Page 2 of 2 FirstFirst 12
Results 11 to 19 of 19

Thread: Players of Interest

  1. #11
       
    Join Date
    Dec 2010
    Location
    Atlanta, GA
    Posts
    11,544
    Quote Originally Posted by tubbs1518 View Post
    I disagree about Stafford Packa. I think he is in for a HUGE year. The addition of Bush to that team will be huge. They haven't really had a running game and Bush gives them that. He also should get huge production out of Bush catching the ball out of the backfield and creating big plays.
    I see Bush as a huge threat catching passes. I don't see him as the every down running back Detroit needs. Last season he only had two games over 100 yards. Smartly, I think, the Dolphins limited his carries, 16th in the league. His body couldn't take more punishment. He had some big games, but he was also unproductive. He ended up 17th in YPC among running backs.

    So I like him as another weapon for Stafford, but I don't think he's the answer to their ground game. And I think that if they try to use him as though he were, he'll break.

  2. #12
       
    Join Date
    Jul 2011
    Location
    Kentucky
    Posts
    3,700
    Blog Entries
    2
    I don't think he will run the ball 25 times a game, but he is a good guy to split carries with Leshoure. Give Bush 12-15 carries a game and 4-6 catches a game. I actually like Bush in fantasy this year too.

  3. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by tubbs1518 View Post
    I disagree about Stafford Packa. I think he is in for a HUGE year. The addition of Bush to that team will be huge. They haven't really had a running game and Bush gives them that. He also should get huge production out of Bush catching the ball out of the backfield and creating big plays.
    Stafford has been good but not great. He has literally the best WR in the game hands down nd it would usually take him until he was down by 20 pts before he would start getting him the ball. Even in his huge year, he had a ton of attempts and INTs. I don't think Bush makes that much of a difference.
    Part owner of the 13-time world champion Green Bay Packers

    1929-1930-1931-1936-1939-1944-1961-1962-1965-1966-1967-1996-2010

  4. #14
       
    Join Date
    Jul 2011
    Location
    Kentucky
    Posts
    3,700
    Blog Entries
    2
    Quote Originally Posted by packa7x View Post
    Stafford has been good but not great. He has literally the best WR in the game hands down nd it would usually take him until he was down by 20 pts before he would start getting him the ball. Even in his huge year, he had a ton of attempts and INTs. I don't think Bush makes that much of a difference.
    Bush makes a huge difference. They have a pretty good 1/2 punch with him and Leshoure, Bush adds a huge advantage out of the backfield because no LB can cover him. They won't throw nearly as many times and will be much more efficient this year.

  5. #15
       
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Location
    Elkton, MD
    Posts
    7,039
    Blog Entries
    1
    Small pet peeve of mine, and minor since I know it's a generality. We tend to throw around the number "25 times per game" when it comes to rushing attempts. Only 8 players in the history of the game have averaged 24.5 attempts in a single season, and it never happened prior to James Wilder in 1984. The latest to do it was Larry Johnson in 2006. This past season, only Arian Foster, Adrian Peterson, and Doug Martin avg more than 20 carries per game, with Foster leading the way at 21.9.

    Reggie Bush avg under 15 carries per game last year, and only caught 35 balls. In Detroit, I can easily see him matching those carries, and he has a chance to double those receptiions. He won't be the defensive focus like he was in Miami. Miami was important for him, because he proved he can stay on the field. He played 31 of 32 possible games over the past 2 seasons, and avg 5 YPC in 2011. Working with a better offense in Detroit, and allowing Mikel "Rode The Boat" LeShoure to slide into that complimentary role will make that entire offense much more effective. As I said earlier, getting Burleson back, and hopefully adding Broyles into the mix will give Stafford a legit chance to turn some of that volume into improved efficiency. Detroit is going to be a much improved team this year.
    "I'd knock your brains out, then pick them up later."

    -Marion Motley

  6. #16
       
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Location
    Elkton, MD
    Posts
    7,039
    Blog Entries
    1
    Quote Originally Posted by packa7x View Post
    Stafford-eh...he won't be great. Solid QB2
    Brady-I think he drops. I like their new pick out of Marshall and Amendola at WR, but the offense is banged up.
    Forte-Solid, mid tier RB
    McCoy-Explosive year.
    Fitz-Top 5-7 WR.
    Bowe-WR2
    Welker-On par with his last few years
    Davis-450 yards 3 TDs
    Pitta-top 3rd
    Thanks for the response, and for touching on everyone. My thoughts...

    Stafford's volume alone has made him a decent QB1 over the past couple of seasons. It's also made him a relatively consistent performer in terms of fantasy production. He finished in the top 15 at the position 12 out of 16 weeks, which doesn't sound like much until you realize that he equaled Romo, Ryan, Griffin, and Newton in that regard, and Rodgers only finished within the top 15 11 different times. Plus, I still think there's growth there. I probably trust Stafford this year more than any of the top 3 sophomore QBs.

