview. Voiceover dude says (and I really shouldn't use uotes here) "Buffalo relies on getting a pass rush form its front four, and it has the personnel to do it. But so far this year they have only managed twenty three sacks."

Something in that sentence is inconsistent with something else in that sentence. This defense, just like Jauron's, relies on having Hall Of Famers at every other position across the board. Hammer and anvil thinking, without noticing that the anvil is bigger than the hammer. My father in law is fond of a sentence with which I actually agree: "Work with your brain, not your back." Super Dave can't. Idiot. I will stop now.