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Thread: Most accurate NFL QBs by throw type in 2017

  1. #1

    Most accurate NFL QBs by throw type in 2017

    Why Andy Dalton is among the NFL’s best at vertical lead passes


    Pro Football Focus gives Dalton high grades on a few specific throws.

    By Jeremy Chisenhall@JSChisenhall Updated May 31, 2018, 3:36pm EDT

    David Kohl-USA TODAY Sports

    Andy Dalton’s 2017 wasn’t exactly anything to write home about. He finished the year ranked 17th in passing yards (3,320), 10th in passing touchdowns (25) and 18th in passer rating (86.6).

    Despite an average year, Pro Football Focus sees some areas in which Dalton is among the league’s best when it comes to accuracy on specific
    throw types.

    PFF’s new accuracy charting is used to grade how accurate a quarterback is when it comes to throwing a pass that is well positioned for his wide
    receiver. In that grading, Dalton was seen as the most accurate quarterback in the league on vertical lead passes, meaning on passes in which he
    was leading his receiver farther down the field.

    PFF gave Dalton an accuracy rating of 57.1 percent, and an accuracy-plus rating of 36.7 percent, both of which were tops in the NFL. He placed
    ahead of Eli Manning, Cam Newton, Matt Ryanand Carson Wentz, who rounded out the top five in accuracy. He also placed ahead of Wentz, Drew
    , Jared Goff and Carson Palmer in accuracy-plus. PFF’s Steve Palazzolo called Dalton “one of the best seam throwers in the NFL” when talking
    about the rankings.

    Dalton also placed in the top five in PFF’s accuracy rating for stick passes. Dalton had an accuracy percentage of 74.5 on stick throws, which put him
    in fifth place. Ahead of him were Jimmy Garoppolo, Wentz, Blaine Gabbert and Ryan.

    Dalton’s success in these throw types might explain why he throws to outside receivers heavily. Another PFF post that looks at who each quarterback
    targets shows that Dalton throws to outside receivers more frequently than most NFL QBs.

    The charting has him fourth in the league pass targets to outside receivers (percentage-wise). The Bengals QB has attempted 3,280 passes in his
    seven years, with 1,398 of them being to outside receivers, making up 42.6 percent of his passes. That puts Dalton fourth in the NFL in outside pass
    attempts, behind Ben Roethlisberger, Eli Manning and Jameis Winston. Rounding out the top five behind Dalton is Ryan.

    Another easy reason to point to for Dalton throwing outside is that he’s had A.J. Green on the outside to pass to his whole career.

    Dalton’s ability to throw to the outside and to throw deep lead passes is something Cincinnati should take advantage of this season. Not just by
    continuing to make Green the top target, but also by getting John Ross involved with his speed down the field, now that he’s healthy.

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    be sure to read the overview of our process, and it’s always nice to have this image handy when going through the data.

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    However, we haven’t heard much about Andy Dalton during this whole time. Peter Schrager of Good Morning Football recently said that Dalton is being “slept on.”
    Slept on, meaning a guy we aren’t talking about... Andy Dalton hasn’t won crap in the NFL, but Andy Dalton is being slept on going into the season. I thought last year was a tough tough road for Dalton. They spent a top ten pick on John Ross and he doesn’t catch a single ball. They deplete their offensive line... Then they fire his offensive coordinator two weeks into the season, and what does he do to finish the year? They beat the Lions. They beat the Ravens. They knock both those teams out of the playoffs. They end on a good note. Dalton, for all his flaws for all his prime time inabilities whatever you want to say, has been to the playoffs five of the seven years in the NFL.

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    Myself, I'm really happy when people sleep on Andy Dalton. because nothing positive happens when people write positive things about Andy Dalton. All you do is stir up the portion of the Bengals fan base that still hasn't gotten over woefully overrated Carson Palmer quitting/leaving. I say good riddance. Carson Palmer got his wish and still couldn't win anything with multiple franchises, and when he retired the sporting world collectively shrugged.

    Frankly, who cares if Andy Dalton is one of those QBs who need a great team around him to win? A player exactly like that was just named Super Bowl MVP. The difference is Philadelphia built a great team with few weaknesses. Bengals haven't come close to matching that. They can't run the ball or stop the run. They can't keep their own TE healthy and they can't stop the opponents TE. They're almost as inept defensively as they are offensively. The list of team failures that have nothing to do with Andy Dalton goes on and on and on.

    That Andy Dalton isn't good enough to overcome those built in weaknesses is besides the point because Carson Palmer wasn't either. And the same has been proven true for Eli Manning and a host of other so-called elite QB's, including some with championship rings on their fingers.

    It's 2018 and absolutely nobody is debating whether Andy Dalton is a great quarterback. As a rule you don't find great quarterbacks on bad teams. But why are we still debating whether he can be a good quarterback if given a better team to work with?

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    Andy Dalton among least gamescript-dependent quarterbacks in NFL


    A closer look shows that Dalton’s productions stays consistent, regardless of the score.

    By Nick Manchester@NickManchester9 Jun 4, 2018, 1:30pm EDT

    David Kohl-USA TODAY Sports

    How does a gamescript effect a quarterback’s production? Does a quarterback play differently when his team is ahead, as opposed to when his team
    is trailing?

    Pro Football Focus’ Scott Barrett set out to answer this question
    . He took a look at each quarterback’s number of snaps when ahead and when
    trailing, then compared it to their fantasy PPR values.

    The most common trend was for a quarterback to have better production when his team was trailing than when his team was leading. This makes
    sense, because since when a team needs to score points, they will try to pass more to put up points more quickly. When the team is already ahead,
    coaches like to run the ball to milk the clock and reduce the chance that they will give the ball away.

    Of all 31 quarterbacks Barrett measured, 25 of them passed less often when leading, quantified with a negative leading differential. Twenty-six of the quarterbacks passed more when trailing, netting a positive trailing differential.

    For example, Alex Smith, who is the most extreme example of this trend, lost 11 percent of his production while leading, giving him a leading
    differential of -11 percent. His production increased by 14 percent while trailing, giving him a trailing differential of +14 percent.

    There were only three quarterbacks that had neither a negative leading differential nor a positive trailing differential: Case Keenum, Dak Prescott and
    Andy Dalton.

    Dalton’s leading differential was zero and his trailing differential was -2 percent. In other words, his production was mostly the same regardless of
    whether the Bengals were ahead or trailing.

    While most “game manager” quarterbacks will predictably alter their production based on the gamescript, Dalton doesn’t fit into that category.
    However, this may have been because the run game was so abysmal in 2017. The Bengals couldn’t count on the running backs to run down the
    clock like most other teams, so they called on Dalton more during both leading and trailing situations.

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    Rank: 26

    Andy Dalton, Bengals

    Age: 30 | Career passer rating: 88.7
    Dalton, like 2011 draft classmate Cam Newton, has regressed to his own mean after an exceptional fifth season. Bad offensive line play and inconsistency at receiver behind A.J. Green have contributed, but there has been a lowered floor to go with Dalton’s limited ceiling as a dependent passer.

  7. #7

    Andy Dalton


    An influx of young talent at the position and the departure of prized Bengals offensive coordinators have helped to push Dalton down the franchise quarterback list. He might be the best current example of a solid starter whose fortunes rise and fall based on his surroundings.

    2017 stats: 16 games | 59.9 pct | 3,320 pass yds | 6.7 ypa | 25 pass TD | 12 INT


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