Now I am just makin' stuff up

[ScottDCP]

Areas I think the Bills need to/will address in FA and draft, in order of need:

CB, DE, OLB, WR, TE, QB, OL, DT

They'll probably draft three fullbacks.

CB - When McGee got hurt, the pass defense got exposed as being thin at corner. Justin Rogers is likely done here. Aaron Williams might get moved to his natural position of Safety. McGee is probably going to be rusticated.

DE - Mark Anderson is and was a situational pass rusher of some skill, not an every down lineman. Kelsay not so much a pass rusher, but a solid small first and second down DE. Kelsay is likely gone as well.

OLB - Nigel Bradham and Arthur Moats, average on their best days. Nick Barnett is almost as old as me.

WR - Thin once David Nelson got injured. They definitely need an extra guy, cause it looks like Stevie is going to limp for the next six years, Graham may or may not pan out, and they insist on carrying bad WRs after that. Donald Jones is not a threat. Never was, never will be. Marcus Easley has played fewer than 6 games in three years. Doubt that will change much. Ruvell Martin has been kept because he makes a play on punt coverage once a month. I will not speak of Brad Smith, though I suspect he will be moving on as well.

TE - Chandler can catch but can't run, and everybody is looking for the next Antonio Gates, if they can't find the next Tony Gonzalez.

QB - Fitz is average, and they want better. Incoming rookies don't look good so far. Tarvaris Jackson is likely to stick around thru August. Tyler Thigpen is one step closer to being a college coach. Seriously, I don't know who theywill find in free agaency who is a significant upgrade over Fitz. Alex Smith is the only one who jumps to mind, because he does take care of the ball, though I know nothing of his arm strength (and in December up here you seriously need it.)

OL - I love Eric Wood, but he is injury-prone. Chris Hairston stinks when either tackle gets hurt. Chad Rinehart is a solid OG who fills in nicely when Urbik gets hurt. I think you see where I am going here.

DT - Dareus was crappy last year. Horrible. About as good as Dontari Poe. Three solid games against weak opponents and that was it. 70% of his time on the field was spent in reverse. Hope he turns it around, but I have no faith in him.

Most of the consistently good players ended up hurt most of the year. New regime, new faces. I think most of the backups will be replaced, and they will probably dump Freddie due to age and injury. If he is lucky he will land in Green Bay or Boston. If they grab a rookie QB just to have a rookie QB and play him because recent rookies have done well I will probably stop watching until these guys get replaced by the new owners. If they find a Russell Wilson, great, but to my way of thinking he was an obvious get and Buddy blew that one, too.

Non-starting rookies from last year who might stick:

Ron Brooks 50/50
Nigel Bradham 75/25
TJ Graham 90/10

David Snow, practice squad maybe
Mana Silva? Gone

[KabaModernFan]

With the hiring of Marrone, I'm going to be very interested in seeing whether or not he heavily pursues his quarterback from Syracuse in Ryan Nassib. Has that been brought up at all yet with the Bills media?

[tubbs1518]

With the hiring of Marrone, I'm going to be very interested in seeing whether or not he heavily pursues his quarterback from Syracuse in Ryan Nassib. Has that been brought up at all yet with the Bills media?

Yes, he said they were interested. Though Nix came out and said they were interested in Nassib before they hired Marrone.

[KabaModernFan]

Yes, he said they were interested. Though Nix came out and said they were interested in Nassib before they hired Marrone.

I like Nassib, so I can't say I really think it would be a terrible direction to go in. Considering how this quarterback class has shaken out, spending a second-round pick on him seems to about fair value.

[ScottDCP]

The first requirement of a qb for me is accuracy, and that is the biggest problem I have heard about with Nassib. This mesh with what you know? Fir background I haven't seen a Syracuse football game in twenty years.

[KabaModernFan]

The first requirement of a qb for me is accuracy, and that is the biggest problem I have heard about with Nassib. This mesh with what you know? Fir background I haven't seen a Syracuse football game in twenty years.

I wouldn't really say Nassib has an accuracy issue. My biggest knock on him would be that he doesn't handle pressure very well. With defenders bearing down on him, he becomes a lot more likely to force his throws and abandon his progression. He has good, not great, arm strength and generally I would say is a pretty accurate passer. He's underrated on the move too and his mechanics are really sound.

[ScottDCP]

Thanks. The bummer for me there is that judgment/decision-making/accuracy under pressure is the number two requirement in my mind.

[ScottDCP]

Updates based on moves to date:

Areas I think the Bills need to/will address in FA and draft, in order of need:

CB, DE, OLB, WR, TE, QB, OL, DT

They'll probably draft three fullbacks.

CB - When McGee got hurt, the pass defense got exposed as being thin at corner. Justin Rogers is likely done here. Aaron Williams might get moved to his natural position of Safety. McGee is probably going to be rusticated.
-McGee has been given the boot. No surprise. Resigned Leodis, and are going to give him a shot at LCB. Overpaid for a guy who isn't a whole lot better there than A. Williams is. McKelvin OK in slot, in man coverage. Zones escape him. Anything requiring a read of the offense gives him trouble. Not saying anything in particuar, but he is best at reacting to action than anticipating based on study. Still a problem position.

DE - Mark Anderson is and was a situational pass rusher of some skill, not an every down lineman. Kelsay not so much a pass rusher, but a solid small first and second down DE. Kelsay is likely gone as well.
-Kelsay has retired. No surprise, nothing changed.

OLB - Nigel Bradham and Arthur Moats, average on their best days. Nick Barnett is almost as old as me.
-Barnett is gone. Replaced by Manny Lawson. Gotta love stockpiling dudes who couldn't get on the field for other bad teams. I don't even know how much they are paying him, and don't care. 30 years old and not an especially good pass rusher. What has been gained? Zipper.

