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Thread: The final 2019 compensatory pick projection has been released.

  1. #1

    The final 2019 compensatory pick projection has been released.

    Projecting The 2019 Compensatory Picks Posted on January 7, 2019 by Nick

    This article refers specifically to OTC’s projection for the 2018 NFL Draft’s compensatory picks. For details on the basics and methodology of projecting compensatory picks in general, please reference this article.

    To understand how this projection is generated for each team, please reference the compensatory picks cancellation charts here.
    The Projection
    Team Round Compensated Free Agent APY
    WAS 3 Kirk Cousins $28,000,000
    NE 3 Nate Solder $15,400,000
    LAR 3 Trumaine Johnson $14,500,000
    CAR 3 Andrew Norwell $13,300,000
    LAR 3 Sammy Watkins $15,830,000
    NE 3 Malcolm Butler $12,170,000
    BAL 3 Ryan Jensen $10,500,000
    IND 4 Donte Moncrief $9,600,000
    DAL 4 Anthony Hitchens $8,838,000
    NYG 4 Justin Pugh $9,005,000
    ATL 4 Dontari Poe $8,533,333
    PHI 4 Trey Burton $7,925,000
    WAS 5 Trent Murphy $7,400,000
    ATL 5 Taylor Gabriel $6,500,000
    NYG 5 Devon Kennard $5,650,000
    NE 5 Danny Amendola $5,950,000
    WAS 6 Ryan Grant $5,000,000
    ARI 6 Kareem Martin $4,900,000
    PHI 6 Beau Allen $5,000,000
    MIN 6 Teddy Bridgewater $5,500,000
    PHI 6 Patrick Robinson $4,925,000
    CIN 6 Andre Smith $4,000,000
    SF 6 Aaron Lynch $3,950,000
    CIN 6 Chris Smith $3,900,000
    KC 6 Bennie Logan $4,000,000
    CIN 6 AJ McCarron $3,950,000
    MIN 7 Tramaine Brock $3,000,000
    ARI 7 Drew Stanton $3,056,250
    ARI 7 Jaron Brown $2,750,000
    NE 7 Cameron Fleming $2,500,000
    LAR 7 Cody Davis $2,500,000
    MIN 7 Shamar Stephen $2,100,000

    Compensation over 32-pick limit; not awarded
    WAS 7 Niles Paul $2,218,750
    ARI 7 Blaine Gabbert $2,000,000
    CIN 7 Jeremy Hill $1,331,250
    LAR 7 Derek Carrier $1,275,000
    IND 7 Frank Gore $1,105,000
    SF 7 Leon Hall $1,060,000
    SF 7 Logan Paulsen $1,005,000

    Note that although there are 39 eligible compensatory picks listed in this projection, each year only exactly 32 picks are awarded. Therefore, the picks that rank 33rd and lower are not awarded, although the official release will typically acknowledge their presence, as this list does with strikethrough text.

    Compensatory picks became tradeable beginning with the 2017 NFL Draft. This year, there has been one such trade thus far, with the Rams slated to send the higher of their two projected 3rd round comp pick to the Jaguars in exchange for Dante Fowler.

    I expect the official release to come out on February 22, the Friday before the 2019 NFL Scouting Combine. Releasing the list then is sensible, as it allows executives at the Combine to discuss possible trades with full knowledge of their draft capital.

    Cutoff Projections

    It was suggested via the resolution allowing comp picks to be traded on December 2, 2015 that the cutoffs between each rounds and whether or not a player had an APY high enough to qualify was determined by a “rank[ing] against all players in the League who are on rosters at the end of the season”. I have conjectured from this evidence that the cutoffs are based on a percentile system. After refining the OTC’s program following the official release of the 2017 compensatory picks, it’s my guess that the percentiles operate on even percentages divisible by five, as illustrated in the table below.

