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Thread: Week Three 2016 NFL Picks

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    Week Three 2016 NFL Picks

    I was in Las Vegas last weekend and I am very upset with the New York Giants. They were the final leg on two -4 parlays where the rest of the legs covered. With $50 bets on them, I missed out on about $360 with Odell Beckham Jr's drop inside the five. When I wasn't losing frustrating bets, we discussed all things football while simultaneously watching every game. For this edition of the picks, we will play "Are we sure?" in several of them.

    Thursday, September 22, 2016
    Texans @ Pats, 8:25pm Are we sure that the Broncos are the best defense in the league? There's a chance that the Texans actually hold the title by the end of the season, especially with Ware out for Denver. The Texans have been fierce with a healthy Clowney along with great play from role players like John Simon. I think the game is very close because no team prepares back-up quarterbacks better than the Patriots. However, I think the Texans are pretty darn good. Texans

    Sunday, September 25, 2016
    Cardinals @ Bills, 1:00pm So, the Cardinals are still good and a Rex Ryan team is still a mess. Glad to know some things still make sense in this crazy league. Cardinals

    Raiders @ Titans, 1:00pm Are we sure that Mike Mularkey doesn't have the same info on his superiors that Jeff Fisher does? The Titans look like they have a ton of talent and little from the coaching box. How, exactly, did Mularkey earn a second shot at head coach? I dunno, but the Raiders defense has been a disappointing unit and they may need just a bit more experience before being really feared. Raiders

    Browns @ Dolphins, 1:00pm Before McCown was shot up with Toradol, there was a brief five minutes where it looked like Kessler was going to have to play last Sunday. If you slow the tape, you can see the moment when Kessler soiled himself. It was at that moment that Hue begged McCown to finish the game. He somehow did and the Browns still lost due to 25 straight points, a safety that allowed a -4.5 cover some buddies of mine enjoyed and a completely stupid taunting call that wasn't taunting at all. Cody Kessler's scouting report looks a lot like Charlie Frye's did. Dolphins

    Ravens @ Jaguars, 1:00pm This is my call-out to Cris to show some love over here to get me the first quarter stats for Blake Bortles in his career. He has to be the worst prepared quarterback in the league. He is the king of the back door cover and taking advantage of softer defenses when his team is down by 14+. I am not convinced that South jacksonville High has the right guy. The Ravens aren't good, either, but they can play some defense. Plus, the Jags suffer from my rule of a team being bad at what the coach is supposed to good at. Ravens

    Lions @ Packers, 1:00pm Are we sure that....100% sure that... Aaron Rodgers is still a top 3 quarterback? Look, hear me out a bit. There's no doubt that the personnel have had a big part in his problems, but he is making worse decisions than he ever did. Sometimes, it is happy feet. Sometimes, he still trying to make a play for too long. I dunno. It's an eye test thing. He's great. I'd trade three 1sts for him. He just may not be Ultra-Elite anymore. I mean, he never used to throw a pick like he did in the 4th quarter Sunday night. Packers

    Broncos @ Bengals, 1:00pm Where is the Bengals running game? They still had a chance to beat the Steelers, too. The Broncos are not Pittsburgh, but are very good. It turns out that Siemien may learn how to protect the ball enough to make him a better quarterback for this team than Peyton Manning was last year. Remember, this is a guy who once split time at Northwestern. With Kain Colter. Bengals

    Vikings @ Panthers, 1:00pm Don't worry, we're still sure that Sam Bradford is the same guy we thought he was. That was an impressive job by the coaches to get him ready to play and he was impressive himself. However, one game does not make a trend. AD's middling rushing performances are becoming a trend and he is hurt for a while. This will be a brutal game in the trenches, though. Panthers

