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Thread: Official FPIII Fantasy Football Preview...

  1. #11
       
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    I've got to say I'm not liking the nfl.com site. I need more character availability. Looks like we'll have to utilize this forum for a weekly breakdown.
    "I'd knock your brains out, then pick them up later."

    -Marion Motley

  2. #12
       
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    Quote Originally Posted by Docta View Post
    Well, here's analysis for FP II...

    I'm gonna win.

    But if you want an expert's opinion, go here and plug in your players and scoring settings.

    http://subscribers.footballguys.com/...-team/form.php
    If you think I spent less than an hour on this site last night plugging in teams, well, you'd be wrong.
    "I'd knock your brains out, then pick them up later."

    -Marion Motley

  3. #13
       
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    Quote Originally Posted by Trumpetbdw View Post
    I've got to say I'm not liking the nfl.com site. I need more character availability. Looks like we'll have to utilize this forum for a weekly breakdown.
    I know we have a lot of characters available on this site, so that should work. Although I don't know how many have had a breakdown.

  4. #14
       
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    Well, that my team is in the middle of the road at just about every position isn't really unbelievable when you consider that I picked 6th. The lone exception is tight end, where I went after Finley early and grabbed a good value pick in Hernandez late. I really need everyone to live up to their potential--or Jamaal Charles needs to step up and say, authoritatively, 'I am the best damn runningback in the NFL--and my team should be good... or I'm going to be limping in the middle of the road and get run over. In general, though, I really like my depth at receiver and think Roethlisberger and Kolb were both great values where I took them--I obviously do not share Clem's view of Alexcuses 2.0. I do think Jamaal Charles is going to be a beast and I'm not at all worried about Thomas Jones, but I'm not crazy about the rest of my backs; Marshawn Lynch could revert to pothead, I-don't-give-a-crap form at any time, Mark Ingram is in a crowded backfield in New Orleans, and Tashard Choice's value is contingent on Felix Jones getting hurt (probably not a bad bet, but with the other factors not one you want to bank on). We'll see how this goes, and here are some fearless predictions. (Please remember that everything I'm saying is in good fun, and no one should take it personally, if I'm mocking a player on your fantasy team or on your real team.)

    Other units I like:
    (1) DannyMilk's backfield - Foster and Hillis are in contract years with no one threat to steal goal line carries from either of them.
    (2) Hassan's receivers - really, really nice mix of vertical threat and dink-and-dunk for a PPR league.
    (3) Trumpet's receivers - Megatron, not-suspended Santonio Holmes, and Mike Williams? Not counting two of the best sleepers at receiver in this draft, Antonio Brown and especially Greg Little, who will probably be the #1 in Cleveland by November? Not bad at all, Mr. Trumpet.

    Things I don't like:
    (1) Darvon's depth - Mike Vick and Dallas Clark are lonely without backups, which are necessarily for running quarterbacks and Indianapolis Colts.
    (1a) Not to beat up on Darvon, but sweet Jesus, I would not be comfortable with that stable of runningbacks. Is anyone there even really a starter? Ryan Matthews? Felix Jones? Go with God, my friend.
    (2) Packa's receivers - I know he didn't draft, but Britt and Marshall are WR1s in quarterback hell, Meachem is a Saints receiver (congratulations, he'll have three good games this, predicting when they'll happen will be absolutely impossible), aaaaaaaand Roy Williams (good sleeper pick returning to Martz's offense, but not a guy you want to hang your hopes on, certainly).
    (3) Eaglesnest's team - He'll probably win the league now that I've said this, but I don't feel good about any of these starters except Rivers. You needed a milk carton to find Shonn Greene last year, Michael Turner has more limited value in PPR because he doesn't catch passes- Fred Jackson is probably the best PPR back on this roster, but he's the last one (that's no depth) and you have to wonder if Spiller is going to creep into the line up and take touches away. I really don't like the receivers--Wayne, Lloyd, Moore, Garcon--because of Colts injury report issues, last season made everyone forget this guy is a bag of suck issues, and being a wide receiver on the New Orleans Saints issues. There are also three tight ends, and I don't think any of them are great and/or very tradeable for other assets.