    At the end of the 2018 regular season, OTC’s database identified a total of 1924 players that were either on the active roster or reserve lists, and had also played in at least 10 games during the 2018 regular season. As explained in the general methodology in the previous link, the cutoffs for each round and for qualifying as a compensatory free agent (CFA) have been established by this projection on certain percentile ranks of all players on the active roster and reserve lists at the end of the regular season, sorted by APY adjusted for snap counts in descending order and also represented by the player at the cutoff point. For 2018, these cutoffs are as follows:

    Round Percentile Overall Rank Representative Player
    3rd/4th 95th (top 5%) 96 Luke Kuechly
    4th/5th 90th (top 10%) 192 Aaron Colvin
    5th/6th 85th (top 15%) 289 Golden Tate
    6th/7th 75th (top 25%) 481 Leighton Vander Esch
    7th/Qualify 50th (top 50%) 962 Ryan Hewitt
    Players On The Cutoff Bubbles

    While it is my hope that my projection of where the cutoffs lie is correct, there is enough of a margin of error that the players that are very close to them may fall on the opposite side of where I have them projected. In most cases, if I’m wrong it means that the team in question will still get a comp pick for that player, but that it may be in a round higher or lower. But in a few cases (those are bolded), it could change cancellations, possibly taking away or greatly devaluing a projected comp pick—or possibly adding or greatly upgrading a comp pick.
    3rd/4th

    Ryan Jensen (Baltimore): #71
    Projected 3rd/4th cutoff: #96
    Donte Moncrief (Indianapolis): #98
    Anthony Hitchens (Dallas): #125

    4th/5th

    None

    5th/6th

    Danny Amendola (New England): #283
    Projected 5th/6th cutoff: #289

    6th/7th

    Bennie Logan (Kansas City): #451
    AJ McCarron (Cincinnati): #467
    Projected 6th/7th cutoff: #481
    Tramaine Brock (Minnesota): #506

    7th/Qualifying

    Logan Paulsen (San Francisco): #917
    Andre Roberts (Atlanta): #927
    Geno Smith (New York Giants): #954
    Projected 7th/Qualifying cutoff: #962
    Bene Benwikere (Dallas): #971
    Tom Compton (Minnesota): #975
    Brock Osweiler (Denver): #990
    Mike Wallace (Philadelphia): #996

    Qualifying/Valuation Questions

    Teams are becoming more mindful of the rule where a compensatory free agent will not qualify if they are not on their roster past Week 10 (this year, the Sunday games took place on November 11). This year, notable cuts right before this date were Sam Bradford (cut by Arizona November 3), Deonte Thompson (cut by Dallas November 9), and Patrick Omameh (cut by the New York Giants November 10). I have confidence that all three players will not qualify, but it’s worth making this note just in case something goes wrong with those projections.

    Meanwhile, as far as cutoffs go, all of the major close calls hover around which players will or will not qualify as compensatory free agents. Most are straightforward in that they are close to where I have this cutoff estimated at. This has usually been a difficult cutoff to project, so I could be wrong on whether some of those players qualify or not.

    But one of these qualification questions is quite convoluted. That’s the contract Mike Wallace signed with Philadelphia after leaving Baltimore. Wallace’s contract was first reported as a 1 year deal for “up to $4 million“. Then, it got revised down to “$2.5 million with incentives“. Then it was discovered that the 200-pound Wallace had a $585,000 weight bonus achieved for weighing under 250 pounds. And finally, it was discovered that Wallace’s $1 million signing bonus is an Other Amount Treated As Signing Bonus that’s believed to be a guaranteed workout bonus.