    Redskins @ Giants, 1:00pm The soon-to-be story that will be everywhere: How smart Washington management was to make Cousins prove it for another season. On Sunday, my friends and I played a game where we started to count the amount of horrid throws by Cousins. Remember that we were watching every single game at a Las Vegas Tilted Kilt. We did not start the count until 7 minutes in and gave up late in the third quarter. Our number was 8 and two of them were great catches by Jordan Reed. He missed a TD on an underthrow deep and cost yards with other throws we couldn't quite call "horrid." It was as bad as you have been told. As much as the Giants hurt me on offense, their defense is playing as if it is a really good unit.Giants

    Rams @ Bucs, 4:05pm The Bucs are a better version of the Raiders. Just talented enough to drop some real stinkers. Plus, it was kind of unfair to be playing a team that just got called out by the greatest man in the league; Bruce Arians. The Rams still stink like their old stadium. Bucs

    Niners @ Seahawks, 4:05pm Are we sure the Seahawks are still good? They scored their only offensive touchdown of the season so far on a missed offensive PI call that allowed them to pull a win out of their butts against Ryan Tannehill. At home. They can't run. The line is finally having an effect on Wilson's decisions. I am well aware of the other slow starts they have had. Let's just say my eyebrow is raised a little higher this season. It's that, or I'm starting to get the white puffy old man 'brows that look like they are eating my eyelids. Seahawks

    Jets @ Chiefs, 4:25pm Are we sure the Chiefs are a playoff team? At one point on Sunday, after a 20+ yard completion, Alex Smith was 12/23 for 96 yards. Those are some prime Blaine Gabbert numbers. Chiefs

    Chargers @ Colts, 4:25pm Which team should be more angry with the management team? At least San Diego gets to keep the weather when they move; the Colts would just go back to the Gary Tredeau Era. How do both Pagano and Grigson have jobs when it has been reported how much they disagree for almost two years now? Is that the best way to run a company based on one commodity (athletes)? Chargers

    Steelers @ Eagles, 4:25pm It's a bit too early for the Carson Wentz Bandwagon to start retrofitting gold toilets, but it is obvious that the kid has passed the eye test on some tough throws and also has fit into the offense well. Doug Pederson's coaching is being underrated while the prospect himself is getting overrated. Also, when talking about how badly the Browns screwed up...... it's just too early to say that. I thought the Browns should have taken Wentz, but I got it when their strategy became volume drafting. The Browns need talent in many areas. In 2017, they will have around 35-38 of their 53 have three years or less service time in the NFL. There is a high probability of success there because it should net them 7-8 starters. Their chance of success there may be higher than if they had taken Wentz. The former NDSU quarterback would have had a similar OL in Cleveland, but he would be throwing to Barnidge, Hawkins (maybe) and Pryor instead of Aglohor, Ertz and Matthews. It's an upgrade. Steelers

    Bears @ Cowboys, 8:30pm Are we sure that the Bears aren't the front-runner for the number one pick? A thin team has lost five defensive starters in two weeks. Cutler is going to play all he can on his hurt thumb, but the truth is that it will only lead to more turnovers. He fumbles a lot because he keeps the ball in one hand and rarely covers it up. Part of that is because he still chucks it deep for yardage under pressure (see the early throw to Jeffrey on Monday-- he got nailed on that play, which is why it was underthrown enough to prevent a touchdown). Call it negative positive reinforcement. The Bears new front office hasn't impressed anyone with their picks, continuing the NFL death spiral of drafting poorly for 6+ years. Floyd should bulk up and be played like Jamie Collins. Instead, he is rushing like Aldon Smith and getting swallowed up on running plays. They still need defensive help and could have had Trae Waynes and Corey Coleman. The future looks bleak in Chicago. Plus, it's likely that Lamarr Houston's career is essentially over. Cowboys

    Monday, September 26, 2016
    Falcons @ Saints, 8:30pm Are we sure that I stopped writing? Saints

    LAST WEEK: 10-6
    SEASON: 21-11
    Last edited by Rich Gapinski; 09-22-2016 at 05:43 AM.
    As a writer, I'm like the last girl at the bar. In the morning, you may regret asking for my services, but I'll get the job done. As long as I don't puke on your floor.

