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Thread: Article: FP 2016 Upset Special Challenge: The Essence of this Contest or Your Divisional Playoff Round Open Thread

  1. #11
       
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brian Williams View Post
    Houston
    Historically speaking, there will be at least one upset this weekend, and at least one of the teams that played last weekend will be going to the Super Bowl. Since the playoffs expanded to include 6 teams (and 2 WC games) per conference in 1990, the home teams have swept the WC round 3 different times. On all 3 occasions (2000, 2006, 2011) a team that played that weekend went on to win the Super Bowl.

    Predictably, all 3 of those teams-- 2000 Ravens (+6), 2006 Colts (+4), 2011 Giants (+8)-- were underdogs in the Divisional round.

    All of that may mean nothing when it comes to the particular vat of games related to this thread, especially since one of our options is off the board, considered by Vegas to be a veritable toss-up. But something is going down this weekend.

    The Texans have the league's top defense when it comes to yards allowed. The Patriots have allowed the fewest points. The last time the top yardage defense met the top scoring defense in the playoffs was in the Divisional round in 2000. The Ravens won that game on the road over the defending AFC Champ Titans, and went on to win the Super Bowl.

    Is Trent Dilfer vs. Peak-Steve McNair at his apex really that much less of a QB mismatch than Brock Osweiler vs. Tom Br... yes... yes it is.

    And while never doesn't necessarily mean won't, we've still yet to see an NFL team play in the same Super Bowl it's hosting. So I probably need to find another angle...

    ROOKIE QBs

    During the Super Bowl era, 20 rookie QBs have started a playoff game. 9 have won at least one game, and 2 (Joe Flacco and Mark Sanchez) have won multiple games. Russell Wilson is the last rookie QB to win a playoff game, but that came in 2012 against fellow rookie Robert Griffin III. In 2011 T.J. Yates also pulled off the feat against a fellow rookie in Andy Dalton. As for the others...

    2009- Mark Sanchez over Carson Palmer
    2008- Joe Flacco over Chad Pennington
    2004- Ben Roethlisberger over Chad Pennington
    2000- Aaron Brooks over Kurt Warner
    1999- Shaun King over Brad Johnson
    1985- Dieter Brock over Danny White
    1976- Pat Haden over Roger Staubach

    That's an interesting list that Chad Pennington will never want to stumble across. 4 teams (Cincinnati, Washington, NY Jets, Dallas) appear on the losing end of this list twice. We have one current (Staubach) and one future (Warner) HOFer represented, and each bookended their spot on this list with Super Bowl appearances.

    6 rookie QBs (Flacco, Sanchez, Big Ben, King, Brock, Haden) have gone to the Conference Championship game.

    ZERO have made the Super Bowl.

    Dak Prescott joins Ben Roethlisberger as the only rookies to lead their team to a #1 seed. Big Ben won his first game against Chad Pennington. Dak Prescott has to face a scorching hot Aaron Rodgers.

    Prescott over Rodgers would not be entirely unprecedented, but it would be close.


    Since something will happen this weekend, and I need to make a move if I want to win this thing, I'm sticking with the Texans. For now.
    "I will never give a motivational speech to my players. If I have to motivate you, I will fire you."

    -Chuck Noll

  2. Welp. I have a choice to make.
    • I can go with the Pack and maintain pace with Raven.
    • I can go with No Upsets which would net me 25.5 points and and launch me back into the lead in both wins and points.
    • I can go with the Texans which would land me 16 points. If the Pack wins, also, Raven would still hold the lead by virtue of a 5-point lead and a tie in the win column. If they lose and Houston wins, I could hold the lead with 10 wins but still be behind by half a point. This would leave me vulnerable to another takeover.


    Hrmmmmm....

    You can go big or you can go home.

    No Upsets for the whole enchilada.
    Last edited by Patrick Sullivan; 01-14-2017 at 02:07 PM.

  3. #13
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    Great opening drive for Seattle. They use the first 8 and a half minutes of the first quarter and Graham gets a TD pass. 7-0 Seattle.

  4. Wow. Looks like the 'Hawks are locked in on offense.

    Not good for those of us who went No Upsets this week...
    Workin' on mysteries without any clues

  5. #15
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    Atlanta uses the rest of the quarter. The first quarter flew by.

    Atlanta ties the game with a TD to Julio with 14:14 left in the half.

    Here's an idea. Don't put the closest man to Julio 10 yards deep on 1st and goal from the 8.

  6. #16
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    Seattle strikes fast after a long kickoff return. A five play drive gets them deep into Falcon territory. They stall, however, and settle for a FG.

    10-7 Seattle, 11:20 left in the half.

  7. 1) Wilson has a very underrated arm.
    2) Maybe Seattle has finally figured out how to use Graham.
    3) I am very surprised we are not discussing a coaching change in Indy. I find it hard to believe a guy like Gruden could pass up a chance to coach Andrew Luck.
    4) Holy ****, Devin Hester.
    Last edited by Patrick Sullivan; 01-14-2017 at 06:26 PM.
    Workin' on mysteries without any clues

  8. #18
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    Devin Hester is looking great. Maybe, just maybe, the Ravens were tooo fast to cut him after the Pats game.

  9. #19
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    re: Gruden,

    I don't think Chucky wants to coach anymore. I think he's happy in the booth.

  10. #20
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    Wilson falls down on the snap in the endzone. The center stepped on his foot. Safety.

    10-9 Seattle. 9:22 left in the half.

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