    Three best value picks (Rounds 1-5)
    (1) Matt Forte (Hassan), at 25 - A back like Forte in a Martz offense at the top of the third round is a STEAL. A consistent 1000-500 guy who's never had less than 50 receptions in a season and had 9 total TDs last year. Good work.
    (2) Ben Roethlisberger (me), at 54 - I really like Colts snagging Schaub at 48, but Ben has emerged as an elite NFL quarterback who avoids penetration (well, maybe... HEY-OH!) and puts up elite fantasy numbers. He's going to throw for 4000 with 25 TDs, and you can't expect much better than that from Brees, Brady, or anyone, no matter where you draft them.
    (3) Antonio Gates and Santonio Holmes (Trumpet), at 35 and 38 - This is just a great turn. The quality of top flight wide receivers began to diminish rapidly after Vincent and DeSean Jackson went off the board this round--a lot of questions about Wayne going into this season vis-a-vis Manning's health; where's Miles Austin, exactly?; and Jeremy Maclin is a fragile, vertical, #2; Dez Bryant, see Maclin, except add headcase; and Marques Colston, and I've already discussed the perils of using Saints' receivers--and he got the best tight end on the board, who has true WR1 value, and then he turned around got a great receiver in Holmes who's undervalued because he only played twelve games last year. Well played.

    Three best values (6-15)
    (1) Matthew Stafford (red13), at 90 - This is a great upside pick after drafting Brady early. There's outstanding trade potential here if he stays healthy; I know we don't get too excited about pre-season, but this is a #1 overall who's looked spectacular so far entering his third year. I'm glad we can't start two quarterbacks.
    (2) Pittsburgh Defense (Trumpet), at 134 - How they lasted this long I am not sure. How the Eagles were taken two rounds before them has no explanation except for homerism run amok. I have no interest in hearing about their dream team of defensive backs; this was unwise.
    (3) Anquan Boldin (Andy), at 61 - I like him a lot more than the receivers who were drafted around him. Glad you made it on here, Team Beerdarts.

    Five reaches or picks I just don't like (hopefully this isn't too repetitive)
    (1) Brandon Llyod (56) - He should have negative receiving yards this year to come back down to earth after last year's cyclone of overachievement.
    (2) Ryan Matthews (39) - Have you ever listened to 'Moonlight Sonata' by Ludwig von Beethoven? It is beautiful, and it is the sound of your frustration every time Antonio Gates catches a touchdown pass of less than five yards this season.
    (3) Jimmy Graham (76) - Every year, a tight end makes a few plays at the end of the year and everyone gets way too excited about him. Yeah, that's this guy.
    (4) Chad Ochocinco (58) - I got Deion Branch at 126. Let's remember this.
    (5) Michael Crabtree (102) - I did this, and I think it was fairly stupid.
    @kocsan

  5. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by Trumpetbdw View Post
    I've got to say I'm not liking the nfl.com site. I need more character availability. Looks like we'll have to utilize this forum for a weekly breakdown.
    Did you try making a league story, or did you just try the message board? If you wrote too much for a league story, then nfl.com is fine.
    If you ask me how I want to be remembered, it is as a winner. You know what a winner is? A winner is somebody who has given his best effort, who has tried the hardest they possibly can, who has utilized every ounce of energy and strength within them to accomplish something. It doesn't mean that they accomplished it or failed, it means that they've given it their best. That's a winner.”
    ― Walter Payton

  6. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by mkocs6 View Post
    Three best value picks (Rounds 1-5)
    (1) Matt Forte (Hassan), at 25 - A back like Forte in a Martz offense at the top of the third round is a STEAL. A consistent 1000-500 guy who's never had less than 50 receptions in a season and had 9 total TDs last year. Good work.
    (2) Ben Roethlisberger (me), at 54 - I really like Colts snagging Schaub at 48, but Ben has emerged as an elite NFL quarterback who avoids penetration (well, maybe... HEY-OH!) and puts up elite fantasy numbers. He's going to throw for 4000 with 25 TDs, and you can't expect much better than that from Brees, Brady, or anyone, no matter where you draft them.
    (3) Antonio Gates and Santonio Holmes (Trumpet), at 35 and 38 - This is just a great turn. The quality of top flight wide receivers began to diminish rapidly after Vincent and DeSean Jackson went off the board this round--a lot of questions about Wayne going into this season vis-a-vis Manning's health; where's Miles Austin, exactly?; and Jeremy Maclin is a fragile, vertical, #2; Dez Bryant, see Maclin, except add headcase; and Marques Colston, and I've already discussed the perils of using Saints' receivers--and he got the best tight end on the board, who has true WR1 value, and then he turned around got a great receiver in Holmes who's undervalued because he only played twelve games last year. Well played.