    Twitter: @PolishedSports

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    [/QUOTE][/QUOTE]
    the Colts would just go back to the Gary Tredeau Era. How do both Pagano and Grigson have jobs when it has been reported how much they disagree for almost two years now. Is that the best way to run a company based on one commodity (athletes)? Chargers
    You mean like when B.D. played QB and Zonker was his wide receiver? Yeah, those were the days. A_Doonesbury_Special_Footbal_Huddle_Zonker_1977-500x353.jpg

    The Colts are a mess. They have no players, and the ones they do have are injured. I think both Grigson and Pagano are gone sooner rather than later if things don't get better quickly. There's no indication that things will get better quickly. What ever happened to that Arians dude?

    Vikings @ Panthers, 1:00pm Don't worry, we're still sure that Sam Bradford is the same guy we thought he was. That was an impressive job by the coaches to get him ready to play and he was impressive himself. However, one game does not make a trend. AD's middling rushing performances are becoming a trend and he is hurt for a while. This will be a brutal game in the trenches, though. Panthers
    I'm sure Bradford has fond memories of the Panthers and Mike Mitchell. JStew is out again, but I still feel like the Panthers will win. I don't know how things will be uptown on Sunday. It's a mess up in here now, y'all...a terrible, violent, sad, un-Charlotte-like mess...but our football team can still play a little.

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    Texans at Patriots? Ordinarily I would go with the Patriots every time. The QB situation of course makes me have to think about it. I have mentioned this before in other ways and other places, but I think the one and only thing the Patriots routinely do that always always gives them an advantage is that when they have one yard to go they line up and snap the ball quickly and by virtue of a QB sneak or a RB dive they get a first down more than 90% of the time. Their defrnse rarely gets exhausted. That is not likely to change. Texans win by three, though.

    Cards at Bills. The one thing Arizona is not awesome at is the one thing the Bills might be able to do. Buffalo could generate a pass rush and Arizona is not a good pass bloc king team. My faith in Buffalo's coaching staff has sunk to normalized lows, however. Did you hear they chose not to blitz Fitz because they were afra he would get the ball out too quickly? Cards by twenty.

    Raiders at Flaming Thumbtacks. In 2014 when Buffalo traded up to the fourth spot I thought it would be for Kahlil Mack because I didn't think they had the sense to take Aaron Donald. Oops. My bad. I have written before that you do not trade up to the top of the first round for anything but a QB or pass rusher extraordinaire. You can see where I went wrong, right? Long way of saying Tennessee cannot handle Mack. Raiders by 13.

    Browns at Dolphins. Two teams Buffalo could maybe beat. I think the will split with the Dolphins. With McCown, Browns win by 6. With Kessler, who shares a name with my daughter's first preschool teacher? Dolphins by 17.

    Ravens at Jags. After the first game I was heartened by Buffalo barely losing to the Ravens because I thought Baltimore would be a decent team. Then I saw how badly Buffalo played against the Jets and my opinion really didn't change because I think the Jets are better than the Poes. Yes, this is a thing where I try to tie every game into how frustrated I am about the Bills being ****ty again. I really think these teams are about equal. Ravens experience in winning tight games at crucial possessions is matched by ho!e field advantage. I go with talent. Jags by 1.

    Lions at Packers? Remember when Buffalo hired the guy responsible for turning Matthew Stafford into the QB he was before Jim Bob Coochie? That dude with the silly name has turned Detroit into a possible team, three touchdown killing penalties notwithstanding. Green Bay's offensive line is a mess. Packers by 3.

    Broncos at Bengal. I give Marvin Lewis occasional grief for not being a good enough coach to win the Super Bowl because the Bengals find ways to lose big games through lack of physical, mental, and emotions discipline. Buffalo can't get into big games with tickets. Lewis is better than anyone Buffalo has had since Wade. Bengals by 7.

    Vikings at Pnathers. Mike Zimmer didn't even get an interview with Buffalo. Carolina didn't become a good team until Ron Rivera grew a pair. I have been surprised by how good the Minnesota defense is. Not gonna be good enough, but still. Panthers by 10.