    This is a blatant attempt by Eagles GM Howie Roseman to push Wallace’s value in the compensatory formula down so far that he does not qualify as a compensatory free agent, since workout bonuses, weight bonuses, and incentives do not count in the formula. Combine Wallace’s base salary of $915,000 with the fact that he played very few snaps due to going on injured reserve early in the season, and it appears that Roseman may succeed in his goal. By following the known rules of the compensatory formula, I’m projecting that Wallace will not qualify. But I also wouldn’t be surprised if the NFL Management Council sees things differently, for if this is correct, Philadelphia has blazed a new trail in how teams can manipulate the formula to their benefit.
    Possible Altering Scenarios

    Arizona
    If Sam Bradford qualifies, Arizona will not get a 6th for Kareem Martin.
    If Bene Benwikere qualifies, Arizona will not get a 7th for Drew Stanton.
    Atlanta
    If Andre Roberts qualifies but Logan Paulsen does not qualify, Atlanta will be eligible for a 7th for Roberts, but it would be unlikely to make the 32-pick limit.
    If Andre Roberts does not qualify but Logan Paulsen does qualify, Atlanta will not get a 5th for Taylor Gabriel.
    If neither Andre Roberts nor Logan Paulsen qualify, nothing changes for Atlanta.
    Baltimore
    If the entirety of Mike Wallace’s contract is counted, Baltimore could get a 7th for Ben Watson that would likely be the Mr. Irrelevant pick.
    If Mike Wallace’s signing bonus is counted, Baltimore will be eligible for a 7th for him, but it would be unlikely to make the 32-pick limit.
    Dallas
    If Deonte Thompson qualifies and Bene Benwikere does not qualify, Dallas will not get a 4th for Anthony Hitchens.
    If Deonte Thompson does not qualify and Bene Benwikere does qualify, Dallas will be eligible for a 7th for Benwikere, but it would be unlikely to make the 32-pick limit.
    If Deonte Thompson and Bene Benwikere qualify, nothing changes for Dallas.
    Denver
    If Brock Osweiler qualifies, Denver will be eligible for a 7th for him, but it would be unlikely to make the 32-pick limit.
    Minnesota
    If Sam Bradford qualifies, Minnesota will get a 3rd for Case Keenum.
    If Tom Compton qualifies and Tramaine Brock is valued as a 7th, Minnesota will not get a 7th for Brock.
    If Tom Compton qualifies and Tramaine Brock is valued as a 6th, Minnesota will not get a 7th for Shamar Stephen.
    New York Giants
    If Geno Smith does not qualify, or Patrick Omameh does qualify, the New York Giants will not get a 5th for Devon Kennard.
    If Geno Smith does not qualify and Patrick Omameh qualifies, the New York Giants additionally will not get a 4th for Justin Pugh.
    Los Angeles Chargers
    If Geno Smith does not qualify, the Los Angeles Chargers will get a 7th for Matt Slauson.
    Philadelphia
    If the entirety of Mike Wallace’s contract is counted, Philadelphia will not get a 6th for Beau Allen.
    If Mike Wallace’s signing bonus is counted, Philadelphia will not get a 6th for Patrick Robinson.


    https://overthecap.com/projecting-th...nsatory-picks/

  2. #2
    So our comp picks are 666? Yikes!

    Lol.

  3. #3
    Shedding a tear for the failed McCooter trade.

  4. #4
    Paul Dehner Jr.Verified account @pauldehnerjr 19h19 hours agoMore



    Paul Dehner Jr. Retweeted Nick Korte
    Nick is the best at this. Final calculation has the #Bengals getting three 6th rounders in the comp pick equation. On top of the Bene' Benwikere trade and their own pick, would mean FIVE 6th-round picks this year.

  5. #5
    Oh thank god. Because stockpiling late picks has been so helpful to the team so far.

  6. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by membengal View Post
    Oh thank god. Because stockpiling late picks has been so helpful to the team so far.

    they can always trade them. Besides, they've found decent talent in the 5th round recently.

    Since 2012:

    Marvin Jones
    George Iloka
    AJ McCarron
    CJ Uzomah
    Christian Westerman
    Darius Phillips (a slight stretch, but he had a nice rookie year).

  7. #7
    Giving me a list of picks they made before the 6th round isn't exactly compelling. They almost never trade the picks, or have not been very aggressive in doing so in the past. I guess I remain unclear the benefit to stockpiling so many ass end of the draft picks (3 in 7th last year, for instance, which they kept and made selections with).
    Last edited by membengal; 01-08-2019 at 10:53 AM.

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