Fantasy Football Playoff Rankings (Entire postseason)

[Trumpetbdw]

The rankings that follow are based on not just one round of the playoffs, but on the entire postseason. Players are valued based on their expected performance, combined with their expected number of games. Projections are based on the total expected production each player will provide from the WC round, through the Super Bowl.

While many public leagues will use a weekly redraft system, add in weekly multipliers based on how long a player stays on your roster, and allows for shared players, this particular set up is best used as the format for a home league, involving anywhere from 8-12 teams. This is the first year I'm doing something like this with my home league, and I'm looking forward to seeing how everything turns out. We're using our regular point system, and our draft is tomorrow night. Rosters will include 1 QB (team as opposed to player to account for a potential injury), 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 2 FLEX (RB/WR/TE), 1 K, 1 DST, with no bench. There are no transactions following the draft. Your team is your team, highest point total at the end of the SB wins.

There are two types of strategy to employ. The safe approach is to diverisfy your roster as best as possible to ensure that you'll have at least a few players playing multiple games. However, if you're feeling really strongly about a particular team or two, a more risky strategy is to bankroll only a few teams, grabbing as many players as possible from those teams, gambling on that team making a run. Past examples of success with this strategy include those who rode Arizona in 2008, Green Bay in 2010, or the Giants last season, as each of those teams provided 4 games of value.


QB

1. Aaron Rodgers
2. Peyton Manning
3. Matt Ryan
4. Tom Brady
5. Robert Griffin III
6. Matt Schaub
7. Colin Kaepernick
8. Russell Wilson
9. Andrew Luck
10. Joe Flacco
11. Andy Dalton
12. Christian Ponder

First, it's important to note that I have a 49ers-Texans Super Bowl. However, it's equally important to note that a.) I have no feeling for how the playoffs will go this year, and b.) my predictions typically stink. For that reason, even though I don't have Rodgers or Manning advancing to the Super Bowl, I do feel they're the 2 most likely to play in multiple games this postseason. Therefore, I think they need to be rated #1 and #2 in some order.

If you feel strongly about Griffin, Wilson, Luck, or even Dalton winning at least one game, then each could easily rise up the board. These rankings reflect a more conventional approach. I have Griffin the highest because, despite being in a 50/50 game with Seattle, I think Washington wins, and because even if he only plays one game, he has the highest potential for points. With Luck vs. Flacco, I'd say Baltimore is about 65% likely to win that game (I'm adding 10% due to Ray Lewis cancelling out Chuckstrong with his retirement announcement). However, with Flacco's struggles on the road in his potential 2nd game, combined with Luck's expected performance, and a decent chance that Indy pulls the upset, I have Luck one spot higher in the rankings.

RB

1. Arian Foster
2. Ray Rice
3. Alfred Morris
4. Knowshon Moreno
5. Adrian Peterson
6. Stevan Ridley
7. Frank Gore
8. Marshawn Lynch
9. Michael Turner
10. BenJarvus Green-Ellis
11. Vick Ballard
12. DuJuan Harris
13. Alex Green
14. Jacquizz Rodgers
15. Ben Tate
16. Danny Woodhead
17. Willis McGahee
18. Ryan Grant
19. Bernard Pierce
20. LaMichael James
21. Cedric Peerman
22. Ronnie Hillman
23. Shane Vereen
24. Toby Gerhart
25. Evan Royster

The biggest challenge in a draft like this is ranking Adrian Peterson. He's the most likely back to go off in any given week, but at the same time, he's also the least likely to advance. However, one game from Peterson is like 2 games (at least) from most of the rest of this group. Plus, even if you give GB a 75% chance to beat Minnesota this week, that leaves open a 25% chance that Peterson gives you more than one game. That's good enough for me to put him at #5. I like Foster and Morris to play in at least 2 games, while Moreno is also a good bet to do the same. Ray Rice is a pot odds play, considering he's likely to play in 2 games, and is equally likely to have a difference-making performance in at least one of those games. My gamble in this group would be Gore, since I think they advance to the SB, but at the same time, it would be foolish to not account for the decent possibility they don't get past GB (or Was/Sea). The interesting sleeper in the mix is DuJuan Harris, who has been relatively productive for GB over the past few weeks. If you remember back to their run in 2010, James Starks was their best postseason back despite very little opportunity in the regular season. Harris could have that potential this season. Lastly, don't forget about Willis McGahee, who's eligible to return in time for the AFC Championship Game. At the very least, he could carve out a role as the goalline back, with the potential of reclaiming his old job from Knowshon Moreno. In a league like mine, with 2 FLEX spots, McGahee seems to be a must handcuff if I end up with Moreno.