WR - Thin once David Nelson got injured. They definitely need an extra guy, cause it looks like Stevie is going to limp for the next six years, Graham may or may not pan out, and they insist on carrying bad WRs after that. Donald Jones is not a threat. Never was, never will be. Marcus Easley has played fewer than 6 games in three years. Doubt that will change much. Ruvell Martin has been kept because he makes a play on punt coverage once a month. I will not speak of Brad Smith, though I suspect he will be moving on as well.
-The David Nelson cut angers me still. The Donald Jones cut not at all, and the latter was not a surprise at all. Weakish position made weaker. Awesome. Whats it called? Creating a need where there didn't used to be one. Nice.

TE - Chandler can catch but can't run, and everybody is looking for the next Antonio Gates, if they can't find the next Tony Gonzalez.
-They are making noise about drafting a TE. No surprise, especially given their feelings on guys under 300 pounds coming off knee injuries.

QB - Fitz is average, and they want better. Incoming rookies don't look good so far. Tarvaris Jackson is likely to stick around thru August. Tyler Thigpen is one step closer to being a college coach. Seriously, I don't know who theywill find in free agaency who is a significant upgrade over Fitz. Alex Smith is the only one who jumps to mind, because he does take care of the ball, though I know nothing of his arm strength (and in December up here you seriously need it.)
-Fitz is gone, but hey! they kept Jackson for marketing purposes I guess, cause he sure as hell cant play better than Fitz or Thigpen (who has been quietly ignored all offseason.) No surprises. They are apparently banking on finding Tom Brady in this year's draft. Genius. Planning for the perfect outcome in a tournament with 31 other players.

OL - I love Eric Wood, but he is injury-prone. Chris Hairston stinks when either tackle gets hurt. Chad Rinehart is a solid OG who fills in nicely when Urbik gets hurt. I think you see where I am going here.
-So they gave Urbik the Injured (knee injury every year) a raise, and let Levitre, the only O-Linemen to not get hurt the last four years walk. I get it,, they dont think a guard should make 8M a year. Fine. Also let Rhinehart go. What was that I said about the Nelson cut? Oh yeah, way to create a need where there didn't used to be one. Is the math this simple? Levitre 8M + Rhinehart 1.5M+Brown .75M darn near equals Levitre 5M (the most I think they want to pay a guard) + Urbik 3.5M + Rhinehart 1.5M, since Rhinehart will play more than Urbik anyway.

Oh yeah, they resigned Colin Brown. Perhaps angling for Chance Womack? I wouldn't necessarily be upset by that in and of itself, but jiminy crickets, they had access to a guy who is top 5 at his position. Now they get to burn another pick replacing something they already owned. Genius.

DT - Dareus was crappy last year. Horrible. About as good as Dontari Poe. Three solid games against weak opponents and that was it. 70% of his time on the field was spent in reverse. Hope he turns it around, but I have no faith in him.
-I suspect they are going to play 3-4,4-3 depending on who is available. Right now, as they have divested theselves of a realistic chance at 4 good linebackers, I suspect more 4-3. Big deal. Not important to me. What IS important is that they have not cut Mark Anderson, who is still overpaid and should never be on the field on first and less than twenty.

SAFETY - They dumped George Wilson. Da'Norris Searcy is very very average on a good day. They have created another need where one did not formerly exist.


Most of the consistently good players ended up hurt most of the year. New regime, new faces. I think most of the backups will be replaced, and they will probably dump Freddie due to age and injury. If he is lucky he will land in Green Bay or Boston. If they grab a rookie QB just to have a rookie QB and play him because recent rookies have done well I will probably stop watching until these guys get replaced by the new owners. If they find a Russell Wilson, great, but to my way of thinking he was an obvious get and Buddy blew that one, too.

Non-starting rookies from last year who might stick:

Ron Brooks 50/50
Nigel Bradham 75/25
TJ Graham 90/10

David Snow, practice squad maybe
Mana Silva? Gone

I think they will draft a running back in the top four rounds, again, and cut Freddie at the end of training camp. This regime is looking an awful lot like the paranoid delusional grouping under Gregg Williams, getting rid of all possible veteran leaders because they anticipate negative vibrations and discontent. Expecting to bring in all the old leaders form previous teams with whom they are comfortable. Trick is, most of those guys have already signed elsewhere, for whatever value they may have had. Sweet, how even the simplest overly complicated nuttery can be exposed early. Seriously, this team now has big holes at RDE, OLB (2,) S, CB(2,) WR(3,) OG, and QB. They actually look worse than either of the last two years, and that is before considering their apparent plan to rely on rookies.

Congratulations Mr Brady. Your life just got even easier.

Sorry, I need to take my own negative vibrations elsewhere.

[ScottDCP]

At this pace, I will be shocked to see them win five games this year. Tarvaris Jackson? He has only ever duped people into thinking he was a capable QB when he was handing off to Adrian Peterson and playing the Lions twice a year.

[Pruitt]

Could this be a case of a new regime trying to put it's stamp on things?

Makes sense on the one hand because the old regime sucked.

However, the Levitre move and the Lawson signing are not good harbingers. My brother (Bills fanatic) is still yelling about the lack of effort to sign Alex Smith. Not a huge fan of Smith, but as I said elsewhere, Tarvaris Jackson's claim to fame is that he is proficient at skipping passes to receivers. Like Quincy Carter without the issues. But who knows? A 3rd round rookie QB took a team into the playoffs, and while that has only happened once in the history of the league, it just may happen again.

But what do I know? I'd never heard of Manny Lawson until a week ago.