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Thread: Dare we drink the Kool-Aid?

  1. #1
       
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    Dare we drink the Kool-Aid?

    I've been avoiding this all season, but now we hit the 7 game mark....

    Can we make the playoffs?

    The way the D is playing, it gives us a legitimate chance to win every game. Let's examine our three losses. One tends to learn more in defeat than victory.

    Giants: It exposed our greatest weakness, Offensive Line. We haven't faced an elite Pass rush since, so we don't know how much this unit has improved in pass protection. We took 3 sacks last night, against a beast like Cameron Wake. We can't run the ball either. Are last games run averages are inflated because of Jay's scrambles. 3.5, 3.3, 3.9 are Forte's averages in the last 3 games. Not exactly awe inspiring.

    Seahwaks: This is the only game were our defense laid an egg, a game in which Briggs missed time. Also, the defense had played 2 tough games with a lot of snaps (Giants, Panthers), because of atrocious offensive production. So we need this unit to remain healthy, and for the offense to at least stay on the field enough to avoid gassing our star players, who are all older. The Tampa 2 D is of the bend but don't break variety, which means a lot of snaps for the D, which tends to gas them.

    Redskins: The game that Jay lost. Our defense did everything it could to win that game. Cutler tried harder. It had the same feeling of the 06 superbowl, with Rex playing for the other team.

    So their you have it, the three most glaring weaknesses in the Bears. Off-Line, Jay's indisputable ability to lay an egg, and the lack of depth at D.

    Dare we drink the Kool-Aid?

    The way I see it:

    vs Eagles: A tough one, but we have Marrinelli who faced Vick in Atlanta when he was at Tampa. We aren't going tos top him, buthopefully we'll slow him down some. Our D is based on very good Tacklers, and Peppers has faced off against Vick in the past as well. Those huge arms of his hopefully will help contain him when he rolls left. But it will be up to our O to show up for this one. The Eagles defense has CBs who like to cheat a lot, which is an explosive mix with Jay Cutler. We need his best game of the season for this one. 33% of W

    @ Detroit: We have to win this one. If we can't beat them, we don't deserve the playoffs. It's that simple. 75% of W

    vs New England: A Belichick defense led against Jay Cutler...I foresee planty of Interceptions. Our Defense will be truly battle tested, similar to the Eagles game, as the two most prolific offenses come a knocking. 33% of W

    @ Minnesotta: This is a tough one. The crowd noise could be a factor if the team hasn't quit the year by then. But our D should be enough against a bad O, and their mediocre D should allow us some leeway. 66% of W

    vs Jets: Both teams have suspect QBs. Both teams have good Ds. Both teams have eeked out wins they shouldn't have. But we have home field advantage, and I'll take my Bears in December against a USC QB. 50% of W

    @ Green Bay: I don't see us winning that one. Sorry. Lambeaus is a big advantage, and the division will probably be up for grabs by then. 33%

    The way I see it: We have to win the Detroit and Viking games. We ahve a chance towin the Jets game. I don't think we can win all the games against opportunistic defenses and elite offenses like the Pats and Eagles, or against a division rival on the road like the Packers. If we're truly a playoff team, we should eek out at least something out of them.

    According to those win probabilities, we should earn 2.9 more Wins. A 10-6 record or a 9-5-1 record ought to eek out a WC, a 9-7 will come down to tiebreakers. 10 wins will depend on the tiebreaqker with the Pack.
    “Never ascribe to malice that which can adequately be explained by incompetence.”
    ― Napoleon Bonaparte

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    With their defense and special teams the Bears have a puncher's chance against anybody. Outdoors in December especially. They have got to eliminate the picks.

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    I will not waiver from 9-7. I think we can actually beat the Iggles and the Lions and then will lose last four.
    The podcast: www.polishguypodcast.blogspot.com

    It's a podcast done by a ninja who is Polish!

    "I don't believe in a lot of things, but I believe in duct tape."-Miles on "Lost."

    twitter: @PguyPodcast

  4. #4
    I will always cast a skeptical eye upon Mike Martz' play calling. But if the Bears keep this new run-first focus, they might make a believer out of me.
    Screw you guys, I'm going home.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Polishguy00 View Post
    I will not waiver from 9-7. I think we can actually beat the Iggles and the Lions and then will lose last four.
    Some see the kishka, some just the blood.

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    Quote Originally Posted by GoBigOrGoHome View Post
    I will always cast a skeptical eye upon Mike Martz' play calling. But if the Bears keep this new run-first focus, they might make a believer out of me.
    Let's see the drives, because I'm intersted in seeing how the late clock killing drives colored the game

    Drives
    # 1: R-P-R (R3-P1)
    #2: R-P-R-P-R-R-P-FG (R7-P4)
    #3: P-R-P-P-R-P-R-P-P-P-R-R-P-FG (R12-P12)
    #4: P-R-P-P-P-P-R-R-P-P (INT) (R15-P19)
    #5: R-P-P EOH (R16-P21)
    #6: P-R-R-R-P-P-FG (R19-P24)
    #7: R-R-R-R-R-R-P-P-P-R-P-R-R-R (TD) (R29-P28)
    #8: R-P-P-R-R-P (R32-P31)
    #9: R-R-P (R34-P32)
    #10: R-R-P-R-R-P (R38-P34)

    -So we were moving the ball well when we were balanced at the beggining, but we were having to kick field goals.

    -Then Martz got pass happy and we moved the ball well but got picked, because everybody knew he was going to pass!

    - We came back and ran the ball down their throats (Martz figured something out for the run game in the half time), and scored a TD. By then we were balanced

    - After that it was game over, and we only passed on 3rd downs.

    So no, we weren't balanced yesterday, it was only that Martz figured out something during the half (or Tice did).
    “Never ascribe to malice that which can adequately be explained by incompetence.”
    ― Napoleon Bonaparte

  7. #7
       
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    Quote Originally Posted by bluestree View Post
    Some see the kishka, some just the blood.
    Mmmm, kishka. If you're sending me food, I am happy.

    I do like steaks a little bloody as well.

    Obviously I love my Bears, I am just brutally honest with them. If TJack is starting late in the year, that is one thing that can make me believe 10-6. Any better than that, and we are the 2001 Bears all over again. Hey, I'm not complaining. I love playoff games. This just does not look like a deep run team. I have suffered through every bad run block, every Omiyale false start, every time Webb does not shuffle his feet, every time Cutler has to scramble, etc...

    We do seem to have a bit of luck going our way, though.
    The podcast: www.polishguypodcast.blogspot.com

    It's a podcast done by a ninja who is Polish!

    "I don't believe in a lot of things, but I believe in duct tape."-Miles on "Lost."

    twitter: @PguyPodcast

  8. #8
    Don't underestimate the power of luck, Polish. Just ask the Lions.
    Screw you guys, I'm going home.

  9. #9
       
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    "Dear fans, I peed in that kool-aid"

    - Jay Cutler

  10. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by msclemons View Post
    "Dear fans, I peed in that kool-aid"

    - Jay Cutler
    Beer, meet keyboard.
    Screw you guys, I'm going home.

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