Some hope for the 'Skins

**msclemons** · 09-05-2010, 04:36 PM

Football Outsiders has an interesting article outlining the three biggest factors in comeback or "turn around" seasons.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/train...ory?id=5512672

If you have ESPN Insider you can read the full article here.

FBO ranks three key categories as spurs for comeback seasons: Improved Health, Improvement at QB and Regression to Mean. According to FBO the Redskins fit all three categories.

Improved Health - The 'skins were one of the most injured teams last year. If they return to league averages they will grab this category.

Improvement at QB - McNabb has arrived with a sequoia sized chip on his shoulder

Regression to Mean - According to FBO most teams are .500 in games decided by a touchdown or less. Last year the 'skins were 2-7 in such games. If they move back to average that alone should pick up three wins. There is some additional data regarding point differentials that I'm too lazy to write about.

Football Outsiders is predicting a big improvement for the Redskins in 2010 to 9-7 and 2nd place in the NFC East. They're also predicting the Cowboys to be last in the NFC East. Both are reasons for hope for 'Skins fans.

**Turk Schonert** · 09-05-2010, 05:10 PM

I'd like to wager Football Outsiders a case of beer that the Cowboys don't finish last in the NFC East.

**msclemons** · 09-05-2010, 05:38 PM

Originally Posted by Turk Schonert

I'd like to wager Football Outsiders a case of beer that the Cowboys don't finish last in the NFC East.

You and me both. I love FBO but sometimes I think all their crazy stats get in the way of common sense. Still - something for "Skins fans to root for.

**msclemons** · 01-06-2011, 01:51 AM

Thanks to a slightly better division record (3-3 Cowboys vs 2-4 Redskins) Turk and I do not owe the gentlemen at FBO a case of beer. It was darn close though.

**Pruitt** · 01-06-2011, 09:53 AM

Well, good for the football outsiders for picking the Cowboys to have a bad season.

But that Redskins theory was crap.

Which means - according to my statistical analysis - they have a Stat Nerd Off-season Theorization Success (or S.N.O.T.S) rate of 50%.

Not bad.

**GoBigOrGoHome** · 01-06-2011, 01:28 PM

Originally Posted by Pruitt

Well, good for the football outsiders for picking the Cowboys to have a bad season.

But that Redskins theory was crap.

Which means - according to my statistical analysis - they have a Stat Nerd Off-season Theorization Success (or S.N.O.T.S) rate of 50%.

Not bad.

Not bad at all, dorks.