I do not know whether to be excited about Buffalo selecting Shaq Lawson
I do not give much energy to the notion of value for a pick or the virtues of consensus on a pick. If either was truly worthwhile the first round hiring tournament would do better than a 50% hit rate. I do pretty well looking at occasional highlights on youtube and reading between the lines of scouting overviews available online.
For example I spotted Kirk Cousins watching five minutes of a game his senior year. Same with Kevin Hogan this year. I also knew to stay away from Todd Collins from watching the end of a comeback attempt his senior year. I miss sometimes, but with QBs and top tens less than Kiper.
I have seen the highlights on Lawson. He reminds me a lot of Marcell Dareus without the occasional explosive quickness. I would be as upset as I was with the Dareus pick if they had taken him third (because while I think both are good I don't think they are difference-makers waiting to happen) but they didn't, did they? He went 19th, and with the rookie wage scale that is a moderate investment. I don't mind having him, so long as he isn't used in pass coverage too often. I think he is an adequate tackler, and I think he will be a good player. If Buffalo is lucky he will be as good as Phil Hansen. I don't think he will be as good a pass rusher as Aaron Schobel, but I think he will be productive. Is he going to be better than Jarius Wynn? Maybe, but not by a whole lot. Wynn is a solid pro who doesn't lose his one on one battles too often. He also doesn't make game-changing plays. Will Lawson? Occasionally. Is that worth 3M per year or whatever it is the 19th slot is guaranteed and almost guaranteed playing time? Maybe. I don't know.
Working things out here, please be patient a bit longer.
For me it comes down to the guys who were available. Among those who went earlier, I would have been happier to get Floyd, Rankins, Pothead, Stanley, and know nothing of Buckner or Conklin. I would have been as happy to get Apple or Kelly.
Of the guys they left behind there are a bunch (like, 30 at various positions) I think are equivalent to Lawson, but the ones I rate higher (and by that I mean I think they will be better at their position in the NFL) are: Kenny Clark, maaaaaybe Nkemdiche, Spence, Sheldon Day, and Braxton Miller. So, for my team I want best available UNLESS I either value a position more than another or have something in place in terms of cost, fit, and production that I expect to keep the new guy on the bench for more than a year. In Buffalo that takes Spence out of the first round, because I expect Hughes to be around three more years. Miller plays a position I value less than DL, so he moves back into the same group as Lawson. I am ambivalent enough about Nkemdiche that I will never feel badly if he turns into a Hall Of Famer (in large part because I don't think he would in Buffalo, for whom I project a slide and another three years of tumultuous mediocrity due to bad coaching and resource management.) I think Day and Clark will be more disruptive. I have Dareus who is good, Williams who is great but old and breaking down, and Corbin Bryant who is OK. I don't think Day or Clark will be as good as I thought Aaron Donald was going to be, but this is the 19th pick.
So, I would have preferred Day or Clark, but am satisfied that at least they didn't blow it. Ahem Raiders, Falcons, Bucs, and Jags.
Last edited by ScottDCP; 04-29-2016 at 11:41 AM.
Go, Flaming Thumbtacks!
I was surprised you didn't go QB. One of the few weaknesses on the Bills
Pass rush, linebacker apart from Manny Lawson, and secondary where we are injury-prone. All worse than Taylor. A QB in the first three rounds this year is a bad bet. Even if they get a guy who could one day play, I expect the current coaching staff to misuse him, and the next to dump him. Better to go with the current starter, who is not bad.
Go, Flaming Thumbtacks!