2013 Roster

[edave]

This is my first shot at sorting out the 2013 roster, as always it starts with money.

Assuming Saturday stays retired, there is just under a million of dead money for 2013, most of it Saturday's (825,000). There are a bunch of tiny numbers for guys who will be under contract this coming season and I'm not sure where they came from but spotrac listed them so I carried them too. I think all the other dead contracts that have been hanging around (Nick Barnett, Justin Harrell, etc) are finally gone.

For the sake of this list, I have Shields, Dietrich-Smith, Benson, Jones and Crabtree resigned with first year contract values that you might find objectionable (or not; the Shields estimate could be too low). I'm assuming Grant, Francois, Jennings, Walden and Zombo are leaving. I had to start somewhere.

That leaves the team with 64 active contracts. The top 51 works out to $120,928,551, or just under the likely 2013 cap but ignores the $7M the team will be rolling over.

One more thing, Kevin Hughes is on this list and doesn't even have a number yet or he'd be on my updated roster.

              Player    Pos      Cap Hit
       Aaron Rodgers     QB    9,750,000
     Charles Woodson      S    9,437,500
   Jermichael Finley     TE    8,750,000
     Tramon Williams     CB    8,500,000
           A.J. Hawk     LB    7,050,000
        Ryan Pickett     DE    6,700,000
           B.J. Raji     DT    6,595,000
         Josh Sitton      G    5,550,000
       Clay Matthews     LB    4,910,000
      Desmond Bishop     LB    4,764,000
        Jordy Nelson     WR    3,975,000
         James Jones     WR    3,750,000
        Mason Crosby      K    3,150,000
           T.J. Lang      G    3,100,000
           John Kuhn     RB    2,543,750
        Bryan Bulaga      T    2,125,500
       Derek Sherrod      T    1,800,546
        Jarrett Bush     CB    1,783,333
          Nick Perry     LB    1,704,375
      Morgan Burnett      S    1,541,775
         Sam Shields     CB    1,500,000 *
     Andrew Quarless     TE    1,368,606
   Marshall Newhouse      T    1,360,462
         Tim Masthay      P    1,105,000
 Evan Dietrich-Smith      C    1,000,000 *
           Mike Neal     DT      920,000
       Cedric Benson     RB      900,000 *
        Jerel Worthy     DE      897,319
        Randall Cobb     WR      875,297
       Jeff Saturday      C      825,000
         Brett Goode      C      821,250
       Casey Hayward     CB      752,201
          Brad Jones    ILB      700,000 *
          Alex Green     RB      691,250
        James Starks     RB      655,075
         C.J. Wilson     DE      642,590
         Davon House     CB      630,145
      Graham Harrell     QB      630,000
       D.J. Williams     TE      604,500
        Tom Crabtree     TE      600,000 *
          D.J. Smith     LB      580,788
         Ryan Taylor     TE      569,794
    Jamari Lattimore     LB      556,667
       M.D. Jennings      S      555,833
        Mike Daniels     DT      555,146
    Jerron McMillian      S      555,146
       Brandon Saine     RB      555,000
       DuJuan Harris     RB      555,000
     Terrell Manning     LB      522,870
     Sean Richardson      S      481,667
        Dezman Moses     LB      481,166
         Don Barclay      G      480,833
      Jarrett Boykin     WR      480,000
       Jordan Miller      T      480,000
         Jeremy Ross     WR      480,000
      Greg Van Roten      G      480,000
        Kevin Hughes      T      480,000
     Brandon Bostick     TE      405,000
        B.J. Coleman     QB      405,000
        Andrew Datko      T      405,000
       Garth Gerhart      G      405,000
           Joe Gibbs      G      405,000
       Micah Johnson     LB      405,000
         James Nixon     CB      405,000
         Chaz Powell  CB,WR      405,000
        Andrew Datko      T       34,422
        B.J. Coleman     QB       34,422
        Lawrence Guy     DT       22,950
          Vic So'oto     LB        2,833
       Duane Bennett     RB        2,667
         Dion Turner     CB        2,000
       Marcus Rivers     WR        1,333
      Shaky Smithson     WR          667
          Ryan Grant     RB            0
        Rob Francois    ILB            0
       Greg Jennings     WR            0
         Erik Walden    OLB            0
         Frank Zombo    OLB            0

                             127,150,678

[mikesteelnation1]

Woodson has a monster cap hit. How much is unamortized bonus money accelerating in and how much is base salary? Do you see them keeping him for that amount or negotiating it down? (I know you said there was little dead money left, but different folks define dead money in different ways. Some, its post June 1 cuts and injury settlements, others its unamortized bonus money, others include both) .