    It will be tough for Brady not to drop off a bit this year. It all depends on how people value him. I mentioned the possibility for over-correction in an earlier post. He'll be an interesting name to keep an eye on.

    Forte- With Marc Trestman as OC in Oakland, Charlie Garner avg 5.3 YPC and had 91 catches, avg over 10 yards per catch, on his way to 1903 yards from scrimmage. Matty Forte is licking his chops with this offense, and is in for his most productive season yet. In a PPR league, I'd put him in the top 7, behind only AD, Martin, Charles, Spiller, Rice, and Foster.

    McCoy- Is probably just a touch behind Forte for me. He could finish top 3-4 at the position, and put up huge numbers again, but there's a little uncertainty regarding how successfully Chip Kelly will be able to utilize him, and how much Bryce Brown will eat into his touches in an effort to keep both healthy.

    Fitz- I agree, except that I think he's top 3. 100+ catches, 1400+ yards, and 12 TDs. In other words, exactly what he used to do when he had a competent QB to work with.

    Bowe- Borderline Top 10. Look at what he's been able to do with Matt Cassel throwing him the rock. Yes, I think Alex Smith is a giant upgrade over Cassel, which is more of an indictment against Matt Cassel than anything. But Smith is at the very least decent, and I think Andy Reid is the perfect fit to inject life into this offense. Bowe and Jamaal Charles are in for gigantic seasons.

    Welker- Shared my thoughts earlier. He'll be much better for Denver than Denver is for him. His numbers are going to drop dramatically.

    Davis- Perhaps he needed the bye to get on the same page with Kaepernick. In the playoffs, he was again dominant, despite being non-existent after Kaepernick took over midseason. I think their chemistry carries over, especially with Crabtree out. Even if Davis gets 10-12 snaps at WR per game, I can see him avg 4-5 catches, 55-60 yds, and a TD every other game. Even the low end of that, which equals 64/880/8 would make him a top 3-4 TE. He's currently being drafted as the 8th or 9th TE off the board. If that continues, that's great value. You won't find anyone with higher upside at that spot. Pair him with Jared Cook, and that's a nice sky's-the-limit TE tandem for a very reasonable cost.

    Pitta- Not sure what you mean by top 3rd. In my mind, he's got to become Anquan Boldin, which gives him the upside of Jason Witten. I'd much rather grab Pitta in round 7 than Witten in round 3 or 4. If I were to predict the top 5 finishers at TE, I'd have Graham, Davis, Witten, Gronk, and Pitta. Gronk is clearly the wild-card, but even half a season from him, plus a replacement level TE like Martellus Bennett would yield results behind only Graham. I think Tony Gonzalez drops off to around the 7th or 8th most productive. Jared Cook is the one sleeper who could ultimately crack that top 5 in a suddenly interesting Rams offense.
    "I'd knock your brains out, then pick them up later."

    -Marion Motley

  7. #17
       
    Join Date
    Dec 2010
    Location
    Atlanta, GA
    Posts
    11,544
    Quote Originally Posted by Trumpetbdw View Post
    Detroit is going to be a much improved team this year.
    Obviously, they won't have to do much to improve on last season. But to be really good on offense, they'll need to get their o-line sorted out. Sounds like they don't know who their best 5 are right now.

  8. #18
    Catching up on stuff, thought I'd weigh in. I'm way behind on FF prep, so I reserve the right to change any and all of these opinions.

    Matthew Stafford - I'd draft as a later QB1, but I'd want to have a strong backup if I have him. Having the best WR in the league is a huge help, obviously. Having a defense that, IMO, has huge question marks will also help (at least in terms of fantasy numbers). The lack of a non-Megatron passing option and a weak O-line scares me a lot, but if I were employing a QB-late strategy, he'd be one of the guys I'd target. Ultimately, I've learned not to underestimate QBs on teams that have offensive weapons and need to score lots to be successful; the Lions qualify on both ends.

    Tom Brady - Tom Brady will not be on any of my teams this year. I am terrified about all the weapons he lost. I'm worried about his age. Eventually, Father Time always wins. Right now, I have him as my #5 QB (behind Rodgers, Brees, Ryan, and Newton), and if I don't get one of those four, I'm probably waiting and getting a combo of one of the young guys (the rookies from last year plus Stafford and CK) plus a more consistent veteran (Eli, Romo, etc.). There's a good chance I'm predicting doom and gloom too early. I'd just rather be a year or 2 early, than a year late.

    Matt Forte - I should probably disqualify myself from commenting here. I'll just say that this is the first time he's had someone who actually knows anything about offense coaching him.