WR

1. Demaryius Thomas
2. Andre Johnson
3. Greg Jennings
4. Julio Jones
5. Eric Decker
6. Wes Welker
7. Randall Cobb
8. Michael Crabtree
9. Roddy White
10. A.J. Green
11. Pierre Garcon
12. Reggie Wayne
13. Jordy Nelson
14. Brandon Lloyd
15. Torrey Smith
16. James Jones
17. Sidney Rice
18. Anquan Boldin
19. Santana Moss
20. Golden Tate
21. Brandon Stokley
22. T.Y. Hilton
23. Randy Moss
24. Kevin Walter
25. Doug Baldwin
26. Jacoby Jones
27. Harry Douglas
28. Josh Morgan
29. Donnie Avery
30. Jairus Wright
31. DeVier Posey
32. Marvin Jones
33. Matt Willis
34. Leonard Hankerson
35. Andrew Hawkins
36. Donald Driver
37. Jerome Simpson
38. A.J. Jenkins
39. Michael Jenkins
40. Lester Jean

A.J. Green is the Adrian Peterson of this group, and probably has a better chance than AD of advancing. He fits in at #10 mainly because the 9 ahead of him are all very productive in their own right, and are much more likely to play more than one game. GB dominates the top of the board, with 4 of the top 16 options. My favorite of the group is Greg Jennings, with the highest upside/biggest risk belonging to Jordy Nelson. Don't discount James Jones too much, following his surprising 14 TD season. He's as likely as anyone to have multiple TDs this postseason. T.Y. Hilton and Doug Baldwin interest me as later round sleepers. Both will be discounted, but if their teams advance, both have the chance to put up solid production.

TE

1. Rob Gronkowski
2. Tony Gonzalez
3. Jermichael Finley
4. Aaron Hernandez
5. Jacob Tamme
6. Vernon Davis
7. Owen Daniels
8. Dennis Pitta
9. Joel Dreessen
10. Jermaine Gresham
11. Kyle Rudolph
12. Zach Miller
13. James Casey
14. Logan Paulsen
15. Delanie Walker

K

1. Matt Prater
2. Shayne Graham
3. Mason Crosby
4. Stephen Gostkowski
5. Matt Bryant
6. Kai Forbath
7. Billy Cundiff/David Akers
8. Justin Tucker
9. Steven Hauschka
10. Adam Vinatieri
11. Blair Walsh
12. Josh Brown

DST

1. Denver
2. Houston
3. San Francisco
4. Green Bay
5. New England
6. Seattle
7. Atlanta
8. Baltimore
9. Washington
10. Cincinnati
11. Minnesota
12. Indianapolis

[Trumpetbdw]

Just completed a draft in this format. First time I ever did one like this. Gotta say it was interesting. It's a PPR league with yardage bonuses, big play bonuses, and 6 points for QB TDs. Here's my roster...

QB- Matt Schaub (11)
RB- BenJarvus Green-Ellis (4)
RB- Jacquizz Rodgers (5)
WR- Demaryius Thomas (1)
WR- Andre Johnson (2)
WR- Greg Jennings (3)
TE- Jermichael Finley (6)
FLEX- Vernon Davis (7)
FLEX- Jarius Wright (10)
K- Mason Crosby (9)
DST- Green Bay (8)


I had the 6th pick (8 teams), and after hedging my bets early on, clearly bankrolled the Packers late. If they meet up with Houston in the SB, I love my chances. Even if one goes 4 games, and the other 3, I should be in great shape. The only real regrets to the draft is that I probably should have taken a shot on Vick Ballard over Lawfirm or Rodgers, and I'm wondering if I should have gone with either LaMichael James or a shot on Willis McGahee instead of Jarius Wright.

But with Rodgers, Manning, and Brady all gone before my pick in round 1, my strategy to wait on QB really paid off. I think Schaub has a great shot at 3 or 4 games, which is worth the risk, especially in round 11.

With each of us only able to take 1 QB, the undrafted QBs were Luck, Dalton, Flacco, and Ponder.

I have a few of the weekly leagues going as well, but thought it would be fun to give this a whirl. The lose and out factor really heightens things, especially when you're sitting on a 1:30 clock.