    Five reaches or picks I just don't like (hopefully this isn't too repetitive)
    (1) Brandon Llyod (56) - He should have negative receiving yards this year to come back down to earth after last year's cyclone of overachievement.
    (2) Ryan Matthews (39) - Have you ever listened to 'Moonlight Sonata' by Ludwig von Beethoven? It is beautiful, and it is the sound of your frustration every time Antonio Gates catches a touchdown pass of less than five yards this season.
    (3) Jimmy Graham (76) - Every year, a tight end makes a few plays at the end of the year and everyone gets way too excited about him. Yeah, that's this guy.
    (4) Chad Ochocinco (58) - I got Deion Branch at 126. Let's remember this.
    (5) Michael Crabtree (102) - I did this, and I think it was fairly stupid.
    Antonio Gates might miss a few games to start the season. He just got off the PUP list, and got foot surgery this offseason. Age has to affect him someday. And you have to remember that Holmes' QB is Sanchez.

    Receivers usually don't have fluke seasons. Lloyd still had a great year. The reason everybody always took a chance on him was because they knew he has some potential. His numbers might drop a bit, but he's still a good pick at 56. And tight ends are tight ends. There are only about 4 or 5 elite ones this year. People are picking Graham, because he has played well before as a back-up...and he has Brees.
    Last edited by Docta; 08-30-2011 at 10:55 PM.
    If you ask me how I want to be remembered, it is as a winner. You know what a winner is? A winner is somebody who has given his best effort, who has tried the hardest they possibly can, who has utilized every ounce of energy and strength within them to accomplish something. It doesn't mean that they accomplished it or failed, it means that they've given it their best. That's a winner.”
    ― Walter Payton

  7. #17
       
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    (1) Darvon's depth - Mike Vick and Dallas Clark are lonely without backups, which are necessarily for running quarterbacks and Indianapolis Colts.
    (1a) Not to beat up on Darvon, but sweet Jesus, I would not be comfortable with that stable of runningbacks. Is anyone there even really a starter? Ryan Matthews? Felix Jones? Go with God, my friend.
    It's ok. I have a strategy. Remembers it IS PPR. Also I like to take people in my Fantasy teams that I want to watch. I am intrigued if Vick is going to stay good or flame out. I think Tom Bundchen will find Ocho a lot. Remember the first year of Moss? Greg Jennings should give me quite a few big games. RBs are not my strength, but people not used to playing PPR overvalue the RB position vis a vis QB and WR. And you notice that I didn't draft a Defense. I have a unique Defensive strategy.

    Not a REAL strong team, but an intriguing one. I think Ocho is my sleeper and Vick might be a problem. Depth? What's that? I love spectacular failure.

  8. #18
       
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    Quote Originally Posted by Docta View Post
    Antonio Gates might miss a few games to start the season. He just got off the PUP list, and got foot surgery this offseason. Age has to affect him someday. And you have to remember that Holmes' QB is Sanchez.

    Receivers usually don't have fluke seasons. Lloyd still had a great year. The reason everybody always took a chance on him was because they knew he has some potential. His numbers might drop a bit, but he's still a good pick at 56. And tight ends are tight ends. There are only about 4 or 5 elite ones this year. People are picking Graham, because he has played well before as a back-up...and he has Brees.
    Lloyd had a fantastic season, in part, for the same reason Kyle Orton had a fantastic season. He had a habit of hauling in a lot of catches, yards, and touchdowns in the 4th quarter when the Broncos were getting shellacked; I'm not sure how effective it is to bet on that again. His first even decent year (which happened to be an exceptional came when he was almost 30. I need to see more from him before I take him ahead of Anquan Boldin.

    Regarding Gates--at some point, the best tight end is a better bet than a middling WR1 or a good WR2 playing in another receiver's shadow on a good team. That happened in this draft, in my opinion, around pick 30. Even if Gates misses the first two or three games, this is a great get for the other thirteen games--you can plug and play a tight end for a week or two to get this kind of player and this kind of goal line receiver later.

    As far as Graham, Jeremy Shockey's numbers weren't exactly mind-blowing in New Orleans. Brees tends to spread the ball all over the place, which tends to make any New Orleans receiving option a tentative fantasy play at best.

    Just my opinion.
    @kocsan

  9. #19
       
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    Quote Originally Posted by mkocs6 View Post
    (2) Ryan Matthews (39) - Have you ever listened to 'Moonlight Sonata' by Ludwig von Beethoven? It is beautiful, and it is the sound of your frustration every time Antonio Gates catches a touchdown pass of less than five yards this season.
    Excellent selection of Moonlight Sonata there. I think Pachabel's Canon would have been the copout piece you could have selected, so I think you did a great job of going a bit outside the box with a little Beethoven.

    But if you listen off in the distance, when my team hits the field, , you'll hear "Requiem" by Mozart. It is at that moment you'll realize that your team never had a chance.
    "I'd knock your brains out, then pick them up later."

    -Marion Motley

  10. #20
       
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    Oh, and the rest of your breakdown was outstanding as well. Grade A stuff, my friend.
    "I'd knock your brains out, then pick them up later."

    -Marion Motley

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