    LeSean McCoy - I'd like to see a little bit from preseason, but I'm still pretty high on him. My hunch is that Kelly knows what he has and will use him appropriately. Mid to low level #1 RB.

    Larry Fitzgerald - I know Palmer is better than the parade of awfulness that was featured in Arizona last year. I don't know if I'd feel great if he was my #1 WR, but I'd feel great if he was my #2.

    Dwayne Bowe- Replace Palmer with Smith and Arizona with KC in the above analysis. Though I'd have Fitz higher.

    Wes Welker - I worry about what happens when guys leave the Patriots. Bad stuff happens. Also, reread the stuff I talked about in terms of age with Brady, and remember that Peyton is older than Brady, and missed an entire season due to neck problems.

    Vernon Davis and Dennis Pitta - Any TE not named Jimmy Graham (or Gronk if he's healthy) is not worth reaching for. You'll probably be fine with either of them I guess.

  9. #19
       
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Location
    Elkton, MD
    Posts
    7,039
    Blog Entries
    1
    DBF- Thanks for chiming in on both threads. I'll take this opportunity to update/clarify my thoughts, which probably haven't changed all that much.

    Like I said in the other one, it's all about actual value. I think Stafford and Eli Manning are both similar in value. I like Stafford a little more, due to the upside and sheer volume of his attempts, and would love to pair both of them depending on the strategy. But it seems that both are falling behind the guys like the 4 youngsters. I'd probably put Stafford slightly ahead of all 4, with Eli slightly behind Kaepernick, but essentially even with Romo and Luck, and ahead of RGIII and Wilson.

    Which leads into RGIII. His risk level makes me sour on him as a starter. But we all know his upside. He is probably my favorite choice to pair with any of these other QBs, since he possesses the best upside to crash the top 5. That said, more often than not, despite what we saw from Adrian Peterson, Peyton Manning, and Jamaal Charles last year, most players coming off of injury tend to underperform their value the following season. So the caution flag is certainly still up on RGIII.

    Brady is interesting. As a top 3 QB, he's certainly not worth it. But in many places, people are overcompensating for his losses, and he's falling into the Stafford/Eli/Luck tier. If that's the case, I'll take Brady all day long. He's still going to produce elite numbers this year.

    Forte- See Garner, Charlie circa 2002. With 70-80 receptions a legit possibility, Forte could easily put up 1700-1800 total yards. The TDs may not reach more than the 6-8 range, but what I've just given you is a number 1 RB at a cost of less than Steven Jackson.

    McCoy- The Eagles will lead the league in rushing this year. McCoy and Bryce Brown will both finish as top 30 RBs this year. That statement should diminish McCoy's value, but I don't think it does. He's going to see 18-22 touches per week on average, with an average of 15-18 carries and 3-4 receptions. With that type of volume, he can easily put up 1700+ total yards, with a proven knack for the end zone that puts 12+ TDs within the realistic realm of possibilities. Bryce Brown, by the way, will see 13-15 touches per week, giving him 900-1000 yards and 6-7 TDs, with the potential for more if McCoy goes down at any point. This is my favorite handcuff tandem for this year.

    Fitz is tough. I thought he'd be a better value, but he's being drafted around Andre Johnson/Roddy White territory. That's fair, since I think he'll produce on their level. He doesn't represent a value, per se, but he is a pretty safe option at the beginning of round 3, and that early in the draft, you want safe production. All 3 are top 10 WRs with top 5 upside if everything goes their way.

    I love Dwayne Bowe. I have him in my top 12, but he's likely to be considered a borderline 2/3 WR in drafts. I love him in round 4 or 5 to produce numbers that may resemble a legit #1.

    Welker's presence will help Demaryius Thomas more than anything. He's the big winner in all of this. Decker's production will drop, although he should still be good for 8-10 TDs. Welker will be the 3rd down threat from 20 to 20. 70-75 catches seem to be the max for him, giving him no more than 800 yards, with perhaps a handful of TDs. He's a #4 WR with little upside that's being drafted as a #2. No thank you.

    Davis and Pitta were on here to represent my TE philosophy. In tribute, I call it my "Biggie" strategy, as in go big, or go home. If I'm not pouncing on Graham, I'd take Gronk if he's still there late in round 4, or early in round 5. If not, Davis is the TE with the next biggest upside, especially with Crabtree down. He finally showed some chemistry with Kaepernick in the playoffs that may or may not continue into this season. But just the chance of that happening puts him at #3 on my board.

    Pitta is someone who's growing on me, as I'm starting to think there's legit upside with him. He feels like the next coming of Jason Witten. But as with Davis, I wouldn't take him prior to round 7 or 8. And if it's not a PPR league, I'm probably passing on Pitta altogether.
    "I'd knock your brains out, then pick them up later."

    -Marion Motley

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •