The Playoff Picture

**Amy** · 12-16-2016, 02:28 PM

With three weeks left, here is where we stand:

AFC:

Who is in: No one.

Who can get in:

New England: The Pats are in with a win or a Miami loss to the Jets on Saturday. They get a first round bye with a win, or a loss by both Miami and Pittsburgh, or a loss by Miami and a win by KC.

Kansas City: The Chiefs get in with a win. They also get in if they tie and either Miami or Denver loses. If KC loses, they get in if Denver and either of Baltimore or Pittsburgh loses.

Oakland: The Raiders get in with a win. They also get in if they tie and Miami or Denver loses. They get in with a loss in any of four ways:
1. Miami, Pittsburgh, and Denver all lose;
2. Miami, Baltimore, and Denver all lose;
3. Miami and Pittsburgh lose, and KC wins;
4. Miami and Baltimore lose, and KC wins.

The moral of this week is that a lot of teams want the Jets to win tommorow.

NFC:

Who is in: Dallas, Seattle.

Dallas gets a first round by and wins the NFC East if they win and the Giants lose.

Who can get in:

Detroit: The Lions get in if they win and the Packers lose or if they tie and both the Packers and Vikings lose.

New York: The Giants get in with a win and losses by Washington, Green Bay, and Minnesota.

**Nancy** · 12-18-2016, 10:07 AM

Let's just stop the season right here, have the playoffs and get it all over with. I need a break from the weekly crushing disappointment.

**Amy** · 12-18-2016, 04:09 PM

Andy Reid does it again. With the Titans needing a 53 yard FG to win, he tries to ice the kicker with the TO right at the snap. The kick misses, but the time out was called and the Titans make the second kick and steal the win.

At some point, Coaches need to stop doing that. It never seems to work.

**hobbes27** · 12-19-2016, 02:14 AM

Originally Posted by Amy

Andy Reid does it again. With the Titans needing a 53 yard FG to win, he tries to ice the kicker with the TO right at the snap. The kick misses, but the time out was called and the Titans make the second kick and steal the win.

At some point, Coaches need to stop doing that. It never seems to work.

It depends on the mentality of the kicker. If the kicker has a clear head, its actual an advantage for the opposing team to call a timeout, because its a practice kick. But sometimes you can get in a kickers' head. Personally I wouldn't do it, but I can understand why coaches do it.

**Amy** · 12-20-2016, 10:08 PM

Updating for the results of this past weekend.

AFC:

Who is in: New England, Oakland.

Who has things to play for:

New England: The Pats are in and have a first round bye. With a win, and an Oakland loss, the Pats are the AFC #1 seed.

Oakland: The Raiders are currently the 2 seed but have plenty to play for, too. If they win and KC loses, the Raiders win the AFC West and lock down the second bye.

Pittsburgh: If the Steelers beat the Ravens on Christmas, they win the AFC North and are in.

Kansas City: If the Chiefs win, or if the Ravens lose, KC is in.

Houston: If the Texans win and the Titans lose, Houston takes the AFC South and is in.

Miami: The Dolphins get in if they win and Denver loses.

This weekend could fill out the whole AFC bracket.

NFC

Who is in: Dallas, Seattle.

Who has things to play for:

Dallas: Dallas takes the NFC #1 seed with a win or a loss by the Giants.

Seattle: The Seahawks get a first round bye if they win and both of Detroit and Atlanta lose.

New York: The Giants get in if they win or if any one of the Lions, Packers, Bucs, or Falcons lose.

Detroit: The Lions win the NFC North if they win and Green Bay loses. The Lions get into the playoffs if they win and Tampa loses *or* if Washington and Tampa both lose and the Falcons win.

Atlanta: The Falcons take the NFC South if they win and Tampa loses. Atlanta gets into the playoffs if they win and either the Lions or Packers lose, or if both the Redskins or Packers lose (note: I have not been noting loss or tie, since tie's are rare, but both of these ways are worth noting for novelty), or if both the Falcons and Lions tie or if the Lions and Redskins lose and the Packers tie.

(Amy note: I'd love to see the Lions and Falcons both tie, to get Atlanta in that way, and see the reactions from the talking heads)

Green Bay: The Packers get in if they win and Washington and Tampa lose and Atlanta wins and Green Bay wins by enough to win the Strength of Victory tiebreaker over Tampa.

Tampa Bay: The Bucs get in with a win and losses by all of the Packers, Lions, and Redskins.

**Amy** · 12-24-2016, 08:41 PM

Ouch.

Both Marcus Mariota and Derek Carr had a leg broken today. Mariota might not matter to this years playoffs, but Carr's injury definately will. Here's to hoping both fully recover.

**Amy** · 12-26-2016, 07:09 AM

We now know the entire AFC Field and half the seedings.

#1: New England: The Pats still are the 1. With a Pats win or an Oakland loss, the Pats lock it down.
#2: Oakland: The Raiders are the 2. If the Pats lose and the Raiders win, they become the 1. If the Raiders lose and KC wins, then KC is the 2.
#3: Pittsburgh: The Steelers are locked in at the 3 seed. They will host Miami Wildcard Weekend.
#4 Houston: The Texans are the 4. They will host whichever of KC or Oakland ends up at the 5.
#5 Kansas City: As noted above, KC will stay the 5 unless they win and Oakland loses.
#6 Miami: The Dolphins are locked in at the 6 and have a date with the Steelers in two weeks.

To me, the most interesting aspect of the weekend is Pats/Dolphins. Coming into the weekend, the feeling was the Pats would have seeding to play for and Miami would be playing for it's playoff life. Now, the Pats have something to play for and the Dolphins do not.

The Pats seem very focused on the 1 seed. This was shown Saturday when Brady was pulled late in the 3rd quarter. Brady never comes out, and the fact that he was shows that seeding is more important to them this year than last year.

Miami, however, is in a situation where win or lose they go to Pittsburgh and if they win, they likely go to Foxboro. How much should Gase show Belichick about how he might play that playoff game. If it were me, I would make it a preseason game - give my starters a drive, maybe 2, then pull them. Not only does thay deny the Pats data for the potential Divisional round game, it keeps key players healthy for the wildcard game.

**Rich Gapinski** · 12-26-2016, 08:08 AM

If I'm New England, I see the names Matt McGloin, Matt Moore and Tom Macho Man Savage and think I am only scared of the Chiefs.

**Brian Williams** · 12-26-2016, 08:51 PM

Originally Posted by Rich Gapinski

If I'm New England, I see the names Matt McGloin, Matt Moore and Tom Macho Man Savage and think I am only scared of the Chiefs.

Considering how Pittsburgh destroyed KC earlier this year, especially assuming the Chiefs end up as the 5, I think this is shaping up more as a likely Brady-Ben showdown. With no Gronk and a healthy Ben, I still think they're the biggest threat to NE.