    Redskins at Giants. A month ago I would have said Washington, but they appear to have taken a page from the Russ Brandon handbook on how to handle a young team. I don't know exactly why, but this team is falling apart as fast as Buffalo. Oh wait, they have spent stupid money in free agency, drafted questionably, and have a QB in his second year as a starter developing the habit of thinkong too much. The Giants? Getting better. Giants by ten.

    Rams at Bucs. A week ago I thought the Rams were one of two teams legitimately worse than Buffalo. Oops. Jeff Fisher teams always do seem to beat a couple they shouldn't on their way to 8&8. Something Ryan can spire to on his way to 1-15. Bugs? Talented young team, coached well. I may have been wrong about their QB. Buds by ten.

    Miners at Seahawks. Isnt SF 1-1? Why are people questioning the QB situation? And Seattle? I mean obviously they lost last week because they didn't bring back Fred Jackson. See what has happened to Buffalo? Miners by 1.

    Jets at Chiefs. I though the Chiefs would be a skosh better than the Jets because of their superior secondary. I may have been wrong. Andy Reid's failings as a coach are not greater than his qualifications, unlike Rex Ryan (thin, I know,) but the crash is happening faster than expected. Jets by 3.

    Chargers at Colts. I thought the Chargers were gonna be ****ty and the Colts above average. I had forgotten that the Colts administration iis probably a worse gumbo than Buffalo's. Also that even if their offensive line I vastly improved, which it isn't, their defense is still untalented. San Diego is losing important guys and appearing o get better. Maybe they should play with ten. Chargers by 3.

    Steelts at Eagles. I want to say the Eagles have a chance, but this game is gonna be boring by 30. I remember when Buffalo was thrilled to hire Doug Whaley away from Pittsburgh with a promotion. Maybe Pittsburgh knew what it was losing.

    Bears at Cowboys. Probably the preseason prediction I was most wrong about is Chicago. They suck most everywhere, are misusing the kid I thought would become fantastic, and are in the fight for Number 1 already. With Buffalo and Cleveland. Cowboys, for all that I would never want a Jones running my show, have done better under Stephen than the Bills under Brandon. Cowboys by 14.

    Falcons at Saints. Man the Bills shouldn't be this gitty. Saints by three.
    Go, Flaming Thumbtacks!

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    Got 11 wrong so far. (When I said the Eagles/Steelers game would be a 30 point game I meant that I thought the Steelers would win.) Oh well.

    A couple thoughts: Lorenzo Alexander, who Buffalo doesn't want playing defense, is the current defensive co-MVP, with Kyle Williams.

    See what happens when you snap the ball quickly, Buffalo?

    Last one on Buffalo: Cards make a 60 yard field goal in 4th quarter. Guess what Buffalo did? Rushed n9body. Only had 2 guys on the line and they were lined up at end. Coaching scared, Danny Coleman? Guaranteed lowest trajectory, send at least one tall guy over a guard, please.

    Cleveland looks feisty and competitive when they get even average QB play. Interesting.
    Last edited by ScottDCP; 09-26-2016 at 09:21 AM.
    Go, Flaming Thumbtacks!

  5. #5
    I am 7-8 so far. Just a brutal week.

    I peeked at next week's schedule, too, and I have no idea what I will pick in several games.
    As a writer, I'm like the last girl at the bar. In the morning, you may regret asking for my services, but I'll get the job done. As long as I don't puke on your floor.

    Twitter: @PolishedSports

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    De'Angelo Hall and Manti T'eo both tore ACLs yesterday and are out for the season. In addition, Shane Vereen was put on IR with a triceps injury.
    "False Start everyone but the center." Gene Steretore. Pats vs Jets. 12/24/16.

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    J.J. Watt has been placed on IR (designated to return) by the Texans. The earliest he can be back is November 27th, but Texans sources think he's done for the year. He had herniated disc surgery in late July and it seems he needs more time to heal from it before he can be effective in football.
    "False Start everyone but the center." Gene Steretore. Pats vs Jets. 12/24/16.

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