I hate when I'm watching any kind of picks show and someone takes last year's winners. It's like cheating. They have a built-in excuse, "how could I not take (insert team here) after how well they played last year". Last year each conference had a 50% turnover in playoff teams, so that's our rule. You can only keep 3 playoff teams from last year. Harder than it sounds in the AFC.
As a long-time Cincinnati resident, even I can see that the Bengals are the first team off the board.
I have to keep the Chargers and Colts. Chargers are a strong team in a weak division. The Colts are, well, the Colts. 12+ wins each of the last 7 years.
Now it gets hard. I can only keep 1 of the remaining 3, Ravens, Patriots and Jets. The Ravens won 9 last year and had a great off-season. I can't imagine them not making the playoffs, but if I keep the Ravens I have to have the Dolphins (or Bills) win the East. I like the Pats and Steelers slightly more than the Ravens and Dolphins, I think.
The Jets, Ravens and Bengals are out for the wildcard by rule. I like Chris Johnson, but the Titans' defense scares me. Chad Henne scares me more.