I'll give a similar scenario.. Harrison is scheduled for a $10 mil cap hit in 2013. Almost $5 mil of that is unamortized bonus acceleration, with a base of $6 mil. We can both agree neither guy is the $10 mil a year player he was when he got the contract. Harrison won't be back unless he takes a significant pay cut to his salary, like making $1 mil. Nearly $5 mil has already been paid, and hits the cap whether we cut him or not. We could cut him post June 1 to split the dead money, but won't for 2 reasons. When we cut our decorated guys, we do so early, so they have some control over where they go next, and 2nd if we carry him that long we have to fit the $6 mil salary under the "rule of 51". We don't have the ability to do that, its steep pay cut or bust.

Any parallels with the Woodson contract? And your thoughts on it? Does he stay, and to what ends?

I'd also like your thoughts on Finley. My best bud is a Gb fan, and abhors keeping him for such a high number. Just my opinion, but that's way too much dough for a te, especially one who's play certainly hasn't been commensurate to that level.

Nice idea though Dave... I'll have to do something similar for Pittsburgh. Were firmly in cap hell, and will be for at least 3 more years. You guys are in a much better situation..

[edave]

Woodson has a monster cap hit. How much is unamortized bonus money accelerating in and how much is base salary? Do you see them keeping him for that amount or negotiating it down? (I know you said there was little dead money left, but different folks define dead money in different ways. Some, its post June 1 cuts and injury settlements, others its unamortized bonus money, others include both).

I'm not an accountant and doing it right would take forever so I just consider any active contract as not a part of dead money (even though any signing bonuses are effectively dead). If/when someone is released, things change. My point about dead money was more related to some old contracts the Packers had been carrying around. Nick Barnett was injured in week 4 or so of 2010 and has now played two full seasons in Buffalo yet was still on the Packers books because of bonuses.

As for Woodson, his 2013 numbers are close to his 2012 numbers (and he doesn't appear to have any bonuses that would impact the cap, but those things tend to blindside me):

 Year       Base  Signing       Misc     Cap Hit
 2010  6,700,000  800,000    900,000   8,400,000
 2011  7,850,000           3,050,000  10,900,000
 2012  6,500,000           5,000,000  11,500,000
 2013  6,500,000           2,937,500   9,437,500
 2014  6,500,000           3,500,000  10,000,000
                                               0

I lean toward letting him go as do many fans but QB1 wants him back. If he is coming back, a more cap friendly contract will certainly help. I can't see anyone else in the league giving a guy with 2 recent shoulder injuries nearly 10 million.

I'll give a similar scenario.. Harrison is scheduled for a $10 mil cap hit in 2013. Almost $5 mil of that is unamortized bonus acceleration, with a base of $6 mil. We can both agree neither guy is the $10 mil a year player he was when he got the contract. Harrison won't be back unless he takes a significant pay cut to his salary, like making $1 mil. Nearly $5 mil has already been paid, and hits the cap whether we cut him or not. We could cut him post June 1 to split the dead money, but won't for 2 reasons. When we cut our decorated guys, we do so early, so they have some control over where they go next, and 2nd if we carry him that long we have to fit the $6 mil salary under the "rule of 51". We don't have the ability to do that, its steep pay cut or bust.

Any parallels with the Woodson contract? And your thoughts on it? Does he stay, and to what ends?

I'm often confused about which bonus values are impacted by which moves. Harrison has a $2M signing bonus in 2013 which certainly effects the cap (it's part of the guarantee) but isn't everything else wiped out if they cut him before the new league year?

So maybe they're pretty similar?

I'd also like your thoughts on Finley. My best bud is a Gb fan, and abhors keeping him for such a high number. Just my opinion, but that's way too much dough for a te, especially one who's play certainly hasn't been commensurate to that level.

Finley is staying for 2013 unless Jennings miraculously resigns. Perhaps even then. Beyond that, who knows.

I thought Finley played really well from about week 8 on (even with the shoulder injury) with one really bad exception. There was a play where he was coming out of the backfield and supposed to block a linebacker. He had two to choose from and wandered by both leading to the RB getting lit up. It was really bad.

And then there's his mouth, and his agent.

I just can't see McCarthy giving up 2 of his downfield weapons in one year voluntarily and Finley is a weapon. Defenses play him a special way. They don't really care about Crabtree, Taylor or Williams.

I don't know why his base salary is so high this year but it is, here are his contract details:

 Year       Base  Signing       Misc    Cap Hit
 2012    950,000  500,000  3,800,000  5,250,000
 2013  4,450,000  500,000  3,800,000  8,750,000
                                        500,000

The contract a lot of fans are talking about is AJ Hawk, who would cost a lot to cut:

 Year       Base    Signing       Misc    Cap Hit
 2011  1,150,000  1,600,000  1,800,000  4,550,000
 2012  4,400,000  1,600,000    550,000  6,550,000
 2013  4,900,000  1,600,000    550,000  7,050,000
 2014  4,900,000  1,600,000  1,050,000  7,550,000
 2015  5,400,000  1,600,000  1,050,000  8,050,000
                                        4,800,000

Nice idea though Dave... I'll have to do something similar for Pittsburgh. Were firmly in cap hell, and will be for at least 3 more years. You guys are in a much better situation..

Things are OK in Green Bay but are about to get more complicated. Matthews, Raji, Rodgers and a host of others are lining up for new deals.

[mikesteelnation1]

I'm with you 100% edave, I'm certainly no accountant. I'm just a biz guy who understands the premise of what is an unamortized acceleration to the cap, in the event of a player being cut or traded. Many sites use the original contract to deduce these numbers, with only the real number to cut a guy being explored on an in depth fan site.

That's where it gets muddy as a crawfish pond. (Lived in la too long). So many other factors.. ones germaine sites don't point out...

Case in point, Harrison has a $2 million hit for his signing bonus this year, but if we cut him the unamortized $2 million for next year (that was pro rated by years on his contact), immediately accelerates into his cap hit THIS year. Any guaranteed money in a players contract that is pro rated over the length of said contact immediately accelerates into the current cap year if s guy is cut or traded. The money was paid by the original team, and prorated to finesse the cap number. That team can never erase that money they already paid the guy. It's why Atlanta didn't cut Vick. They waited for the NFL to suspend him indefinitely, and him to be guilty of a crime. It voided his deal, and their accountability for his unamortized bonus money. Had they cut him prior, they would have owned that cap hit..

As do any other bonuses considered likely to be earned. Bonuses not likely to be earned do not count vs the cap. For instance, a guy who has played in every game for 5 years has a bonus tied to playing in 8 games. The league would consider that likely to be earned, thus it counts vs the cap the next year. On the flip, if a bonus condition is earning dpoy its not likely to be earned, thus if he gets it it counts zero to any cap spending, just cash spending.

If we cut Harrison we owe his signing bonus number of $4 mil owed to the cap left to be paid since its inception (2013 & 14), and nearly a million of likely to be earned bonuses he got last year. Hence why its nearly $5 million. I didn't do that math, just read someone else's on a Steelers site and it totally made sense after I saw it and looked at the numbers again ( the extra almost million bugged the crap outta me).

Hawks contract is a lead balloon. Good lord. 3 years left on it, with a $5 mil cap acceleration to cut him. Based on his play, he's getting cut June 2nd, when the pack can split the $5 mil between 13 and 14. I'd almost expect that to happen, unless they think he can be an impact player this year and like Harrison willing to accept a $1 mil salary. Hawk def won't be, he's not in the twilight like Harrison, admittedly willing to take a hometown discount to stay with the team. Hawk isn't beloved by the fan base, and he's young enough to get something more lucrative and for longer terms elsewhere.

Just a guess, an educated one, but hawk is cut June 2, and I feel pretty strong about that. Gb isn't known for their defense, and given that hawk isn't one of their best. Thompson isn't paying him $7 mil this year, knowing he's a $4 mil cap hit next year with his ltbe's if he doesn't perform to his contract (like he hasn't) when they can cut him for $5 mil and free up a roster spot. Keeping him for a year in hopes of him being an all pro costs the pack $11 mil if he isn't and they cut him next year, or $2.5 mil this year and next( if he's cut post June 1st) with an overall savings of $6 mil. The pack are judicious with spending.

I don't pretend to know as much about your team as you do, but I understand Thompson's proclivities. Given that and woods cap number, and the hawk cap number you brought up, I don't see either guy there next year. Wood might be, with a massive restructuring of his contract. Doesn't seem he has much dead money there, but he's sure as hell not getting 10 mil either.

[edave]

Hawks contract is a lead balloon. Good lord. 3 years left on it, with a $5 mil cap acceleration to cut him. Based on his play, he's getting cut June 2nd, when the pack can split the $5 mil between 13 and 14. I'd almost expect that to happen, unless they think he can be an impact player this year and like Harrison willing to accept a $1 mil salary. Hawk def won't be, he's not in the twilight like Harrison, admittedly willing to take a hometown discount to stay with the team. Hawk isn't beloved by the fan base, and he's young enough to get something more lucrative and for longer terms elsewhere.

Just a guess, an educated one, but hawk is cut June 2, and I feel pretty strong about that. Gb isn't known for their defense, and given that hawk isn't one of their best. Thompson isn't paying him $7 mil this year, knowing he's a $4 mil cap hit next year with his ltbe's if he doesn't perform to his contract (like he hasn't) when they can cut him for $5 mil and free up a roster spot. Keeping him for a year in hopes of him being an all pro costs the pack $11 mil if he isn't and they cut him next year, or $2.5 mil this year and next( if he's cut post June 1st) with an overall savings of $6 mil. The pack are judicious with spending.

I don't pretend to know as much about your team as you do, but I understand Thompson's proclivities. Given that and woods cap number, and the hawk cap number you brought up, I don't see either guy there next year. Wood might be, with a massive restructuring of his contract. Doesn't seem he has much dead money there, but he's sure as hell not getting 10 mil either.

It's possible that A.J. Hawk is gone or that he significantly redoes his deal. What happens with Hawk may also effect Brad Jones who I penciled in a 700K for next year. That may be optimistically low or if Hawks stays with his contract unchanged, Jones may be elsewhere.

Hawks current deal was signed just after the Super Bowl when they decided they liked the steady combination of Hawk and Bishop in place of the more erratic Barnett. Unfortunately, in 2011 Hawk became an attack point for teams with tight ends and/or competent backs. That led to a new plan for 2012, keeping Hawk on the sidelines on 3rd down fairly often. Combined with a second half fall off in effectiveness against the run (I think, I still need to finish my gamebook snap count data parsing code to be sure) and his 2012 season may look OK statistically, but it was not a win from my perspective. The rise of Jones, who had converted from OLB helped a bit but the Packers were short handed as the season wore on and just couldn't hide A.J. in the passing game.

I think the staff still loves him, but to me he clearly earned a demotion in 2012 and I've always been one of his supporters. Many Packer fans have wanted him run out of town on rails most seasons since he was drafted. So we'll see.

[edave]

After dumping Woodson and bumping the salaries for Shields and EDS assuming 2nd and 3rd round tenders and bonuses, here's where we are:

              Player    Pos      Cap Hit
       Aaron Rodgers     QB    9,750,000
   Jermichael Finley     TE    8,750,000
     Tramon Williams     CB    8,500,000
           A.J. Hawk     LB    7,050,000
        Ryan Pickett     DE    6,700,000
           B.J. Raji     DT    6,595,000
         Josh Sitton      G    5,550,000
       Clay Matthews     LB    4,910,000
      Desmond Bishop     LB    4,764,000
        Jordy Nelson     WR    3,975,000
         James Jones     WR    3,750,000
        Mason Crosby      K    3,150,000
           T.J. Lang      G    3,100,000
         Sam Shields     CB    2,600,000 *
           John Kuhn     RB    2,543,750
        Bryan Bulaga      T    2,125,500
       Derek Sherrod      T    1,800,546
        Jarrett Bush     CB    1,783,333
          Nick Perry     LB    1,704,375
 Evan Dietrich-Smith      C    1,700,000 *
      Morgan Burnett      S    1,541,775
     Andrew Quarless     TE    1,368,606
   Marshall Newhouse      T    1,360,462
         Tim Masthay      P    1,105,000
           Mike Neal     DT      920,000
       Cedric Benson     RB      900,000 *
        Jerel Worthy     DE      897,319
        Randall Cobb     WR      875,297
       Jeff Saturday      C      875,000
         Brett Goode      C      821,250
       Casey Hayward     CB      752,201
          Brad Jones    ILB      700,000 *
          Alex Green     RB      691,250
        James Starks     RB      655,075
         C.J. Wilson     DE      642,590
         Davon House     CB      630,145
      Graham Harrell     QB      630,000
       D.J. Williams     TE      604,500
        Tom Crabtree     TE      600,000 *
          D.J. Smith     LB      580,788
         Ryan Taylor     TE      569,794
    Jamari Lattimore     LB      556,667
       M.D. Jennings      S      555,833
    Jerron McMillian      S      555,146
        Mike Daniels     DT      555,146
       Brandon Saine     RB      555,000
       DuJuan Harris     RB      555,000
     Terrell Manning     LB      522,870
     Sean Richardson      S      481,667
        Dezman Moses     LB      481,166
         Don Barclay      G      480,833
      Greg Van Roten      G      480,000
         Jeremy Ross     WR      480,000
       Jordan Miller      T      480,000
        Kevin Hughes      T      480,000
      Jarrett Boykin     WR      480,000
         Chaz Powell  CB,WR      405,000
         James Nixon     CB      405,000
       Micah Johnson     LB      405,000
           Joe Gibbs      G      405,000
       Garth Gerhart      G      405,000
        Andrew Datko      T      405,000
        B.J. Coleman     QB      405,000
     Brandon Bostick     TE      405,000
        Andrew Datko      T       34,422
        B.J. Coleman     QB       34,422
        Lawrence Guy     DT       22,950
          Vic So'oto     LB        2,833
       Duane Bennett     RB        2,667
         Dion Turner     CB        2,000
       Marcus Rivers     WR        1,333
      Shaky Smithson     WR          667
         Frank Zombo    OLB            0
         Erik Walden    OLB            0
       Greg Jennings     WR            0
          Ryan Grant     RB            0
        Rob Francois    ILB            0

                             119,563,178

This character makes a good case for resigning Walden and has an interesting draft to boot.

http://www.footballsfuture.com/phpBB...c.php?t=514010


Tom Silverstein thinks Robert Francois is going to be back.

http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/191438421.html

I can maybe see that, but ILB is crowded, we need to see what Manning has to offer and there will be new blood in the draft.

It was reported on packers.com that Saturday's dead money is $825,000 so I'm sticking with that for now. And while Kevin Hughes is still on this list, he still doesn't have an assigned number.

[edave]

With Johnny Jolly (@JJolly97) being reinstated I've read that effective Monday (when his reinstatement will go through) he will be under contract with the Packers for 1 year, $2.5M.

Spotrac shows his 2010 salary was going to be $2,521,000 so that makes sense. We'll see what happens over the next couple days.

[edave]

I've been collaborating with a bunch of folks online (and begging @Jason_OTC for help with the Raji contract) to create the most accurate and up to date salary cap view we can. I updated tonight with the signing by Evan Dietrich-Smith and figured I should share here.

Here's my cap document and the best of the bunch (it may not have EDS on it yet, but it is useful in many other ways).

The TL;DR is 65 contracts for 117M, 1M in dead money, 7M in carryover on a 123M cap.